
防衛費、GDP比1%超えの6兆円台視野 概算要求5.6兆円 - 日本経済新聞
防衛省は31日、2023年度予算の概算要求を決定した。過去最大の5兆5947億円を計上したうえで金額を示さない「事項要求」の防衛力強化策を100項目規模で盛り込んだ。年末に決まる最終的な予算は国内総生産(GDP)比1%を超える6兆円台半ばが視野に入る。22年度当初予算の防衛費は5兆4005億円でGDP比1%弱にあたる。日本の歴代内閣はおおむね1%以内に収めてきた。自民党は5年以内にGDP比2%

Regarding the planned Aegis ship replacements for Japan's abortive Aegis Ashore procurement:
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New Aegis system-equipped ships will likely carry long-range cruise missiles
To increase deterrence against North Korea’s missiles, the government plans to place domestic long-range cruise missiles on two naval vessels equipped with the Aegis system it plans to build, it was learned Tuesday. These missiles are capable of striking land-based targets as the ships will be...japannews.yomiuri.co.jp
The Yomiuri Shimbun
16:48 JST, August 17, 2022
To increase deterrence against North Korea’s missiles, the government plans to place domestic long-range cruise missiles on two naval vessels equipped with the Aegis system it plans to build, it was learned Tuesday.
These missiles are capable of striking land-based targets as the ships will be designed on the expectation that the vessels have “counterattack capability” such as to destroy an enemy’s missile launch site in the name of self-defense.
To keep down construction costs, it has also been settled that the ships will be built using a typical single hull, according to several government sources.
The government decided in December 2020 to build two Aegis system-equipped ships as an alternative to deploying Aegis Ashore, a land-based interceptor system. The government gave up deploying Aegis Ashore due to factors including opposition from the public.
The plan is for the eight existing Aegis-equipped ships of the Maritime Self-Defense Force to operate in such waters as those around the Senkaku Islands of Okinawa Prefecture, while the new Aegis system-equipped ships are expected to be constantly deployed in the Sea of Japan to keep an eye out for ballistic missile launches by North Korea.
The SPY-7 radar for Aegis Ashore will be equipped on the new vessels. The government has already signed a contract to purchase the state-of-the-art radar from a U.S. firm. SM-6 missiles, which can intercept cruise missiles, have also been decided on as equipment for the two ships.
In addition to the advanced radar and missiles, the Aegis system-equipped ships are likely to carry cruise missiles that will be upgraded versions of the Type 12 surface-to-ship missile currently used by the Ground Self-Defense Force. After the upgrades, the missile’s range will extend to about 1,000 kilometers and it will be mounted on naval vessels.
The government will revise three national defense-related documents, including the National Security Strategy, by the end of the year, and has been coordinating its policy so that the Self-Defense Forces will be able to possess counterattack capability.
If the Aegis system-equipped ships are mounted with long-range cruise missiles, it could help the country build up deterrence.
Concerning the hull’s design, however, the government had originally considered constructing the ships with multiple hulls to make them less susceptible to the impact of waves.
Because few actual naval vessels have been developed with multiple hulls and the construction costs of such ships are likely to balloon, the government has decided on a single hull.
The government is expected to announce the newly worked-out plan shortly.
Now that the hull type has been decided, the Defense Ministry hopes to start designing the hull as soon as possible. It plans to include the related outlays for the construction in its budgetary request for fiscal 2023.
It is expected to take more than five years for the new hull to be completed.
I suspect that the decision not to go with a multi-hull design may end up backfiring in the long term.
My best guess is we see an LPD hull form as HII's concept for a BMD LPD lines up well with the specs given by the MoD including the crew count since I have seen some sources say a 110 man crew. I don't know about MHI, but Mitsui has an LPD design which could be modified for increased deck space for VLS mounting.In this configuration, the HII's "future surface combatant" is 209 meters (684ft) in length with a beam of 32 meters (105 ft) and a max. displacement of 27,000 tons. The speed is 20+ knots and expected crew is 161 sailors (a significant drop compared to the 300+ crew complement aboard the Ticonderoga-class).
It's because the translator mistranslates due to the difference in Japanese expressions.Quite interesting. I tried finding more about the idea, from English language online sources - but found nothing so far. The Japanese article above is a bit confusing, sometime stating 2010s and sometimes 2020s for the ship service date. Plus, it'd be nice to know where the assumptions of ship's size came from.
As barrett has already said, it's just the translator misinterpreting. The dates are marked as 27年 and 28年 corresponding to the western years 2027 and 2028, but the translator assumes it means Heisei era dates which of 27年 and 28年 which correspond to 2015 and 2016. The actual specs of the ship come directly from the Japanese MoD in their preliminary budget outline where they just name the projects without allocating specifying funding they want to request.Quite interesting. I tried finding more about the idea, from English language online sources - but found nothing so far. The Japanese article above is a bit confusing, sometime stating 2010s and sometimes 2020s for the ship service date. Plus, it'd be nice to know where the assumptions of ship's size came from.
