Asteroid Death in 2032 1/67 chance

1) 98% probability nothing happens

2) In case of impact:

70% Earth surface is water

Humans use approximately 14.5 percent of the total surface of the planet

3) In case of impact:

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about 50–60 metres (160–200 feet) wide. Affectation would be similar to Tunguska event. ( a large explosion of between 3 and 50 megatons) The equivalent Torino scale rating for the impactor is 8: a certain collision with local destruction. Flattened 2,150 km2 (830 sq mi) of forest.

4) In case of impact on a populated area:
Capable of destroying a large metropolitan area
Risk corridor according to IAWN: eastern Pacific, northern South America, southern Asia, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa and the Arabian Sea.

Personal conclusion: read again step 1)...keep calm and carry on
 
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Forget about the damn asteroid, if Santorini explodes and the seismic wave reaches the submarine gas pocket between Cyprus and Israel and a few minutes later fractures the caldera of the Campi Flegrei... the guys who traffic in CO2 quotas are going to get rich.

www.livescience.com

Underwater Santorini volcano eruption 520,000 years ago was 15 times bigger than record-breaking Tonga eruption

A 500-foot-thick layer of pumice rock on the Mediterranean seabed indicates Santorini volcano ejected 15 times more material than Hunga-Tonga during a previously unknown eruption.
www.livescience.com www.livescience.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunga_Tonga–Hunga_Haʻapai

https://www.ingv.it/en/press-and-ur...i-the-ingv-clarifies-eruptive-risk-and-danger
 
I live 2300 km away from Santorini, but I'm not sure it would be enough if it blew a tantrum...
 
Archibald said:
I live 2300 km away from Santorini, but I'm not sure it would be enough if it blew a tantrum...
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If the worst happens it would affect the entire atmosphere of the planet, nuclear winter and all that stuff, but the worst thing in my opinion is that some Mary Shelley 2.0 would write the monster novel again.;)
 
I would not worry about the chances of Campi Flegrei exploding when Santorini explodes Justo Miranda, the two are seperate entities altogether. But I am more worried about Campi Flegrei exploding in the next few years as the magma chamber there has been rising and lowering on a regular basis and if it erupts as a Super Volcanoe eruption then the whole of Europe will be affected.
 
Mark Nankivil said:
You know, never thought about it but were there seismic reactions elsewhere after the Tunguska impact? Guess I need to look around for an answer to that.

Indeed there were: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidb...guska-event-and-associated-seismic-phenomena/

Enjoy the Day! Mark
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The seismic wave caused by a direct impact spreads like water waves in a pond and loses strength until it bounces off the banks of the pond, then returns to the center and gains energy again, in the case of Chicxulub the seismic wave surrounded the planet and when it converged in the antipodes of the explosion it lifted India, which was an island located northeast of Madagascar, and displaced it to colliding with Asia, creating Everest and it has not yet stopped. The atmospheric shock wave generated by an asteroid explosion in the atmosphere doesn't affect geology too much, but it can destroy life on a continent. If it were to happen over a populated area, only the flash and the EMP would destroy social order, blinding millions of people and collapsing all services that require electricity. The shock wave would destroy buildings, and the thermal wave associated with the flash would generate fires and burns in people exposed to light, for them it would be the end of the world. There are historical indications of a similar explosion over the Sahara in the time of Ramesses II and of something much smaller that destroyed the social order in post-Roman Britain, there is much archaeological work to be done.
 
FighterJock said:
I would not worry about the chances of Campi Flegrei exploding when Santorini explodes Justo Miranda, the two are seperate entities altogether. But I am more worried about Campi Flegrei exploding in the next few years as the magma chamber there has been rising and lowering on a regular basis and if it erupts as a Super Volcanoe eruption then the whole of Europe will be affected.
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In my opinion, if a strong earthquake of external origin fractures the walls of the caldera and seawater enters... well, at least we would stop paying taxes for some time... or maybe definitively.
 
Huge Vulcanism episodes are associated with at least two episodes of massive life extinction

Siberian traps Perman-Triassic event

Deccan traps KT event (Dinosaurs extinction)

Not to speak about minor episodes with consequences for Homo like Youngest Toba eruption

Should we consider a different tittle for this thread? ;)
 
Seems to me now would be the perfect time to initiate and fast track a robust scaled up operational follow-on effort to the 2022 DART mission. Judging by Musk's 2018 Thailand cave submarine effort as well as the orbital mannequin in a Tesla stunt, saving the world from potential disaster by using SpaceX's capabilities should be right up his alley, rather than engaging in all this DOGE nonsense. Moon Shot 2.0, anyone?
 
