CSBA "Third Offset" paper

USAF Reveals New Details on AFwerX Innovation Initiative

USAF is calling its newest modernization initiative the “most ambitious knowledge outreach program to date.” In a release about AFwerX, an innovation push Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said would help “strip out bureaucracy” when she announced it in July, the service explained in more detail how it would work. The first AFwerX location will open by “early 2018” next to the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. From there, USAF will be issuing challenges to the general public, called “sprints,” which will be based on problems that need fixing within the service, with specific eyes toward innovation. Staff at the AFwerX location will help the public “break down” the red tape necessary to bring ideas to the table, facilitate them through the proper acquisition and testing steps, and then connect those ideas to Air Force leadership, even offering “small monetary awards and initial prototype investments” to worthy innovations. The idea is to fund a lot of small ideas in the hope that some will develop into effective, inexpensive solutions. —Gideon Grudo

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/08/24/defense_technologists_divided_over_killer_robots_112133.html

bobbymike said:

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/08/24/defense_technologists_divided_over_killer_robots_112133.html

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All the panty-wringing is really getting old. Machines, in the form of guided weapons, have been "deciding" what lives and what dies for over half a century and nobody lost any sleep over it. Furthermore AI is something that IS going to happen. Best to stop wasting time worrying if we should or shouldn't and spend time figuring out how we're going to live WITH it.

https://www.army.mil/article/192782/gamers_shape_future_force_army_seeks_soldiers_input_through_online_gaming

https://warontherocks.com/2015/11/man-the-machine-and-war/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUtQbriWt64

Brain Science from Bench to Battlefield: The Realities – and Risks – of Neuroweapons

AFRL awards up to $499 million to mature 'revolutionary' technology

The Air Force Research Laboratory is hoping that a new, five-year contract with a $499 million ceiling will help the service mature and field "affordable, revolutionary capabilities" to a range of legacy and future platforms, including a next-generation fighter or tanker.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/2017/09/21/cross-domain_fires_army039s_atacms_as_anti-ship_missiles_296969.html

https://overthehorizonmdos.com/2017/09/20/autonomy-the-future-of-aerial-combat/

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/silicon-valley-style-software-approach-comes-to-f-35-440902/

They seem to have severe amnesia about the fact that they have repeatedly tried this before throughout the DOD/Services, with less than flattering results.

bobbymike said:

https://overthehorizonmdos.com/2017/09/20/autonomy-the-future-of-aerial-combat/

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Part II

https://overthehorizonmdos.com/2017/09/25/airmens-definition-of-autonomy/

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2017/10/06/new-video-game-gives-junior-soldiers-access-to-experimental-vehicles-guns/

http://www.heritage.org/military-strength/the-air-domain-and-the-challenges-modern-air-warfare?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=thf-fb

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/ausa/2017/10/10/pencils-down-what-are-the-top-six-areas-mccarthy-wants-tech-to-zero-in-on/

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/ausa/2017/10/11/modernization-reborn-army-pushes-for-total-overmatch/

http://www.heritage.org/military-strength/overview-land-warfare?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=thf-fb

https://www.defensenews.com//air/2017/10/12/air-force-wants-to-apply-success-of-rapid-capabilities-office-to-other-weapons-programs/

With commercial satellite imagery, computer learns to quickly find missile sites in China

WASHINGTON — For all the hype and promise around artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies in military applications, it always comes down to what specifically can be done with it.

The industry keeps rolling out new gee-whiz artificial intelligence tools but the defense and intelligence communities still are trying to figure out how to use them and whether they really work as promised.

According to a new study, there is one area where deep machine learning algorithms can definitely help the government, and that is to analyze satellite imagery.

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http://spacenews.com/with-commercial-satellite-imagery-computer-learns-to-quickly-find-missile-sites-in-china/

Flyaway said:

With commercial satellite imagery, computer learns to quickly find missile sites in China

WASHINGTON — For all the hype and promise around artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies in military applications, it always comes down to what specifically can be done with it.

The industry keeps rolling out new gee-whiz artificial intelligence tools but the defense and intelligence communities still are trying to figure out how to use them and whether they really work as promised.

According to a new study, there is one area where deep machine learning algorithms can definitely help the government, and that is to analyze satellite imagery.

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http://spacenews.com/with-commercial-satellite-imagery-computer-learns-to-quickly-find-missile-sites-in-china/

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"Paging SOC. . ."

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/10/18/the_us_thinks_about_space_warfare_112491.html

https://breakingdefense.com/2017/10/clash-of-strategies-capability-or-capacity-today-or-tomorrow/

http://csbaonline.org/research/publications/fy-2018-weapon-systems-factbook

https://breakingdefense.com/2017/11/almost-breathtaking-changes-as-army-races-to-build-final-2019-budget/

Sometime in the next few years – possibly as early as the 2019 budget request now in the works – the Army must make a “seminal” decision on its tanks, McCarthy said: “Do you continue making (upgrades) on the existing platform or do you for the next-generation capability?”

