Asteroid Death in 2032 1/67 chance

[Arjen]

Dark, unreflective 100m+ diameter bodies in an Asteroid Belt containing solar system that is very, very, very big. I doubt anyone has found a method to find them all - reflective or unreflective. In the unlikely event that the job is finished, I would like to know how long it took. Then take into account whatever's hiding in the Oort Cloud.

 

[Josh_TN]

100m, certainly not. The current rock of interest is not drastically smaller. 100km? I am skeptical anything that large has gone unnoticed inside Saturn orbit. But it’s a moot point; has little to do with what we are talking about, as deflection would not even be an option at that size.

 

[martinbayer]

It would have to be something with a highly eccentric orbit that doesn’t come around often.

Just once could be enough...

 

[PMN1]

Likely impact sites.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887939413054996494

View: https://x.com/astroEdLu/status/1887939413054996494

Mmmhh the ESA launch site at Korou is looking a bit iffy...

 

[Archibald]

Mmmhh the ESA launch site at Korou is looking a bit iffy...

Drats. Or: it could be a golden opportunity to turn the much maligned Ariane 6 into a hero, and screw the insufferable SpaceX fanboys in passing.
Common you a-hole rogue space rock : go ahead... make my day (Sudden impact : a rather infortunate movie title, even with a space cowboy)

 

[Hobbes]

A billion miles is slightly more than Saturns orbit, and well short of Uranus. Color me skeptical there are 100 km wide objects floating around undetected in that range. It would have to be something with a highly eccentric orbit that doesn’t come around often.

The asteroid that this thread is about has a diameter of about 50 meters, not 100 km. But I see now you were answering a post that does talk about a 100 km asteroid.

JPL says:
"With over 90% of the near-Earth objects larger than one kilometer already discovered,the NEO Program is now focusing on finding 90% of the NEO population larger than 140 meters."

 

[Antonio]

K-T has NOTHING to do with volcanism, the proof of that is the Iridium found in that rock layer (which is only sourced from meteorites).

K-T was a consequence of meteorite impact. As you say, Iridium traces prove it.

But a "contemporaneous emplacement of the volcanic Deccan Traps also affected global climate before, during, and after the mass extinction"

Source:

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/doi/10.1130/B37446.1/648842/Deep-marine-records-of-Deccan-Trap-volcanism

 

[kocovgoce]

I live 2300 km away from Santorini, but I'm not sure it would be enough if it blew a tantrum...

I am only 600 km away from Santorini and 576 km west from Mount Vesuvius.
Maybe because more and more gas exploration is taking place in the Aegean Sea, it is the reason for the earthquakes in Santorini, it seems that entire plates are being held together by gas.

 

[Scott Kenny]

B-83 is still in active stockpile.

Biden administration was attempting to retire the type, announcement made in 2022. Not sure if any progress was made.

A handful of B-53 physics packages are reserved for “planetary defense” per budget docs.

According to both AP and Wired, the last B53 (no hyphen in nuclear weapon designations BTW) was dismantled in 2011.

Maybe because more and more gas exploration is taking place in the Aegean Sea, it is the reason for the earthquakes in Santorini, it seems that entire plates are being held together by gas.

Fracking and Geothermal sure seem to cause lots of low-energy earthquakes (under 5.0 Richter). So far it's only been correlations, though.

 

[Josh_TN]

Biden administration was attempting to retire the type, announcement made in 2022. Not sure if any progress was made.

According to both AP and Wired, the last B53 (no hyphen in nuclear weapon designations BTW) was dismantled in 2011.

AFAIK the Biden administration never publicly carried through with the retirement, and I expect they were waiting for B61-13 to do so. It seems likely Trump will reverse retirement (again) in any case. Regardless, there’s no way hundreds of bombs were disassembled that fast: complete B83s definitely exist somewhere.

All B53s are retired/dismantled but some CSAs were retained for “planetary defense “, page 41:

https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-14-449.pdf#page=46

 

[Scott Kenny]

B53s would definitely be better for asteroid diversion, 10MT beats 1.2MT any day of the week.

I'm just not convinced that any are still around or are able to be reassembled.

 

[Justo Miranda]

A contrarian position would be that your example actually is a statistical likelihood. I don't know what era those bullets are from, but I recall them being from either WW1 or WW2? Given ChatGPT claims around 70 billion bullets were fired in WW2 within limited physical battlespaces and often in streams from automatic weapons, I'd say hits like that pictured are almost inevitable.

(When asked the same question again, Chat GPT claimed "hundreds of billions" of bullets were estimated fired in WW2, with 60 billion manufactured by the USA alone. It's WW1 estimate was 6 billion the first time I asked, then 700 billion the second . I think it's safe to assume only that it was "lots and lots" and that ChatGPT should not be relied upon for anything.)

A contrary position would be that in the case of all humanity locked in one place, it only takes a single bullet, and it only needs to happen once.

https://www.businessinsider.com/when-nuclear-war-almost-happened-2018-4

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aeZJqNht9izeLCpkm/9-26-is-petrov-day

https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwi...ings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02837-6

 

[Justo Miranda]

I am only 600 km away from Santorini and 576 km west from Mount Vesuvius.
Maybe because more and more gas exploration is taking place in the Aegean Sea, it is the reason for the earthquakes in Santorini, it seems that entire plates are being held together by gas.

That's the same thing they said about fracking. The only gas extraction that does not produce earthquakes is that which occurs in Russia.

A 6.4-magnitude earthquake strikes southern Siberia, no casualties reported

A 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck Russia’s Altai Republic in southern Siberia on Saturday morning, according to Russian seismologists.

apnews.com

 

[Justo Miranda]

K-T has NOTHING to do with volcanism, the proof of that is the Iridium found in that rock layer (which is only sourced from meteorites).




Eh, let's leave a B83 in contact with it before uncanning the sunshine. 1.2 Megatons should be enough to vaporize the entire rock.

Yes, I'd prefer a larger nuke, but all larger nukes have been destroyed, while there should still be some B83s in "Armageddon storage"

After a great meteoric impact, the whole planet vibrates like a bell for a long time and all the ascending currents of magma are activated.

 

[publiusr]

Odds of impact upgraded to 3.1%

 

[tomo pauk]

Hopefully people will not hold this against me - but why is Scott Kenny banned?

 

[Archibald]

Damn.

 

[FighterJock]

Odds of impact upgraded to 3.1% publiusr? Does that mean that the asteroid will not hit then?

 

[Grey Havoc]

Increased likelihood of it hitting us, albeit a minor increase for the moment.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Hopefully people will not hold this against me - but why is Scott Kenny banned?

Another thread got a bit overheated resulting him in getting a seven-day ban.

 

[tomo pauk]

Another thread got a bit overheated resulting him in getting a seven-day ban.

Okay, thank you.

 

[Archibald]

interesting reading, with a professional opinion.

The odds of a city-killer asteroid impact in 2032 keep rising. Should we be worried?

“Humanity has never tried to stop an asteroid impact for real.”…

arstechnica.com

 

[martinbayer]

Another thread got a bit overheated resulting him in getting a seven-day ban.

It happens to the best of us ...

 

[Archibald]

So far I escaped that sad fate here. But NASAspaceflight ? I'm pretty burned there... oh well.

 

[Hobbes]

Odds of impact upgraded to 3.1% publiusr? Does that mean that the asteroid will not hit then?

It means that as we get more observations of the asteroid, we reduce the uncertainty in our measurements of its orbit.

 

[Josh_TN]

It means that as we get more observations of the asteroid, we reduce the uncertainty in our measurements of its orbit.

I expect the published odds to fluxuate up and down a lot assuming more observations are recorded, assuming that such odds are continuously calculated and published. I assume putting that kind of information out constantly is a good way to stay visible and secure funding. I’d bet ultimately with enough observations the chances go to 0.

 

[robunos]

Asteroid 2024 YR4 less likely to hit Earth than thought
Following new calculations, the risk of a collision with 2024 YR4 has been slashed by half.

Nasa: Asteroid 2024 YR4 less likely to hit Earth than thought

Following new calculations, the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth has been slashed by half

www.thetimes.com

Article behind a paywall, but I managed to get in . . .

'The world could breathe slightly easier on Thursday morning, at least for now, after Nasa announced overnight that a “city killer” asteroid was now much less likely to strike the Earth than previously thought.
The space agency had initially estimated the risk of a collision at 1.2 per cent before upgrading it to 2.3 per cent. There was alarm this week when they upgraded this again to 3.1 per cent — or a one-in-32 chance — which was the highest level ever calculated for the likelihood of a collision.
Scientists have warned that a direct hit, which could occur on December 22, 2032, has the potential to release nearly eight megatons of energy — enough to devastate a city, with the blast radius of about 30 miles.
Just after midnight UK time, however, Nasa posted a further update. They said that the full moon had limited their ability to observe the asteroid, called 2024 YR4, but said that darker skies had now allowed them to spot the asteroid more clearly again.
They subsequently cut the collision risk from 3.1 per cent to 0.28 per cent, with a 0.8 per cent chance of it striking the moon.'

cheers,
Robin.

 

[Justo Miranda]

After so much money lost on stupid missions, each agency is going to have to prove its usefulness to avoid being a victim of budget cuts, so NASA has decided to first alarm us a little, after a theatrical break it offers a respite and tomorrow it will ask for money again for another endless project that lasts at least until after the next elections.

 

[Halcyon66]

Funny, it is all over the place and still 7 years away.

Maybe time for an app or a betting site

Regards,

 

[Scott Kenny]

Hopefully people will not hold this against me - but why is Scott Kenny banned?

I made a very intemperate comment about HMTreasury being a treasonous threat to the UK.

 

[scautomoton]

Would it be in poor taste to have a sweepstake on which city may get hit? Everyone puts £1 in the kitty and winner takes all......

 

[Foo Fighter]

I made a very intemperate comment about HMTreasury being a treasonous threat to the UK.

I think a large part of the UK population is in agreement with that thought.......

 

[Scott Kenny]

I think a large part of the UK population is in agreement with that thought.......

If you changed HMTreasury with whatever your nation's equivalent is, I suspect that most populations on the globe would agree with that.

 

[Archibald]

Can't find a sub-titled video unfortunately but - you get the point. We have our own IRS vampires in France.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy5ewMwLvMc

 

[scautomoton]

Maybe we can try to arrange a Tax-Collectors' conference in whichever city is most likely to be struck?

 

[Justo Miranda]

Maybe we can try to arrange a Tax-Collectors' conference in whichever city is most likely to be struck?

In the time of Emperor Vespasian (a tax collector) the Jews tried and were almost exterminated. The only way to get rid of mosquitoes and tax collectors is to use artificial blood.

 

[Arjen]

Maybe we can try to arrange a Tax-Collectors' conference in whichever city is most likely to be struck?

No tax-collectors: no schools - no roads - no network - no sewers.
Put that peg on your nose, and don't moan.

 

[Justo Miranda]

No tax-collectors: no schools - no roads - no network - no sewers.
Put that peg on your nose, and don't moan.

That's a very unfortunate statement now that it's starting to reveal where most of our taxes were going. The greed of these guys has no limits.

These are things that have always been known but that it was not possible to publish, so as not to complicate life. Believe me, I know what I'm talking about, I was a tax advisor for many years and helped save many small businesses and also some lives.

 

[Arjen]

now that it's starting to reveal where most of our taxes were going

That is the - elected! - politicians' doing, not the tax collectors' doing.

 

[Justo Miranda]

That is the - elected! - politicians' doing, not the tax collectors' doing.
View attachment 760409

Well, because of lack of better arguments, we are already talking about politics.

Politicians who stand for election work for others who do not and cannot be removed by civilized methods: supranational organizations, the United Nations, the European Union, dictatorships... It takes a lot of money to keep that machine running. Taxpayers become impoverished and end up depending on state aid, the eternal dictatorship.