Europe keeping the Red Sea open?

[Rule of cool]

The recent USN airstrikes on the Houthis and associated Signal leak debacle illustrates the recent US attitude that they are 'bailing Europe out' as the Red Sea and Suez Canal is far more important to the Europeans than the Americans.

My question is with what could the Europeans use to keep the Red Sea open, and the Houthis supressed?

Presumably the RNs QE and/or PoW could be used, although the British only have 36 of 48 F35Bs delivered and France's CdG is another no brainer. There are other Europeans with aircraft or helicopter carriers, but could the Europeans maintain enough strength on station for a prolonged period?

 

[uk 75]

Provide the Royal Saudi Air Force with Storm Shadows in quantity and more Typhoons.
Use SAS/SBS to kidnap key Houthi leaders to Saudi for trial or as hostages.
Provide Saudi Arabia with whatever it needs to annex Yemen and Netanyahu its population

 

[Apophenia]

I'm curious as to why we're ignoring France's Base aérienne 188 in Djibouti?

The Mirage 2000-5s of EC 3/11 Corse already based at BA 188 could manage the 600 km flight to Sa'dah - Mirage 2000s having a 1,500 km range when carrying external tanks.

The Italians have operated from BA 188/Djibouti–Ambouli in the past and there's no reason that the Brits couldn't. Even without external tanks, AMI or RAF Typhoons could reach Houthi targets from Djibouti.

 

[Rule of cool]

I'm curious as to why we're ignoring France's Base aérienne 188 in Djibouti?

The Mirage 2000-5s of EC 3/11 Corse already based at BA 188 could manage the 600 km flight to Sa'dah - Mirage 2000s having a 1,500 km range when carrying external tanks.

The Italians have operated from BA 188/Djibouti–Ambouli in the past and there's no reason that the Brits couldn't. Even without external tanks, AMI or RAF Typhoons could reach Houthi targets from Djibouti.

I'd forgotten about it, that makes things much easier. No need for multi carrier Task Forces with that nearby.

 

[Martes]

Probably quite the same plan that is being floated by the US now - green light to Saudis & supply weapons and air coverage for the anti-Houthi government for the ground component.

But CdG has just left the area, underlining the althistoric nature of the topic

 

[Dilandu]

Provide the Royal Saudi Air Force with Storm Shadows in quantity and more Typhoons.
Use SAS/SBS to kidnap key Houthi leaders to Saudi for trial or as hostages.
Provide Saudi Arabia with whatever it needs to annex Yemen and Netanyahu its population

"Let's threw all out support behind the worst theocratic dictatorship regime around, what could go wrong with that?"

 

[Dilandu]

There are other Europeans with aircraft or helicopter carriers, but could the Europeans maintain enough strength on station for a prolonged period?

It's not only about ships, but also about missile stockpile depletion. Extrapolating from European cruise missile supplies, and taking into account the SAM attrition rate in Red Sea, several month of intense operations would probably reduce European navies air defense to autocannons only.

 

[Martes]

probably reduce European navies air defense to autocannons only.

Let's be realistic, that would run out very quickly as well.

But it looks like it's not the point of the initial question.

In any case, presence of an airbase in Djibouti does make everything easier, although it may be somewhat vulnerable to missile strikes, but not as critically as ships in the narrow waters of the Red Sea. Plus if indeed Saudis are involved, their airbases can be used as well. Still, the key is in effectively enlisting and employing local militias. Unless you want a land campaign featuring European forces. Which they probably don't.

 

[Ainen]

Provide the Royal Saudi Air Force with Storm Shadows in quantity and more Typhoons.
Use SAS/SBS to kidnap key Houthi leaders to Saudi for trial or as hostages.
Provide Saudi Arabia with whatever it needs to annex Yemen and Netanyahu its population

Saudis already tried to do it in the brutal way. They were effectively forced to come to terms.
It just didn't work, and kingdom accepted the reality.

And with all due respect, getting SAS/SBS dragged around Blackhawk down style won't be received well.

 

[Martes]

They were effectively forced to come to terms.
It just didn't work, and kingdom accepted the reality.

It was a little bit different geopolitical climate back then. It can probably work now (or at least we have a chance to see how it works out now with US).

And with all due respect, getting SAS/SBS dragged around Blackhawk down style won't be received well.

That it won't. Missiles/bombs work just as well for this.

 

[BlackBat242]

A 5-ship rotation of UK's QE & POW, France's CdG, & Italy's Cavour & Trieste could be scheduled to keep F-35B/Rafale air cover on-station continuously.