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https://overthehorizonmdos.com/2017/11/13/strategic-rationale-for-deep-space-operations/

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/itsec/2017/11/27/operation-overmatch-us-army-launches-prototyping-in-virtual-reality/

Don't know if this article fits here but I've been posting CONOPS articles that aren't exclusive to "The Third Offset" as a catchall for next generation strategy in general under this thread. Keeping that in mind I thought some members would find this interesting.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/445708/f-35-replacement-f-45-mustang-ii-fighter-simple-lightweight

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/reagan-defense-forum/2017/12/03/the-next-sputnik-us-stands-to-lose-technological-edge-to-china/

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/reagan-defense-forum/2017/12/03/pentagon-working-on-new-modernization-strategy-for-technology-investments/

https://www.fifthdomain.com/it-networks/2017/12/07/between-readiness-and-innovation-who-wins/

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1782.html

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2017/12/31/new-in-2018-army-pushes-forward-on-multidomain-battle-new-way-to-fight/

http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/2018/February%202018/Develop-Borrow-Steal-The-Race-for-Tech.aspx

Mods should add and Multi-Domain to the title of this thread as this appears to be the new buzz phrase.

https://breakingdefense.com/2018/01/2018-forecast-air-force-space-force-or-multi-domain-force/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=59801645&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9Yaqp11L7vDWBTdY-uJAsjHd4wGgpMRCXwj9iFFY8j1q8qxM6AOrNBYCQxSw4vEMfoqY1ATX5hmuiCJPgyEM8mZ3mRWg&_hsmi=59801645

https://overthehorizonmdos.com/2018/01/05/oth-anniversary-over-the-horizon-the-multi-domain-operational-strategist-mdos/

https://overthehorizonmdos.com/2018/01/17/oth-anniversary-fifth-generation-warfare-and-other-myths-clarifying-muddled-thinking-in-our-current-defense-debates/

Wilson Touts Five-Year “Speed Wins” Plan

1/17/2018

—John A. Tirpak​

​The Air Force wants to be able to field new weapons systems in five years, saying it can't afford another 20-year acquisition program like the F-35. Air Force photo by Capt. Christopher Mesnard.

​Keenly aware that its procurement process takes too long to keep up with potential adversaries, the Air Force is looking to drastically shorten timelines for fielding new weapons, from 20 years to under five, and is looking to use the Rapid Capabilities Office as a template for its whole acquisition system.

Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Seve Wilson, in an interview with Air Force Magazine, said USAF has embraced the fact that “speed wins” in acquisition, and the service can no longer “take 10 Moore’s Laws” of time to deploy new capabilities. Moore’s Law is the technology maxim predicting that computing systems double in power and halve in price about every two years. USAF can “never” take 20 years on a project like the F-35 again, he said. “We have to speed up this whole process, from the requirements, to the acquisition, to testing, to delivery” of new gear to combat units, Wilson asserted.
​
Toward that end, he said USAF will model its overall acquisition system on the Rapid Capabilities Office, which is developing the B-21 bomber. It relies on a small, empowered team with full authority over the project, and “only one or two layers” of oversight, Wilson said. Asked if he sees the whole Air Force Materiel Command structure being refashioned into an “RCO on steroids,” Wilson answered, “I envision a lot of our acquisition moving in that direction.”

Although the RCO is in charge of developing the B-21 bomber, Wilson did not name the B-21 as the “pathfinder” program for the new system of acquisition. “I can’t give you the answer of where we can show we can do that,” he said. “We’re looking to answer that” in the near future, but he said “we'll have lots of those programs in the future.”

Air Force officials in recent years have touted the success of advanced capability technology demonstrations (ACTDs) like JSTARS or the Predator drone, which have gone from experiments to fielded systems on an expedited basis. However, these systems have typicall​y suffered badly in terms of sustainment, because the logistics capability is usually created as an afterthought in such cases, with predictable parts and manpower shortages.

If 20 years is too long, what is USAF’s grand challenge goal for going from setting a requirement to deploying a new system? “In the late ‘50s and early ‘60s, we were doing ACAT [Acquisition Category] 1, big programs, in three years,” Wilson noted. “Whether we can do that, I don’t know … but I certainly think a five-year time horizon is something we ought to be able to shoot for.”

Programs aimed at upgrading the capability of existing systems—“spiral development”—will have to meet stringent tests before they can go forward, Wilson added. They’ll have to be proven to offer more capability, efficiency, or lethality, “at or equal in cost in a shorter developmental time frame,” or they won’t make the cut in the budget. These streamlined, go-fast plans are a good start, Wilson said, but depend entirely on getting “a predictable, adequate budget” that allow the Air Force to thoughtfully manage the resources it has.

https://breakingdefense.com/2018/01/csa-miiley-bets-on-radical-tech-promises-no-more-fcs/

Based on this article, the US Army is in for another wasted decade of developmental stagnation. At some point, the entire futuristic thinking staff from all the US services should be summarily dismissed.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1419045/dod-official-national-defense-strategy-will-rebuild-dominance-enhance-deterrence/

https://overthehorizonmdos.com/2018/01/19/drop-zone-the-third-offset-and-implications-for-the-future-operating-environment/

DrRansom said:

https://breakingdefense.com/2018/01/csa-miiley-bets-on-radical-tech-promises-no-more-fcs/

Based on this article, the US Army is in for another wasted decade of developmental stagnation. At some point, the entire futuristic thinking staff from all the US services should be summarily dismissed.

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I Agree DrRansom
I often wondering what fairies and boogiemen the Pentagon are perceiving and chasing :-\
One need only look at the U.S. Army's decades of wasted time & $$$$ spent on the 'on again/off again' 'Air Deployable Light Tank' programs , to name but one!



Regards
Pioneer

http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-88/jfq-88_4-13_Hoffman.pdf?ver=2018-01-09-102342-503

Not sure where to put this but it covers multiple topics which could apply here.

F-35, hypersonics, and compact fusion from Lockheed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsgUjWAxmpo