I think there are a few assumptions in the scenario above (as it relates to the Tempest program) .........................
No assumptions, merely stating the obvious.
Aye the glory days of British aviation are long over.

But it would be wrong to right off BAE Systems as a nobody .................
I never said that BAE is a nobody, but if it were easy to develop a stealth fighter on their own they would already have done that at the time of the F-22, yet they kept working on the non-stealth Typhoon/Eurofighter.

It's ironic that 80 years ago the Hawker Typhoon had disappointing performance and the Hawker Tempest was designed to be what the Typhoon should have been, but really came to late, and now Britain again wants to develop a Tempest to replace a Typhoon, but again too late.

There simply is no room for two fighter projects in Europe.
Maybe not even room for one, as most European nations already ordered F-35s which they are not going to replace them already 15 years from now.
Sweden will also buy F-35s because otherwise they will look like a paria. Always stayed neutral and now they act like a toddler that is afraid of the neighbour's dog and tries to hide under mother's skirt?
There is a price to pay for becoming a NATO member and part of that will be: buying the most modern fighter available to equip at least two squadrons.

The only fighter project that survives will be the European SCAF, not the English Tempest.
 
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I never said that BAE is a nobody, but if it were easy to develop a stealth fighter on their own they would already have done that at the time of the F-22, yet they kept working on the non-stealth Typhoon/Eurofighter.
You could say that for all the European defence companies working on the Typhoon, and Dassault working on the Rafale.

The only fighter project that survives will be the European SCAF, not the English Tempest.
Based on your own logic, neither will survive.
 
t if it were easy to develop a stealth fighter on their own they would already have done that at the time of the F-22, yet they kept working on the non-stealth Typhoon/Eurofighter.
It's governments that set performance criteria and budgets for production, not contractors. Of course the major companies had stealth research and development programmes under way - Replica, Lampyridae etc. - but they weren't going to proceed to production until governments were prepared to request and fund them.

Meanwhile, Typhoon has continued to be a lucrative earner, selling to companies that were forbidden to buy the F-22. Why kill a goose that lays golden eggs?


Maybe not even room for one, as most European nations already ordered F-35s which they are not going to replace them already 15 years from now.
Stealth is an attribute not a category. The F-35 is a strike fighter, quite different from an air superiority type. Even if Typhoon and Tempest are multirole, range, speed, altitude, sensor, and payload requirements make them fundamentally different from a tactical strike aircraft - and such air superiority aircraft are necessary to round out a credible air force if you can afford it (which many can't).

Sweden will also buy F-35s because otherwise they will look like a paria. Always stayed neutral and now they act like a toddler that is afraid of the neighbour's dog and tries to hide under mother's skirt?
Is that tone really necessary? I seem to recall there is a war happening somewhere. Putin has made it clear that he holds grudges that go back centuries to when Sweden was an enemy. The Cold War made neutrality arguably a sensible option for Sweden and Finland, but Russian revanchism now alters the equation.

Addendum: The RAF of course operated the GR4 Tornado (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panavia_Tornado#Tornado_IDS), a very capable multi-role aircraft, but also found it necessary to acquire the air defence variant (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panavia_Tornado_ADV). The F-35 succeeds the Tornado IDS and Harrier/Sea Harrier, Typhoon succeeded the Tornado ADV, but Tempest is now needed to follow Typhoon as it ages and now Japan sees a need for it too in response to China.
 
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Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy have decided to jointly develop a common aircraft for the next-generation fighter of the Air Self-Defense Force and the Royal Air Force. It aims to deploy around 2035. A joint statement is expected to be released on the 9th.

It is said that it was possible to secure the degree of freedom of upgrade that the Japanese side valued by overseeing the overall design of the aircraft and system development.

It plans to acquire about 300 units in three countries, and aims to export finished products overseas. In Japan, the 'three principles for transferring defense equipment and operating guidelines have become a stepping stone for export, and the government and the ruling party are negotiating to reexamine them.
 
Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy have decided to jointly develop a common aircraft for the next-generation fighter of the Air Self-Defense Force and the Royal Air Force. It aims to deploy around 2035. A joint statement is expected to be released on the 9th.

It is said that it was possible to secure the degree of freedom of upgrade that the Japanese side valued by overseeing the overall design of the aircraft and system development.

It plans to acquire about 300 units in three countries, and aims to export finished products overseas. In Japan, the 'three principles for transferring defense equipment and operating guidelines have become a stepping stone for export, and the government and the ruling party are negotiating to reexamine them.

Good news for GCAP, but why only 300 units for each user?
 
Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy have decided to jointly develop a common aircraft for the next-generation fighter of the Air Self-Defense Force and the Royal Air Force. It aims to deploy around 2035. A joint statement is expected to be released on the 9th.

It is said that it was possible to secure the degree of freedom of upgrade that the Japanese side valued by overseeing the overall design of the aircraft and system development.

It plans to acquire about 300 units in three countries, and aims to export finished products overseas. In Japan, the 'three principles for transferring defense equipment and operating guidelines have become a stepping stone for export, and the government and the ruling party are negotiating to reexamine them.

Good news for GCAP, but why only 300 units for each user?

I guess that'd be the initial plan. JASDF will definitely acquire an additional 100 units to replace the F-15MJs.
 
Well it says "300 units in three countries" which would indicate a total production run of 300 for all three nations combined.

Perhaps split something like 120 Japan/120 UK/ 60 Italy? That would seem fairly logical, the RAF only has 150 Typhoons, Italy 96 and Japan has 155 F-15Js. Allowing for the inevitable reduction in numbers due to the higher price tag and force reductions and the fact that all three air forces have F-35s that seems a reasonable figure.

(Theoretical F-35 ratios by Tempest IOC should be 147 Japan, 74-138 UK, 75 Italy (+15 Navy))
 
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So the UK would only be getting 120 GCAPs compared to 150 Typhoons? I take it the GCAP will be much more expensive than the Typhoon, unless the price comes down once it starts to get exported.
 
The future of any new generation combat aircraft must depend on what Russia and China are able to develop and deploy in the next decade.
This would now seem to mean China since it is hard to see Russia doing so.
This should help Tempest as Japan will be keen to have a top of the range replacement for its F15s. Italy works well with Japan they both have the Boeing 767 AWACS and both manufacture precision industrial machinery.
Japan has long experience of coping with Britain as an awkward partner for industrial projects. But from the constitutional monarchy to a powerful navy the two countries have much in common.
But all three are practical countries and a decent US competitor at the right price could kill Tempest.
 

..... The F-35 is a strike fighter, quite different from an air superiority type. .........

Sweden will also buy F-35s because otherwise they will look like a paria. Always stayed neutral and now they act like a toddler that is afraid of the neighbour's dog and tries to hide under mother's skirt?
Is that tone really necessary? I seem to recall there is a war happening somewhere. Putin has made it clear that he holds grudges that go back centuries to when Sweden was an enemy. The Cold War made neutrality arguably a sensible option for Sweden and Finland, but Russian revanchism now alters the equation.
Sweden has always been opportunistic. Ask Norwegian elders how they think about the Swedish "neutrality" during WW2. Now they seem to think they can get a free ride within NATO, just join, sit back, and profit from the protection by other nations, free of charge.

F-35 is multi-role. I would rather rely on an F-35 for air superiority than a Typhoon or Tornado or Gripen or Rafale.
 
Sweden has always been opportunistic.

All governments are, and for the sake of their mandates, they should be.

Ask Norwegian elders how they think about the Swedish "neutrality" during WW2. Now they seem to think they can get a free ride within NATO, just join, sit back, and profit from the protection by other nations, free of charge.

We're not refighting WWII, we're concerned with someone still bearing a grudge for these wars:


I was not aware that NATO has subscription fees but gives waivers or that Sweden and Finland have no armed forces or weapons manufacturers of their own. I was also under the delusion that the NATO treaty had something called 'Article 5,' meaning that is, say, Türkiye was attacked, Sweden and Finland would be obligated to come to its aid.

F-35 is multi-role. I would rather rely on an F-35 for air superiority than a Typhoon or Tornado or Gripen or Rafale.

