Wi: Jsf cancelled?

[griml0ck122]

So, its 2011 and the JSF is in trouble. Costs rising, tech difficulties, we all know the story. In the face of the economy and wars in the middle east and (instert your excuse here) the US says bugger it, and cancels the f-35. So, what next? How does the US and rest of the world proceed? The US can probably crank f-16s and superhornets, and they Europeans with advanced 4th gen, but would this lead to a proliferation of 4th gen designs earlier across the world? In addition, would there be a greater emphasis in ew aircraft and stand-off jamming?
Keen to hear everyones thoughts

 

[donnage99]

navy would pay for a long range stealthy drone aka x-47

 

[FighterJock]

What about the UK if the JSF was cancled? Bring back FOAS or develope a successor aircraft for the Royal Navy and RAF? Either way it would have been a stupid thing to do especially with all the jobs that was involved in the program.

 

[sferrin]

What about the UK if the JSF was cancled? Bring back FOAS or develope a successor aircraft for the Royal Navy and RAF? Either way it would have been a stupid thing to do especially with all the jobs that was involved in the program.

Not without precedent. Seawolf, Zumwalt, F-22, B-2, Peacekeeper. . .

 

[apparition13]

More F-22s, since it's the only game in town again.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Unfortunately stored tooling and materials which were intended to allow for the resumption of F-22 production in an emergency was instead used (illegally) to prop up the F-35 program. So it's highly unlikely that the US would be able to resume production, unfortunately.

 

[Archibald]

Not possible to cancel, too many "partners" politically hand-tied since (for example) 2002, as in: The Netherlands.
More generally: the proverbial "too big to fail". Too many aircraft to replace (3000 for USA alone), too many hundred billions and trillions dollars committed to F-35 (not JSF since 2001 and Lockheed victory).

Now, killing the F-35 in the craddle in 1994 is another story - and a rather interesting one...

 

[apparition13]

Unfortunately stored tooling and materials which were intended to allow for the resumption of F-22 production in an emergency was instead used (illegally) to prop up the F-35 program. So it's highly unlikely that the US would be able to resume production, unfortunately.

In this scenario the JSF is cancelled in 2011. F-22 is still in production in 2011 and 2012. The tooling and materials are still on the F-22 line, and the line is producing aircraft. I suspect more would be funded just to keep the line and options open.

Best case, team with NG on an FB-22 and with Boeing on an AFX for the navy in order to get everyone involved in production. The marines and anyone with STOVL carriers are screwed, unless JSF continues with only the B model.

 

[FighterJock]

Unless the F-35B model gets canned too, the marines go back to the ASTOVL that they were working on pre JSF and are joined by the Royal Navy and RAF who got rid of their Harriers.

 

[uk 75]

F35 is a F16/F18 replacement F22 was an attempt to replace F15

Some kind of JSF is going to get built for the USAF and USN. At worst new batch F16 and F18 will be developed. More likely is a get well fix for F35.

Main problem for the F35 is the F35B requirement. Ditch that in the beginning and you get a better cheaper JSF.

Killing F35B is also helpful to the US Marines and UK. McDD and BAE keep Harriers in production and develop new version as cheaper alternative.
RAF and RN begin to look at Typhoon then Tempest for Joint Force carrier ops.
QE and POW will get mid life rebuilds to use cats from Ford CVN.
US Marines join F35C programme to replace F18s

 

[Desertfox]

F-16XL with F-35 avionics gets resurrected? NGAD/FA-XX gets started earlier? More F-15EXs earlier?

 

[CV12Hornet]

More F-22s is an obvious option, but as noted the need is for an F-16/F/A-18 replacement. The F-22s can buy time by getting the ancient F-15C/Ds out of the lineup, thereby reducing some of the time pressure, but a new light fighter is still needed.

The closest precedent in the US MIC is the Missileer->Seavark->Tomcat line of development, which essentially saw the same avionics, weapons, and engines progressively repackaged in new airframes. This would suggest a "I can't believe it's not the F-35!" airframe built to package the existing development work into a CTOL plane not compromised by having to share features with a STOVL plane.

The USN, for their part, may very well pull out entirely, fund the Advanced Super Hornet, and go all-in on what's now become NavGAD.

God knows what happens for the F-35B customers. They're all kinda screwed.

RAF and RN begin to look at Typhoon then Tempest for Joint Force carrier ops.
QE and POW will get mid life rebuilds to use cats from Ford CVN.

With what money?

 

[BlackBat242]

Killing F35B is also helpful to the US Marines and UK. McDD and BAE keep Harriers in production and develop new version as cheaper alternative.

Ummm... the last new-build AV-8B left the line in 1997, and the last "remanufactured" AV-8B+ left the line in December 2003.

So the facilities to build them were either mothballed or scrapped starting in 2004.

The only realistic time I can see the F-35 being cancelled is back in that time period (before ~2008)- before too much money and commitment was input to the program.

My personal preference would be for ASTOVL/CALF to NOT be merged with the USN's needs in 1995, so that only the USAF & USMC (and European) programs would be involved. This would allow the canard-delta configuration preferred for ASTOVL/CALF to remain (the USN's requirements for controllability for arrested shipboard landings drove the switch to the conventional layout).

The USN could make do with the proposed "enhanced-stealth" version of the Super Hornet until a larger Naval stealth multirole fighter could be designed (basically an earlier F/A-XX).

 

[BlackBat242]

The USN, for their part, may very well pull out entirely, fund the Advanced Super Hornet, and go all-in on what's now become NavGAD.

God knows what happens for the F-35B customers. They're all kinda screwed.


With what money?

The USN's F/A-XX program, while sharing technology and likely engine/avionics with the USAF's NGAD, is a separate program from the latter.

 

[Desertfox]

More F-22s is an obvious option, but as noted the need is for an F-16/F/A-18 replacement. The F-22s can buy time by getting the ancient F-15C/Ds out of the lineup, thereby reducing some of the time pressure, but a new light fighter is still needed.

The closest precedent in the US MIC is the Missileer->Seavark->Tomcat line of development, which essentially saw the same avionics, weapons, and engines progressively repackaged in new airframes. This would suggest a "I can't believe it's not the F-35!" airframe built to package the existing development work into a CTOL plane not compromised by having to share features with a STOVL plane.

The USN, for their part, may very well pull out entirely, fund the Advanced Super Hornet, and go all-in on what's now become NavGAD.

God knows what happens for the F-35B customers. They're all kinda screwed.


With what money?

Except you can't build F-22s because no tooling. Best you can do is the Stealth Eagles, thought I would prefer the delta wing F-16 variants with F-35 avionics and F119s.

 

[apparition13]

Except you can't build F-22s because no tooling. Best you can do is the Stealth Eagles, thought I would prefer the delta wing F-16 variants with F-35 avionics and F119s.

Again, the cancellation in this scenario happens in 2011 when the F-22 is still in production.

 

[Archibald]

SecDef Gates canned F-22 prod in spring 2009 (from memory).

 

[CV12Hornet]

He cut further production beyond the 187 production models we actually got. The last of those 187 planes was indeed delivered in 2011.

 

[uk 75]

This thread seems to have two strands.

Main aim seems to bring back F22 (shades of Supertiger in other alt threads). Dont see it happening.

The other is what to do about F35B. Frankly I would let it die and sell QE/POW to India, Brazil or convert them to house asylum seekers. Buy more Typhoons and get Tempest sooner. VSTOL like Concorde belongs in the history books.

I am sure the US Marines will find a way to keep their Harriers flying.

 

[Desertfox]

You could just convert the carriers to CTOL and get Rafale or Super Hornets for them.

 

[Siberia]

F-35 is a F-16 F/A-18 replacement, F-22 was an attempt to replace F-15. Some kind of JSF is going to get built for the USAF and USN. At worst new batch F-16 and F/A-18 will be developed.

Considering how expensive the F-22 is I could see someone trying to argue that the USAF should buy more F-15s since it's now the low model in the high-low mix.

 

[kpuscas]

F-16XL with F-35 avionics gets resurrected? NGAD/FA-XX gets started earlier? More F-15EXs earlier?

Love that idea. F-16XL or maybe some version of the Falcon 2000 proposal. It's kinda like what HushKit proposed with the F-36 Kingsnake idea.