Had Italy been communist, the entire fabric of the Mediterranean would have been changed forever. The history of all nations would be completely, however, none more so than Malta.
The period between 1945 and 1964 was full of turmoil after the Second World War. Malta was rebuilding, after having sustained three years of incessant bombing, the island was in ruins. As Malta rebuilt, the 1947 Constitution was put into place, as many islanders began leaving for foreign lands like Australia, Canada, the United States and Britain. The Assembly that had been suspended in the years before the War was re-established, thus allowing the local political parties to start up once again.
In 1955, then Prime Minister Dom Mintoff, who was pro-British at the time, advocated for the unification of Malta with the United Kingdom. He knew that Malta was essential to the British, and that Malta's economic situation could be improved by joining the UK and bringing the government and standards of living up to British standards. A referendum was held, and 77% of those who voted were in favour of the annexation of Malta into the UK. However, the Opposition, let by George Borg Olivier boycotted the vote, and since the turnout was only 60%, they stated that the election did not represent what the people truly wanted, and thus, stated that the vote was invalid. Apart from this, there were some disagreements between Mintoff and the British Government, mainly in regards to spending allowances. The situation between 1955 and 1957 changed rapidly. The Suez Crisis began the reduction of British forces and bases. Malta was beginning to look like it was unnecessary; if there were no bases East of Suez, there was no need for a stopover in the centre of the Mediterranean. The 1957 Defence White Paper led to the reduction of ships in the Royal Navy, which was catastrophic for Malta, as Malta's primary source of economic income was from its use as a Naval Base. Malta under British rule was a fortress economy, which meant that in times of conflict or tension, the economy would boom, which would be followed by a massive bust immediately after.
The factors all lead to Mintoff's resignation in 1958, and the post as Prime Minister was abolished until 1962, when George Borg Olivier of the Nationalist Party won the election, and began the calls for independence, which was achieved on the 21st of September, 1964. A panic amongst British forces occurred in 1973, when the lease on the bases expired, and many troops began pulling out. A flyby was held at RAF Luqa, as well as parades at various other locations. However, the lease was extended, and these troops were soon ordered back to Malta. British forces remained on the island until the 31st of March, 1979, by which point Mintoff had been re-elected and serving as Prime Minister for eight years. Somewhat ironic is the fact that Mintoff was by now anti-British, even though he had wanted integration with them not long before, and had been blackmailing them into staying for his entire time as Prime Minister; he knew most of his voting base would be left jobless with the departure of the British (most of his staunch supporters were at the Dockyard and in the Three Cities, who were almost completely reliant on the presence of the Royal Navy.)
If Italy was communist, things would have been completely different. Malta may have been accepted as part of the Union, and may have remained so throughout the 20th Century. The fact there would be a threat immediately north of the islands, would mean that Malta, like in the Second World War, would have been isolated, and would be reliant on the British to defend the Islands. With the memories of the harsh days of the Second World War still burnt into the memories of many, a threat from Communist Italy would have galvanised support for the integration. A Communist Italy would have also undermined the Nationalist Party, who had pro-Italian leanings prior to the War, and had already been undermined by the Fascists. Many members of the Nationalist Party were still of the old pre-War stock, and still preferred Italian. If they were willing to shake off their more conservative leanings (highly unlikely, but bare with me), this would have reversed the balance of politics. Generally, the Labour Party has always been more left-leaning, whereas the Nationalist Party is more conservative. If the Nationalists embraced a Communist Italy, then there is the possibility that the balance of Maltese politics would be reversed. Again, this is highly unlikely, but still possible. This part is almost borderline impossible, as most of the Nationalists were of more conservative stock, some of whom actively engaged in pro-Italian clubs and meetings, before they were shut down by the authorities
If Malta was granted Independence, British forces would have certainly stayed here, the risks of leaving a Communist Italy's southern flank unguarded would be too great. There would have been a larger number of troops, ships, and aircraft here. I would foresee the Malta Submarine Flotilla being kept from disbandment, and even more ships being based out of the Island. I would also assume that at least one aircraft carrier would be permanently based out of the island as well. The RAF would have invested more fighters, and based more squadrons of bombers, probably Canberras of the Bomber and PR variants, with the possibility of V-Bombers. The RAF would have also had to invest more in ASW and transport aircraft, the former to defend the waters around the Islands, the latter to supply the Islands. In regards to ASW aircraft, there is the possibility of investment in this area being taken more seriously, meaning that either more Nimrods would be procured, or even a more suitable type like the HS.800 being bought. With transport aircraft, these would be used as an "aerial convoy" to keep the islands supplied. A number of paratroopers would have probably been based here, and the funding of a rapid deployment brigade wouldn't have been out of the question, with funding for air-droppable light tanks being made more available. British Defence spending would have been increased for sure. As time wore on, the possibility of Phantoms, and eventually, Tornadoes being based out of Malta makes sense. Tornado GR.1s would be used as strike aircraft, while F.3s would be used to patrol vast swathes of the Mediterranean. The idea of a Nimrod Replacement may have been given more thought due to the increased submarine threat, and the Nimrod MRA.4 may not have been produced, instead, a new type would have been procured.
Hopefully this gives some food for thought.
Regards,
Wyvern
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