The USAF disagrees with you about the use of strike-optimised jack-of-all-trades aircraft for air superiority. Now the RAF, other European air forces, and Japan have the same opinion, which is why they're aiming to keep the class of the Typhoon type but realise that those particular planes are ageing. They're not ordering more F-35s to succeed them. I suspect that their strategic analysis is not entirely incompetent.
 
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View: https://twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1601064213606457344

tempest.jpg
 
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JOINT LEADERS’ STATEMENT

As leaders of Japan, Italy and the UK, we are committed to upholding the rules-based, free and open international order, which is more important than ever at a time when these principles are contested, and threats and aggression are increasing. Since defending our democracy, economy and security, and protecting regional stability, are ever more important, we need strong defence and security partnerships, underpinned and reinforced by a credible deterrent capability.

Our three nations have longstanding, close relationships based on the shared values of freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law. Today, we are taking the next step in our deepening trilateral partnership. We are announcing the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) – an ambitious endeavour to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft by 2035.

Through the GCAP, we will build on our longstanding defence relationships. The GCAP will accelerate our advanced military capability and technological advantage. It will deepen our defence co-operation, science and technology collaboration, integrated supply chains, and further strengthen our defence industrial base.

This programme will deliver wider economic and industrial benefits, supporting jobs and livelihoods across Japan, Italy and the UK. It will attract investment in research and development into digital design and advanced manufacture processes. It will provide opportunities for our next generation of highly skilled engineers and technicians. By working together in a spirit of equal partnership, we are sharing the costs and the benefits of this investment in our people and technologies.

Importantly, the programme will support the sovereign capability of all three countries to design, deliver and upgrade cutting-edge combat air capabilities, well into the future. This programme has been designed with our Allies and partners at its very heart. Future interoperability with the United States, with NATO and with our partners across Europe, the Indo-Pacific and globally – is reflected in the name we have chosen for our programme. This concept will be at the centre of its development. We share ambition for this aircraft to be the centrepiece of a wider combat air system that will function across multiple domains.

Our hope is that the Global Combat Air Programme, and through it our capability partnership, will be a cornerstone of global security, stability and prosperity in the coming decades.


 
Good news for GCAP, but why only 300 units for each user?
That's 300 in total for those three countries, not each. Eventually the number will grow since there are future demands within those countries that are not represented in that "300" figure (eg: Japan will need to replace F-15JSI in the future and they will most certainly do so with F-X).

Perhaps split something like 120 Japan/120 UK/ 60 Italy?
JASDF's current demand accounts for the replacement of around 90 F-2 fighters with 90 F-X. Though like I've said that will not be the end of their procurement.
 
Good news for GCAP, but why only 300 units for each user?
That's 300 in total for those three countries, not each. Eventually the number will grow since there are future demands within those countries that are not represented in that "300" figure (eg: Japan will need to replace F-15JSI in the future and they will most certainly do so with F-X).

Perhaps split something like 120 Japan/120 UK/ 60 Italy?
JASDF's current demand accounts for the replacement of around 90 F-2 fighters with 90 F-X. Though like I've said that will not be the end of their procurement.

Thanks for the info Maro.Kyo. It will be interesting in the long run to see just how many GCAPs will be ordered.
 
Has to be said but this is a bit of a triumph for British diplomacy and BAE who have put in the hard yards over many years, they had to do the same with Meteor.

If only they could have given the land domain the same focus over the last 30 years...
 
Has to be said but this is a bit of a triumph for British diplomacy and BAE who have put in the hard yards over many years, they had to do the same with Meteor.

If only they could have given the land domain the same focus over the last 30 years...

According to one of the Asahi Shimbun(Japan's 2nd largest newspaper organization) journalists, GCAP is actually the legacy of the former PM Boris Johnson.

It is said that Mr. Johnson had been enthusiastic about merging the future fighter programme with Japan even after Lockheed Martin was selected as the F-X partner for once.

After Lockheed Martin insisted that the F-X should be an unmanned aerial vehicle and sensitive technology-sharing negotiations with the US government also broke down, Japan's Ministry of Defense and Finance reviewed the UK's proposal seriously, which led to GCAP.
 
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Just ponder for a moment the responsibilities of these elected Ministers trying to do the right thing...for IOC 2035. £Bns.

dagger #831 doubting HMG's "past attitude to" UK Aero. Others: "glory days are gone". There were no glory days...unless you measure by business profit performance, in which case today and recently are glorious.

It was clear to me that EF2000 should have been cancelled when we signed Agreements with Yeltsin's Russia, 1992, that we ceased mutual AW targeting. Aren't we all glad I was not the Minister?

uk75 840 makes 2 key points: F-22 export what If. Surely UK would have done then what he alludes to as The experience of working with the German government on Typhoon? Through Party changes of political fortune FRG was wondering whether £Bns of Typhoon were truly necessary. If US Govt had offered UK Tier 1 status on F-22, I submit...Italy/Spain on Rafale, FRG on nothing.

If I were today's Min. of Defence being lobbied to accelerate my 48 and increase to (70? 138?) F-35s, and to explore loyal wingmen and everything-Cyber, while dissing it all as obsolete from 2035 so GCAP, please...I might need a brisk power nap.
 
Looks like GCAP is going to be a system of systems instead of just one aircraft as I originally thought, interesting.
There might be some thought into making it such, not sure if it would succeed in the long term though.
 
Looks like GCAP is going to be a system of systems instead of just one aircraft as I originally thought, interesting.
The UK is looking at that side of things for its own use under the FCAS programme. GCAP appears to be the manned combat aircraft only. Presumably Italy will continue in FCAS (or have its own programme for some aspects),
 
The wider system seems to have gone very quiet since Project Mosquito was axed though.
In one sense a pure Tempest FCAS makes little sense, it would ideally be grafted onto F-35 too.
The sceptic in me doubts BAE would have the resources to tackle their part of Tempest and a UCAV at the same time to the same timeframe - which makes the cancellation of Mosquito all the more puzzling because it was not BAE and therefore gave some broader base to the industry.

Aren't we all glad I was not the Minister?
Yes because likely as not BAE Systems sells up its entire airframe manufacturing assets in 2010 (post Nimrod debacle).

You do make a good point about F-35 numbers (which the shadow defence secretary has also mentioned). It seems reasonably certain that we will purchase up to 74 (why pay £9 billion to be a Tier 1 nation if you have no desire to buy the damn thing?). 138 feels like a fantasy - why would the RAF/FAA need 138 V/STOL jets given we only have two carriers? Swapping Bs for As seems very unlikely to avoid a clash with Tempest. Would it be a stretch to say by 2045-50 the F-35 fleet might be almost entirely CSG focused?
 
Sweden has always been opportunistic.

All governments are, and for the sake of their mandates, they should be.

Ask Norwegian elders how they think about the Swedish "neutrality" during WW2. Now they seem to think they can get a free ride within NATO, just join, sit back, and profit from the protection by other nations, free of charge.

We're not refighting WWII, we're concerned with someone still bearing a grudge for these wars:


I was not aware that NATO has subscription fees but gives waivers or that Sweden and Finland have no armed forces or weapons manufacturers of their own. I was also under the delusion that the NATO treaty had something called 'Article 5,' meaning that is, say, Türkiye was attacked, Sweden and Finland would be obligated to come to its aid.

F-35 is multi-role. I would rather rely on an F-35 for air superiority than a Typhoon or Tornado or Gripen or Rafale.

The USAF disagrees with you about the use of strike-optimised jack-of-all-trades aircraft for air superiority. Now the RAF, other European air forces, and Japan have the same opinion, which is why they're aiming to keep the class of the Typhoon type but realise that those particular planes are ageing. They're not ordering more F-35s to succeed them. I suspect that their strategic analysis is not entirely incompetent.
I was referring to Swedens 'opportunistic' attitude when it comes to their past "neutrality".
During WW2 they pretended to be neutral but actually collaborated with Germany.
During the cold war they were neutral but assumed that NATO would come to their rescue anyway.
Zelensky thought the same when already before the war he imposed laws that discriminated the Russian speaking minority. But he was wrong, NATO did not send armed forces but merely weapons.
That was a wake-up call for Sweden who now want to join NATO to benefit from 'Article 5', not so much to come to the aid of other NATO members, and especially not Türkiye who tried to block Sweden from joining NATO.
I call Sweden's behavior of the past 85 years 'opportunistic' but I suppose it could also be called 'smart'.

Through the centuries there have been many many many wars in Europe. If all countries would hold still a grudge against each other because of that there could not be a NATO or an EU or a Schengen treaty. Only countries with a dissatisfied Russian speaking minority are at risk from Russia.

The F-35 is not as good as F-22 when it comes to air superiority, but as a 5th generation stealth fighter it would have no trouble shooting down a 4.5 generation non-stealth Typhoon before the Typhoon pilot even knew there was an F-35 in the air. Stealth is not just an attribute, it is a different class of plane.
 
Not sure if this is relevant but:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wj422xeZ2g
Japan's F-X fighter program will merge with the Tempest program.
I kinda expected this because judging from the concept arts and mockups of their jets, they look almost similar to one another, and they share almost the same exact missions and planned technologies. The F-X program team and Team Tempest might as well collaborate together and pool their resources into developing their Sixth-Generation Fighter, sharing the best of both worlds.
 
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Not sure if this is relevant but:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wj422xeZ2g
Japan's F-X fighter program will merge with the Tempest program.
I kinda expected this because judging from the concept arts and mockups of their jets, they look almost similar to one another, and they share almost the same exact missions and planned technologies. The F-X program team and Team Tempest might as well collaborate together and pool their resources into developing their Sixth-Generation Fighter, sharing the best of both worlds.

It will be interesting to see what the final GCAP design will look like once the design is frozen and all three countries agree to the design.
 
Sweden has always been opportunistic.

All governments are, and for the sake of their mandates, they should be.

Ask Norwegian elders how they think about the Swedish "neutrality" during WW2. Now they seem to think they can get a free ride within NATO, just join, sit back, and profit from the protection by other nations, free of charge.

We're not refighting WWII, we're concerned with someone still bearing a grudge for these wars:


I was not aware that NATO has subscription fees but gives waivers or that Sweden and Finland have no armed forces or weapons manufacturers of their own. I was also under the delusion that the NATO treaty had something called 'Article 5,' meaning that is, say, Türkiye was attacked, Sweden and Finland would be obligated to come to its aid.

F-35 is multi-role. I would rather rely on an F-35 for air superiority than a Typhoon or Tornado or Gripen or Rafale.

The USAF disagrees with you about the use of strike-optimised jack-of-all-trades aircraft for air superiority. Now the RAF, other European air forces, and Japan have the same opinion, which is why they're aiming to keep the class of the Typhoon type but realise that those particular planes are ageing. They're not ordering more F-35s to succeed them. I suspect that their strategic analysis is not entirely incompetent.
I was referring to Swedens 'opportunistic' attitude when it comes to their past "neutrality".
During WW2 they pretended to be neutral but actually collaborated with Germany.
During the cold war they were neutral but assumed that NATO would come to their rescue anyway.
Zelensky thought the same when already before the war he imposed laws that discriminated the Russian speaking minority. But he was wrong, NATO did not send armed forces but merely weapons.
That was a wake-up call for Sweden who now want to join NATO to benefit from 'Article 5', not so much to come to the aid of other NATO members, and especially not Türkiye who tried to block Sweden from joining NATO.
I call Sweden's behavior of the past 85 years 'opportunistic' but I suppose it could also be called 'smart'.

Through the centuries there have been many many many wars in Europe. If all countries would hold still a grudge against each other because of that there could not be a NATO or an EU or a Schengen treaty. Only countries with a dissatisfied Russian speaking minority are at risk from Russia.

The F-35 is not as good as F-22 when it comes to air superiority, but as a 5th generation stealth fighter it would have no trouble shooting down a 4.5 generation non-stealth Typhoon before the Typhoon pilot even knew there was an F-35 in the air. Stealth is not just an attribute, it is a different class of plane.
Fortunately, the f22, f35 and typhoon are all on one team. The other team are flying warmed over models from the tornado time. U.K. as an example, can still afford to run 2 airframes, which gives several benefits. Smaller countries understandably have to run one airframe.

I’d think today, there are very few dissatisfied Russian minorities, most are thanking their lucky stars.

My limited understanding on ww2 Sweden, was that hitler made clear he would invade them(as Norway was) if they didn’t provide coal, iron etc. easy to say today that they should have fought or made them invade, but things looked a bit different in 39.

Cold War was a different time,’ buffer countries’ had to walk a narrow line, Between 2 nuclear armed behemoths. Given where we are now, I’d say most made an ok job of it.
 
Not sure if this is relevant but:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wj422xeZ2g
Japan's F-X fighter program will merge with the Tempest program.
I kinda expected this because judging from the concept arts and mockups of their jets, they look almost similar to one another, and they share almost the same exact missions and planned technologies. The F-X program team and Team Tempest might as well collaborate together and pool their resources into developing their Sixth-Generation Fighter, sharing the best of both worlds.

It will be interesting to see what the final GCAP design will look like once the design is frozen and all three countries agree to the design.
Yep. I anticipate that it might most likely be the second (Or third, if FCAS gets there faster) Sixth Generation fighter to be up in the air, after the United States' Next Generation Air Dominance
 
Not sure if this is relevant but:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wj422xeZ2g
Japan's F-X fighter program will merge with the Tempest program.
I kinda expected this because judging from the concept arts and mockups of their jets, they look almost similar to one another, and they share almost the same exact missions and planned technologies. The F-X program team and Team Tempest might as well collaborate together and pool their resources into developing their Sixth-Generation Fighter, sharing the best of both worlds.

It will be interesting to see what the final GCAP design will look like once the design is frozen and all three countries agree to the design.
Yep. I anticipate that it might most likely be the second (Or third, if FCAS gets there faster) Sixth Generation fighter to be up in the air, after the United States' Next Generation Air Dominance
Given Trappier's recent comments there is little chance of FCAS arriving before GCAP. As late as 2050 has been mooted...
 
Not sure if this is relevant but:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wj422xeZ2g
Japan's F-X fighter program will merge with the Tempest program.
I kinda expected this because judging from the concept arts and mockups of their jets, they look almost similar to one another, and they share almost the same exact missions and planned technologies. The F-X program team and Team Tempest might as well collaborate together and pool their resources into developing their Sixth-Generation Fighter, sharing the best of both worlds.

It will be interesting to see what the final GCAP design will look like once the design is frozen and all three countries agree to the design.
Yep. I anticipate that it might most likely be the second (Or third, if FCAS gets there faster) Sixth Generation fighter to be up in the air, after the United States' Next Generation Air Dominance
Given Trappier's recent comments there is little chance of FCAS arriving before GCAP. As late as 2050 has been mooted...
I see. So that means GCAP will be far ahead of FCAS. In that case, it might be better for the FCAS program to merge with the GCAP program, as one Italian Air Force chief once sad (From the article I read): “investing huge financial resources in two equivalent programs is unthinkable.”
 
How about we hear a Japanese perspective?

Janes Defence Weekly's Takahashi Kosuke has a piece on the subject in The Diplomat.


Note the Source Code issue and how this profoundly impacts the addition of ANY content by the user nation.
If the UK wants to add a weapon to the JSF integration list, it would be at the back of the queue......a queue that's very long and on which progress is now grindingly slow. Unless US Government put pressure on LM to fast track it through.
US weapons providers would then lobby the US Government to refuse, as they would claim US sourced weapons can do the job and secure US jobs....
Which would put the UK in position of having to essentially wait forever for it's weapon cleared for use, or abandon it (along with UK jobs) for waiting in the queue for US weapons.
Unless the UK cracked open the sourcecode and violated IP rights. Creating a diplomatic storm as LM and US providers would throw a fit and lobbying cash to punish the UK.
 
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