The problem with that is twofold:
It strikes me that they missed an option. The location of AEGIS ashore would have been well known, so why not move it to an offshore platform like a jack-up rig. Eliminate the fall-back booster risk that made people upset with AEGIS Ashore but save the expense of an actual mobile ship platform.
The problem with that is twofold:
It strikes me that they missed an option. The location of AEGIS ashore would have been well known, so why not move it to an offshore platform like a jack-up rig. Eliminate the fall-back booster risk that made people upset with AEGIS Ashore but save the expense of an actual mobile ship platform.
It’s a fixed installation which needs protecting from NK infiltrators & subs.
It would also likely garner complaints from Japanese fishermen because of “radiation” and suchlike.
One could hope. They really need to come up with a bigger cell though.I'd say US navy jumps on this bandwagon get yourself a true BMD cruiser with space and depth for boost phase interceptors in future.
It seems that the trend for new cruisers are bigger cells (Korean KDX-III patch 2 or Chinese type 055) so I doubt the Japanese not gonna develop their own given these are japan's 2 geopolitical competitors.One could hope. They really need to come up with a bigger cell though.I'd say US navy jumps on this bandwagon get yourself a true BMD cruiser with space and depth for boost phase interceptors in future.
I thought we were talking about the US navy..It seems that the trend for new cruisers are bigger cells (Korean KDX-III patch 2 or Chinese type 055) so I doubt the Japanese not gonna develop their own given these are japan's 2 geopolitical competitors.One could hope. They really need to come up with a bigger cell though.I'd say US navy jumps on this bandwagon get yourself a true BMD cruiser with space and depth for boost phase interceptors in future.
I meant US navy can piggyback on a joint venture. Regardless it's technologically it's not a big risk to build a larger cell so they could go solo too.I thought we were talking about the US navy..
That's going to be a one-off, virtually useless for most applications.The USN is developing a (much) larger cell? I mean, what do you guys think they're going to install on the Zumwalts instead of the cannons?
That's going to be a one-off, virtually useless for most applications.The USN is developing a (much) larger cell? I mean, what do you guys think they're going to install on the Zumwalts instead of the cannons?
The cell for the long-range missile going on the Zumwalts won't be used for anything else. They're not going to stuff 4 SM-6s in each one as an alternate loadout for example. Also, future missiles are already being constrained by the Mk41 cell which would indicate they're not looking at anything that would require the Mk57.That's going to be a one-off, virtually useless for most applications.The USN is developing a (much) larger cell? I mean, what do you guys think they're going to install on the Zumwalts instead of the cannons?
We don't know that. The DDG(X) concept showed a payload module space that could accommodate something like those cells got Zumwalt. And we don't know that the primary VLS will be the current Mk 41 cell size. Could be Mk 57 cells, especially if they go with a Zumwalt style hullform.
The cell for the long-range missile going on the Zumwalts won't be used for anything else. They're not going to stuff 4 SM-6s in each one as an alternate loadout for example. Also, future missiles are already being constrained by the Mk41 cell which would indicate they're not looking at anything that would require the Mk57.That's going to be a one-off, virtually useless for most applications.The USN is developing a (much) larger cell? I mean, what do you guys think they're going to install on the Zumwalts instead of the cannons?
We don't know that. The DDG(X) concept showed a payload module space that could accommodate something like those cells got Zumwalt. And we don't know that the primary VLS will be the current Mk 41 cell size. Could be Mk 57 cells, especially if they go with a Zumwalt style hullform.
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They already did. They built these bigger hypersonic missiles and there's no VLS for them in existence.The cell for the long-range missile going on the Zumwalts won't be used for anything else. They're not going to stuff 4 SM-6s in each one as an alternate loadout for example. Also, future missiles are already being constrained by the Mk41 cell which would indicate they're not looking at anything that would require the Mk57.That's going to be a one-off, virtually useless for most applications.The USN is developing a (much) larger cell? I mean, what do you guys think they're going to install on the Zumwalts instead of the cannons?
We don't know that. The DDG(X) concept showed a payload module space that could accommodate something like those cells got Zumwalt. And we don't know that the primary VLS will be the current Mk 41 cell size. Could be Mk 57 cells, especially if they go with a Zumwalt style hullform.
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It would be pretty foolish to commit to designing a >21-inch missile before the Navy has significant numbers of >21-inch launchers.
They already did. They built these bigger hypersonic missiles and there's no VLS for them in existence.
So far there is zero evidence they're even to the powerpoint stage of a Mk41 replacement. And the Mk57 (which still isn't big enough) appears to be dead as well.They already did. They built these bigger hypersonic missiles and there's no VLS for them in existence.
