Makes ton of sense.
- The 2000/4000 decision was taken at a Giscard / Dassault meeting on December 18, 1975.
- The 4000 flew in March 1979, at the time Iraq, not the Saudis, were the driving force. Of course the war 18 months later prevented Saddam from buying any other Mirages than the F1EQ series (which proved extremely efficient during the war, even dowing a couple of Tomcats through very clever ambushes)
-Peace Sun 1 was sealed in 1981, Israel already had its F-15s since they butchered the Syrian air force only a year later at the Bekaa "turkey shot". Israel forbade any more than 60 F-15s in Saudi hands at any time, for the next decade.
- Al Yamahmah giga-contract including the ADV happened in September 1985
-Dassault renewed push for the Saudis happened between 1986 and 1988.
Frack yes, unfortunately. Just like freakkin' F-20 Tigershark, actually. Or the Lavi.
Dassault tried in chance with the Saudis against such odds
a) because they had truckloads of oil money, so you never know
b) because the Saudis shit their pants being trapped between Iran and Iraq and being the next target after the ongoing butchering (instead it was Kuwait, but Saddam was crazy, and the Mullahs were nuts, so you never know)
c) because of the peculiar F-15 situation - if the British had managed to sell a handful of ADV, he could try the 4000.
Don't forget the Saudi immediate next neighbourghs were quite bonkers
- Iran was sending human waves clearing minefields, giving volunteers a plastic key supposedly leading to Allah paradise - in exchange for their sacrifices (no kidding: watch Marjane Satrapi Persépolis )
- Saddam was gassing both Iranians and Kurds with mustard gas, the SOB
So yes, the Saudis were a little worried.
But you are right, the AdA wouldn't buy the 4000 - not in 1976 nor 1979 nor 1986 nor 1988. That train left the station definitively with Giscard decision in December 1975.
And it got worse from 1978 onwards when pre-Rafale history started, resulting in the ACX presented to the press in 1983.
Proof: the ASMP. It was first sketched for the ACF in 1972-75, then frozen when the ACF died.
It was brought back from 1977 but, instead of bringing back the 4000 as a two-seat nuclear bomber, it was decided instead
- short term: 18*Mirage IV-A turned IV-P ASMP carriers
- long term: Mirage 2000N
It is a pity, because there was a very small opportunity to bring back the 4000 there as a Mirage IV successor.
But it wasn't done, because only 62 Mirage IVA were ever build, of which only 18 (19 after one crashed) were turned into ASMP carriers.
Developping the 4000 for only 18 to 62 aircraft and very uncertain export orders... that was too much, too risky for post 1973 oil-shock France. Despite Giscard and PM Raymond Barre best efforts, unemployement went from 400 000 in 1974 to a whopping 2 million by 1981, a 500% increase. And it hasn't come down since then, damn it. Stuck at 2.5 million (best case).
Then Miterrand and his cronies messed up the economy even further by going the exact opposite way of Maggie Thatcher on the other side of the Channel - re-nationalizing as much as she privatized (which says something !)
Whatever, there was no room for the 4000 in that context. Even the Su-27 and MiG-31 couldn't bring it back.