Antonio said:
Huge Vulcanism episodes are associated with at least two episodes of massive life extinction

Siberian traps Perman-Triassic event

Deccan traps KT event (Dinosaurs extinction)

Not to speak about minor episodes with consequences for Homo like Youngest Toba eruption

Should we consider a different tittle for this thread? ;)
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I think I should apologize to Forest Green for my volcanic intrusion into its thread, the fact is that I am also very interested in the issue of asteroid and comet impacts and maybe we can share information.:confused:
 
Antonio said:
Huge Vulcanism episodes are associated with at least two episodes of massive life extinction

Siberian traps Perman-Triassic event

Deccan traps KT event (Dinosaurs extinction)

Not to speak about minor episodes with consequences for Homo like Youngest Toba eruption

Should we consider a different tittle for this thread? ;)
Click to expand...
The Deccan Traps are the cooled remains of the lava flow that lifted India from the seafloor transporting it to its current position, you can still see the traces of drag in the underwater atlases. To prove or falsify this theory, it might be interesting to calculate where the impact caused by the Siberian eruption occurred. We can now recreate continental drift with some accuracy, and in theory, a fossil crater should exist at the opposite end of the planet.I remember reading that the eruption of the Toba Volcano reduced humanity to only a few thousand individuals... we narrowly escaped.
 
martinbayer said:
Seems to me now would be the perfect time to initiate and fast track a robust scaled up operational follow-on effort to the 2022 DART mission. Judging by Musk's 2018 Thailand cave submarine effort as well as the orbital mannequin in a Tesla stunt, saving the world from potential disaster by using SpaceX's capabilities should be right up his alley, rather than engaging in all this DOGE nonsense. Moon Shot 2.0, anyone?
Click to expand...
We all agree that humanity must get out of this dirty ball before the sun kills us. The differences are in the way it is done, and all ideas are welcome. In my opinion, any serious attempt at space travel requires resources greater than those of any millionaire and an effort that will exceed the life span of a single individual. Mars is an even dirtier and more dangerous ball than Earth, it's too cold, too hot, and there is too much radiation out there. In my opinion, the diaspora of humanity needs a series of increasingly sophisticated, autonomous and mobile lifeboats in which to develop the necessary technologies to live indefinitely in space until we break the Einsteinian curse. A series of rotating gravity space stations, mobile but anchored in Earth, Lunar, and Lagrangian orbits would be fine to start with. To survive they will need two indispensable things: protection against high-energy cosmic rays and a nuclear-powered electromagnetic engine, the rest is sailing and loss of money and lives.
 
I would rather bet on lunar caves. They are of colossal size (170 km long by 4 km wide !) and their regolith walls are 45% of oxygen by weight. There might be cometary water buried deep down there. Temperatures, radiations, abrasive dust, and meteorit impacts, which makes the lunar surface an inferno, are all gone.
 
Justo Miranda said:
The seismic wave caused by a direct impact spreads like water waves in a pond and loses strength until it bounces off the banks of the pond, then returns to the center and gains energy again, in the case of Chicxulub the seismic wave surrounded the planet and when it converged in the antipodes of the explosion it lifted India, which was an island located northeast of Madagascar, and displaced it to colliding with Asia, creating Everest and it has not yet stopped. The atmospheric shock wave generated by an asteroid explosion in the atmosphere doesn't affect geology too much, but it can destroy life on a continent. If it were to happen over a populated area, only the flash and the EMP would destroy social order, blinding millions of people and collapsing all services that require electricity. The shock wave would destroy buildings, and the thermal wave associated with the flash would generate fires and burns in people exposed to light, for them it would be the end of the world. There are historical indications of a similar explosion over the Sahara in the time of Ramesses II and of something much smaller that destroyed the social order in post-Roman Britain, there is much archaeological work to be done.
Click to expand...

People can also look at the damage from Tunguska, only a matter of time before another comes through.
 
Archibald said:
I would rather bet on lunar caves. They are of colossal size (170 km long by 4 km wide !) and their regolith walls are 45% of oxygen by weight. There might be cometary water buried deep down there. Temperatures, radiations, abrasive dust, and meteorit impacts, which makes the lunar surface an inferno, are all gone.
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That's true and can serve as an emergency shelter for a small group of survivors, but there's the issue of gravity. Despite Asimov's opinion, the second generation of lunar colonists will never be able to inhabit an earth-like planet, assuming they do not develop diseases unknown to the lunar environment. They will be doomed to stay on the Moon or live in low-gravity orbital arcologies. Over time they will become another species. Another unpleasant reality is that a small number of survivors of some cosmic holocaust would be composed almost exclusively of politicians and their families, knowing human nature in the original list of survivors, technicians, scientists and medical personnel would be eliminated in the last days to make room for the parasitic elites, I don't think anyone would survive with that approach. Everyone should be saved, and the DNA of all known species of animals and plants should be carried with them. In future years it will not be necessary to physically move them, codes and crisp technology will suffice.
 
In_A_Dream said:
People can also look at the damage from Tunguska, only a matter of time before another comes through.
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We were very lucky with Tunguska, if it had fallen on Baikonur during the Cuban missile crisis no one would have thought of a meteorite. Can you imagine a trembling astronomer telling Khrushchev that the destruction of Manhattan was a mistake?
Out there is a murderer a hundred kilometers in diameter who has the name of our world written on it, if we fall back into the Middle Ages we are lost.

en.wikipedia.org

A Canticle for Leibowitz - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
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martinbayer said:
Given the DART technology as a point of departure, it'll only come through if we let it.
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The problem is the same as the one we have with cancer: early detection. If the asteroid is dark in color and attacks from the sun, like Me 109s, astronomers won't stand a chance. We need an alarm network with radars much more powerful than those of the Cold War. A ring of them orbiting the sun to cover all the entry routes and connected to each other with central control.

And let's stop the anti-nuclear nonsense and stupidity that blowing it up would cause even more damage: a good bomb in the heart at the greatest possible distance and a fast missile capable of continuously accelerating with nuclear power and an electromagnetic engine, followed by another hundred to make sure... if we want to survive.
 
Justo Miranda said:
... We need an alarm network with radars much more powerful than those of the Cold War. A ring of them orbiting the sun to cover all the entry routes and connected to each other with central control.

... a good bomb in the heart at the greatest possible distance and a fast missile capable of continuously accelerating with nuclear power and an electromagnetic engine, followed by another hundred to make sure... if we want to survive.
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Mars Atmosphere & Space Week
'End of Humanity'
by B. Greenman

"A few seconds after the human species achieved their long awaited victory against our ... ahum ... the killer-asteroid and in the midst of a great wave of human enthusiasm, Earth´s president 'Put Trusk-Un' accidentally ... " (Subscription required)
 
Dreamfighter said:
Mars Atmosphere & Space Week
'End of Humanity'
by B. Greenman

"A few seconds after the human species achieved their long awaited victory against our ... ahum ... the killer-asteroid and in the midst of a great wave of human enthusiasm, Earth´s president 'Put Trusk-Un' accidentally ... " (Subscription required)
Click to expand...
Greenman?
 

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Justo Miranda said:
The problem is the same as the one we have with cancer: early detection. If the asteroid is dark in color and attacks from the sun, like Me 109s, astronomers won't stand a chance. We need an alarm network with radars much more powerful than those of the Cold War. A ring of them orbiting the sun to cover all the entry routes and connected to each other with central control.

And let's stop the anti-nuclear nonsense and stupidity that blowing it up would cause even more damage: a good bomb in the heart at the greatest possible distance and a fast missile capable of continuously accelerating with nuclear power and an electromagnetic engine, followed by another hundred to make sure... if we want to survive.
Click to expand...
Asteroid impact is a persistent imminent threat, just like global nuclear war was(/is?) in the good/bad/old/present days. SOP could ideally be to have a few extraterrestrial object killer HLLVs (paging Musk) in a (near) equatorial launch site on 24/365 alert. But as always, the geopolitical implications might be much harder to address/resolve than the engineering/technical/physical ones.
 
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martinbayer said:
Asteroid impact is a persistent imminent threat, just like global nuclear war was(/is?) in the good/bad/old/present days. SOP could ideally be to have a few extraterrestrial object killer HLLVs (paging fascist idiot savant Musk) in a (near) equatorial launch site on 24/365 alert. But as always, the geopolitical implications might be much harder to address/resolve than the engineering/technical/physical ones.
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Let's face it, no one is going to seriously invest in preventing a cosmic apocalypse until humanity comes to terms with the fact that there are stones in the sky.

It is sad to recognize that the only way to organize a credible defense is a serious warning such as the destruction of a city (preferably a small relatively isolated town in the southern hemisphere) or some other equivalent disaster. As unfair and strange as it may seem to us, that would be fortunate from the point of view of long-term security.
 
Antonio said:
(V) Planetary Defense Station 3

China Space Science and Technology Main Special Engineering Center of the National Defense Science and Technology Industry Administration 2025 Open Recruitment
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Who can guarantee that the Chinese will use this technology only against asteroids?:oops:
 
A less scrupulous leader may see an opportunity to redirect this asteroid towards a certain target on Earth.
 
In_A_Dream said:
That's something I'm surprised hasn't been weaponized yet.
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In fiction:
expanse.fandom.com

Bombardment of Earth (TV)

The Bombardment of Earth was a plan by Belter extremist and leader of the Free Navy, Marco Inaros to bombard Earth with asteroids coated in MCRN (Martian Congressional Republic Navy) stealth materials, making them invisible to UNN (United Nations Navy) warship sensors and asteroid spotters. The...
expanse.fandom.com expanse.fandom.com
 
Antonio said:
In fiction:
expanse.fandom.com

Bombardment of Earth (TV)

The Bombardment of Earth was a plan by Belter extremist and leader of the Free Navy, Marco Inaros to bombard Earth with asteroids coated in MCRN (Martian Congressional Republic Navy) stealth materials, making them invisible to UNN (United Nations Navy) warship sensors and asteroid spotters. The...
expanse.fandom.com expanse.fandom.com
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In fiction:

en.m.wikipedia.org

The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

(Ok, technically a lunar massdriver, not asteroid redirection, but same principle, 50 years earlier)
 
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