They decided to adopt an Army missile for a niche application and figure out how to deploy it. Not quite the same thing as a missile for fleet adoption. There needs to be an installed base of larger cells before they adopt a new larger missile as a fleet-wide standard.
In more sane times I'd suspect you would be correct there. Under the current administration & DOD/Armed Services leadership though...I'd say US navy jumps on this bandwagon get yourself a true BMD cruiser with space and depth for boost phase interceptors in future.
So far there is zero evidence they're even to the powerpoint stage of a Mk41 replacement. And the Mk57 (which still isn't big enough) appears to be dead as well.
I hope NG keeps pushing their Modular Launch System. That looks like it's got a lot of potential though it doesn't look to be the most efficient use of space.So far there is zero evidence they're even to the powerpoint stage of a Mk41 replacement. And the Mk57 (which still isn't big enough) appears to be dead as well.
There's evidence that industry (specifically NG) continues to work on Mk 41 successor designs. They wouldn't be doing that if they thought there was no possibility of adoption. I think I heard that LM was also looking at alternatives, but I can't find a reference now.
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Navy Modernizing Vertical Launch Systems to Fire Next-Gen Hypersonic Weapons - Warrior Maven: Center for Military Modernization
Northrop Grumman’s EJECT launch technology is designed to supplement VLS and support hypersonic missiles and other emerging larger ship-fired missiles and weaponswarriormaven.com
According to local newspaper reports, initial details of the ASEV point towards a massive ship: 210 meters long and 40 meters wide, with a standard displacement of 20,000 tons and a crew of about 110 people. Crew comfort onboard will be a priority as all crew members will be provided with private cabins. In terms of length and displacement, it is equivalent to the Izumo class DDH (248 meters long, standard displacement 19,500 tons), the largest vessel in the JMSDF, but it is more like a civilian vessel than a warship in that all crew members are given private cabins and the crew complement is quite low for a vessel of this size.
Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada explained explained during a press conference held on September 2 the reasons for such a large vessel, as well as the rationale behind high crew comfort standards:
“The reason is to ensure seaworthiness, to be able to operate in rough weather, to improve the crew’s living environment for long-term offshore missions, and to be expandable to deal with hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) in the future.”
However, in addition to the reasons given by the Defense Minister, some believe that the hull was enlarged to solve the problem of the size and weight of the SPY-7, a radar manufactured by Lockheed Martin that will be installed on the ASEV. The Defense Minister also commented that the ASEVs are expected to be commissioned around March 2028 for the first vessel and March 2029 for the second vessel.
The primary role assigned to the ASEV is to free the JMSDF’s Aegis destroyers from their North Korea watch duties and to enable them to respond to China’s maritime expansion. Therefore, the ASEV does not inherently require air defense or anti-submarine warfare capabilities, its sole main focus being BMD. This is because North Korea does not currently possess such weapons to attack the ASEV.
However, according to press reports, the ASEV will be equipped with SM-6 missiles to deal with cruise missiles and anti-ship missiles, as well as an improved version of the Type 12 ship-to-ship missile that can attack surface targets as well as naval vessels and has a range of approximately 1,000 km. Therefore, the ASEV could become an asset that could respond not only to North Korean ballistic missiles, but also to attacks by Chinese ballistic missiles, HGVs, and cruise missiles. The question then would be how would the ASEV respond to the threat of Chinese submarines and anti-ship missiles. Above all, in this case, the ASEVs should probably be planned as a completely new type of warship, since it cannot be positioned as a mere alternative to the Aegis Ashore.
Therefore, the ASEV does not inherently require air defense or anti-submarine warfare capabilities, its sole main focus being BMD. This is because North Korea does not currently possess such weapons to attack the ASEV.
Fitted for, but not with?I think this particular statement from the article is rather a hostage to fortune at best:
Therefore, the ASEV does not inherently require air defense or anti-submarine warfare capabilities, its sole main focus being BMD. This is because North Korea does not currently possess such weapons to attack the ASEV.
I did wonder if that was the case when I read the first reports about this new class. However the tacking on of things like the counterattack role does to my mind suggest that, what ever the original intent was, the design may be evolving towards using naval standards overall in its design & construction, given that hybrid designs (combining naval and commercial specifications) seem to have been going out of fashion in recent times and using commercial spec for the hull would very likely end up not meeting requirements, since it probably will need a heavily bespoke design to fulfill (and that is assuming they don't ultimately decide to go for nuclear propulsion to enhance time on station and such). So it is possible that it will emerge as something more along the lines of an actual battlecruiser, or at least as a proper warship design.Conceptually more like the USN's proposed SABMIS missile defense ship than a super CG.
Given how overstretched the JMSDF is presently, I have to say that I'm doubtful.Perhaps Japan has enough subs and frigates available for the Sea of Japan to mitigate any threats?
assuming they don't ultimately decide to go for nuclear propulsion to enhance time on station and such