Then a similar rotation of Albion or Bulwark, Mistral, Tonnere, & Dixmude, Juan Carlos I should provide a helo-based rapid-strike force (with landing craft back-up) as well.

 

[Dilandu]

A 5-ship rotation of UK's QE & POW, France's CdG, & Italy's Cavour & Trieste could be scheduled to keep F-35B/Rafale air cover on-station continuously.

I'm not sure you could rely on more than one RN carrier being combat-ready, considering their mechanical & crewing issues.

 

[BlackBat242]

I'm not sure you could rely on more than one RN carrier being combat-ready, considering their mechanical & crewing issues.

Which is why I said ROTATION, not simultaneous!

But the UK has been keeping them both crewed, and more often then not both out of port at the same time, for a while now.

I'm not aware of a current serious maintenance issue at this time.

 

[Ainen]

It was a little bit different geopolitical climate back then. It can probably work now (or at least we have a chance to see how it works out now with US).

Problem wasn't climate, problem was it was useless. Climate was backlash from being unable to get anything out of cruelty.
It was every bit as heavy handed as is imagined here, and they used probably more bombs than UK even has.

US are indeed trying now, but without land occupation, I don't see much difference.

So, to avoid this being offtop, I think just being more Harkonnen isn't a magic answer.
Answer is comprehensive development of all the capabilities east of Suez. Above all, as @Dilandu mentions, ammo of all kinds.

That it won't. Missiles/bombs work just as well for this.

No one ever plans to fail.

But deploying special forces, as a rather weak country far away, into another de facto country (when you use term houthi, you're talking about North Yemen), and a very militant one at that. It's a recipe for disaster.

 

[Big_Zukini]

The recent USN airstrikes on the Houthis and associated Signal leak debacle illustrates the recent US attitude that they are 'bailing Europe out' as the Red Sea and Suez Canal is far more important to the Europeans than the Americans.

My question is with what could the Europeans use to keep the Red Sea open, and the Houthis supressed?

Presumably the RNs QE and/or PoW could be used, although the British only have 36 of 48 F35Bs delivered and France's CdG is another no brainer. There are other Europeans with aircraft or helicopter carriers, but could the Europeans maintain enough strength on station for a prolonged period?

There are many layers to Europe's general inability to maintain security and meet challenges. One of them is that projecting power is seen more as a vanity item than a pillar of foreign policy.

What do great powers capable of projecting power also usually do when they take security seriously? They use soft power. Lots of different countries around - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Somaliland, even Israel (longest route but still shorter than taking off from Akrotiri). All can be convinced, some more easily than others, to permit basing of aerial and naval power.

There's another creative solution: Ask another country in the region to do it on behalf of Europe, and cover the expenses.

In terms of air power, Europe isn't really lacking. It's ground and naval power where the problems start.
The UK could postpone some project cancellations, increase salaries, and cancel the transfer of Chagos islands. That should free up enough money to buy a couple brand new ships.
Reduce inefficiencies here and there and start refitting existing warships to make them ready for military missions, including employment of firepower and defensive measures.
The Type 45 destroyers are decent. Half a dozen of these on a rotation-based deployment could contribute greatly. Especially if the RN has the ability to do most maintenance in the region.

 

[Rule of cool]

A 5-ship rotation of UK's QE & POW, France's CdG, & Italy's Cavour & Trieste could be scheduled to keep F-35B/Rafale air cover on-station continuously.

My concern which prompted this thread isn't the decks, but the CAGs. Britain has a mere 36 F35s, which isn't enough for a sustained rotation for 2 carriers. similarly Italy has (or is getting) a mere 15 rather than the planned 22, or 30+ with the Air Force.

It's not only about ships, but also about missile stockpile depletion. Extrapolating from European cruise missile supplies, and taking into account the SAM attrition rate in Red Sea, several month of intense operations would probably reduce European navies air defense to autocannons only.

This is the next problem after the lack of carrier aircraft, contributing to a general lack of combat mass.

 

[Big_Zukini]

My concern which prompted this thread isn't the decks, but the CAGs. Britain has a mere 36 F35s, which isn't enough for a sustained rotation for 2 carriers. similarly Italy has (or is getting) a mere 15 rather than the planned 22, or 30+ with the Air Force.

Just deploy Typhoons.

 

[Archibald]

Just deploy Typhoons.

Or Charlton Heston (runs for cover)

 

[BlackBat242]

Or Charlton Heston (runs for cover)

Ummm... the whole idea here is to keep the Red Sea OPEN to ship traffic - not to shut that off completely!

 

[starviking]

No one ever plans to fail.

But deploying special forces, as a rather weak country far away, into another de facto country (when you use term houthi, you're talking about North Yemen), and a very militant one at that. It's a recipe for disaster.

Indeed. That’s why a better idea would be to form an indigenous anti-Houthi alliance, give them all the support they need, and crush the Houthis permanently.

Broad-brushstrokes there, I know. Getting such alliances to play nice with each other, and forgiving the occasional madman intent on just revenge is difficult.

 

[Dilandu]

Indeed. That’s why a better idea would be to form an indigenous anti-Houthi alliance, give them all the support they need, and crush the Houthis permanently.

Problem is, they have the support of local population, by representing its desire for independence from Yemen. So they didn't have much of LOCAL opposition. And outside move against them would be viewed by local population as move against their freedom. So...

 

[zen]

The recent USN airstrikes on the Houthis and associated Signal leak debacle illustrates the recent US attitude that they are 'bailing Europe out' as the Red Sea and Suez Canal is far more important to the Europeans than the Americans.

My question is with what could the Europeans use to keep the Red Sea open, and the Houthis supressed?

Presumably the RNs QE and/or PoW could be used, although the British only have 36 of 48 F35Bs delivered and France's CdG is another no brainer. There are other Europeans with aircraft or helicopter carriers, but could the Europeans maintain enough strength on station for a prolonged period?

So we'd have to examine whether it's worth it first.
Then what is best to achieve it.

In this Europe doesn't want Chinese 'dumping' of products that flow through the canal and beyond a few dependent on Saudi oil. There's not much reason to bother.

Assuming European states did actually think it necessary and were not prepared to leave this issue to the regions powers, Egypt, Saudi, Israel, Sudan, Eritrea and Yemen. Oh and Djibouti.
Then the question is what best stops Houthi attacks on shipping....

The obvious historical answer from other regions was .....Empire.

Only by being there in force, bribing, beating and manipulating the natives, could they be stopped.

Which means European, mostly Christian troops invading and colonising a part of the Arabian peninsula.
Not exactly a popular option.

Back in the day, the British and French didn't bother. Punishment raids and holding Aden/Djibouti was all that mattered.

 

[uk 75]

"Let's threw all out support behind the worst theocratic dictatorship regime around, what could go wrong with that?"

It's been working for over 60 years. Saudi has been our key ally in the Gulf through thick and thin.
In a world run by Xi, Trump, Putin, Mohdi, The Ayatollahs, etc etc I am following Churchill's remarks about Stalin, if Hell was fighting the Nazis I would give the Devil a fair hearing or words to that effect.
The Houthi can hire themselves some Human Rights Lawyers and sue.

 

[edwest4]

OK. Where are the Houthis getting their weapons from? Who is paying for all of it? The U.S. is taking out weapons, storage and radar. And will continue bombing until all anti-ship activity stops.

 

[Dilandu]

OK. Where are the Houthis getting their weapons from?

Some, like drones, are locally produced. Some, like ballistic missiles, are most likely provided by Iran. Iran also seems to provide targeting data from spy ships, deployed in the Red Sea.

 

[edwest4]

Some, like drones, are locally produced. Some, like ballistic missiles, are most likely provided by Iran. Iran also seems to provide targeting data from spy ships, deployed in the Red Sea.

Iran is next on the list.

 

[Justo Miranda]

The maintenance of maritime trade lines and the pursuit of piracy are the privilege of the dominant power in every era. That task is currently the responsibility of the United States of America. It would be naïve to think that something called Europe could act effectively in that area so strategic for the interests of the West... it would be imprudent to anger the inhabitants of the area, even Moses (Charlton Heston) could get angry for undoing his legacy.

 

[Rule of cool]

I think Europeans have a looooong way to go before they start a land war in the Arabian Peninsula to stop the Houthis, not least because their Army recruitment levels are so abysmal.

And then there's this:

The Houthi can hire themselves some Human Rights Lawyers and sue.

This is why I suggested carriers, and now I'm reminded also land based aircraft from Djibouti.

 

[Desertfox]

Or you know, get Israel to end their Gaza war.

 

[sienar]

In this Europe doesn't want Chinese 'dumping' of products that flow through the canal and beyond a few dependent on Saudi oil. There's not much reason to bother.

Chinese ships pass through the straight unmolested since China doesn't support Israel.

 

[Rule of cool]

Or you know, get Israel to end their Gaza war.

Something else the Europeans likely can't do.

 

[Rule of cool]

Chinese ships pass through the straight unmolested since China doesn't support Israel.

I just had a look at one of the global ship tracker websites, ships are marked as Chinese crewed or owned, others have no link to Israel and still others have armed guards onboard. Presumably the Houthis can be discerning about which ships they target.

 

[uk 75]

I think Europeans have a looooong way to go before they start a land war in the Arabian Peninsula to stop the Houthis, not least because their Army recruitment levels are so abysmal.

And then there's this:


This is why I suggested carriers, and now I'm reminded also land based aircraft from Djibouti.

I don't think I suggested that Europe would go to war. Selected Special Forces raids and Saudi air strikes would be no less effective than the current US actions which seem to have had little impact.

 

[Rule of cool]

I don't think I suggested that Europe would go to war. Selected Special Forces raids and Saudi air strikes would be no less effective than the current US actions which seem to have had little impact.

Not you, but there have been some pretty gnarly suggestions in this thread. I'd lump SF raids into the low end of that category.

I imagine that if the Europeans have such a significant stake in the through-trade that they'd at least want to contribute to any Saudi effort, if not lead it and provide the largest commitment. Especially given the whole outsourcing of the security of their trade has left them beholden to the less cooperative US in the first place.

 

[uk 75]

If the US strikes/air defence had been successful I would see it as "outsourcing". But it is also the price the US pays for making Europe stomach Netanyahu.

 

[Rule of cool]

If the US strikes/air defence had been successful I would see it as "outsourcing". But it is also the price the US pays for making Europe stomach Netanyahu.

This is the whole point; Europeans are at the mercy of the foreign policy of the US and Israel. They can't even deal with the blowback of the actions of others because they lack the power to do so.

 

[Big_Zukini]

Or you know, get Israel to end their Gaza war.

How are Israel and Gaza related to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea?

 

[Arjen]

You would have to ask the Houthis.

Yemen’s Houthis ‘will not stop’ Red Sea attacks until Israel ends Gaza war

US launches maritime coalition to counter attacks the rebel group says are a response to Israeli ‘crimes’ in Gaza Strip.

www.aljazeera.com

“Even if America succeeds in mobilising the entire world, our military operations will not stop … no matter the sacrifices it costs us,” Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi official, said in a post on X on Tuesday.
The Houthis would only halt their attacks if Israel’s “crimes in Gaza stop and food, medicines and fuel are allowed to reach its besieged population”, al-Bukhaiti said.
[...]
“A top Houthi official, Mohammed Abdulsalam, who is also a senior negotiator, said the attacks by the Houthis are not an act of defiance but if this new coalition is adamant on launching attacks, then they will have to bear the consequences of what he described as a broader conflict in the region.

“But he said at the same time that the Houthis are still adamant on the need for the Israelis to stop the war if they want the Houthis to stop the attacks,” our correspondent added.

On Tuesday, Abdulsalam told Reuters news agency that the US-led naval patrol mission is “essentially unnecessary” – as all waters near Yemen are still safe, except for Israel-linked ships or vessels travelling to Israel.

 

[Dilandu]

How are Israel and Gaza related to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea?

Houthi claimed that they started those attacks to force Israel to stop military actions in Gaza. Most likely, though, that Iran just called the Houthi massive debts (Iran supported them with funs, weapons and intelligence against Saudi-led coalition in Yemen) and ordered Houthi to attack international shipping in an attempt to salvage the situation in Gaza (which definitedy turned out NOT how Iran wanted)

 

[Ainen]

Some, like drones, are locally produced. Some, like ballistic missiles, are most likely provided by Iran. Iran also seems to provide targeting data from spy ships, deployed in the Red Sea.

They can't be mostly provided by Iran.
It isn't that easy to sneak things into northern Yemen.
Key enabling parts - sure, but bulky weapon system deliveries - nah.

Most likely, though, that Iran just called the Houthi massive debts (Iran supported them with funs, weapons and intelligence against Saudi-led coalition in Yemen) and ordered Houthi to attack international shipping in an attempt to salvage the situation in Gaza (which definitedy turned out NOT how Iran wanted)

Given houthi status in international community - it's a service already done, i.e. its value is not overly high.
I frankly doubt Iran can order Houthis around. Groups in Iraq - maybe. Even hesbollah - only when their interests align enough(which usually do).
Hamas outright fought against Iranian operatives not even all that long ago.

For a religious militant group in one of the worlds' poorest countries, there are more important concerns. Such as legitimacy. Shooting at Israel is legitimacy on a plate. Nothing short of formal recognintion can even touch that, and it's rather questionable if legitimacy from international community matches legitimacy by Arab street in Yemen.
Southern presidents try to sit on foreign bayonets, it doesn't work terribly well.