Guess I should drop my expectation for what the big/exquisite NGAD was going to be.
The USAF NGAD I still think is going to end up
really big due to the range, and they're just going to have to suck up the cost-per-plane. If the USAF goes for A102/103s, which are more or less 35klb engines, then the MTOW will go down some, to maintain a 1:1 T:W ratio at 50% fuel. I do not expect MTOW to be much below 100klbs, however.
I should note that I am also somewhat expecting a "Strike NGAD" to show up, probably at the tail end of production. The F15Es will run out of airframe life in the 2030s and I expect the F15EXs to primarily replace F15C/Ds. Ideally this would be accomodated by the airframe designers making the NGAD bays large enough to hold a decent volume of air-to-ground ordnance.
Since that was posted in late April 2024, the USN has clarified that the engines that they are currently talking about are "derivatives". I am taking that to mean either F110 or F119 designs. Because bluntly, dual F135s just takes way too much fuel. The F-35A holds ~18,000lbs of fuel internally, so to double the combat range of ~675nmi on twin F135s would take on the order of not 36klbs, but 72klbs of fuel! Engine-wise, I am leaning more towards F110 with a CFM56-7 core and a different fan on it (F110-132?). I'm not sure F119s are still in production, while the high end F110s and CFM56s are still in production. Obviously, if the USN is valuing supercruise in their mission profile, that increases the value of F119 as opposed to the F110 due to lower OPR internally. (Do I have that correct,
@F119Doctor ?)
Also, mission wise, the USN is looking much more for a long range penetrating strike plane, and a defensive fighter/interceptor. Basically, an F-14D "Bombcat" on
all the performance-enhancing drugs. So they're likely wanting greater bay volume than the USAF, and less maneuverability WVR in exchange for even lower LO stats.
Because of this mission slant, this could be argued as "Return of A/F-X", and I personally expect it to have main bays the size of the ATA: ~15ft long and deep enough to carry Harpoon/SLAM or HARM/AARGM and GBU-15, enough total volume to carry 4 of those weapons: the MDD bays were apparently 185” long by 34” wide and ~25” deep. Secondary bays would probably be AMRAAM-sized, though question does kinda come to "how many AMRAAMs?" I'm thinking 2-4 AMRAAMs in the secondary bays (1-2 per bay), and likely two main bays. Not quite sure how to square the flight loads issue that the MDD A-12 ran into, with the weapons bays cutting the spars, at least not without a pretty deep belly below the wing spars.
It's possible-but-unlikely that the FAXX weapons bays will be big enough to hold AIM-174Bs. It'd only take about a 6" length stretch over the ATA bay size to allow that, though I think the missiles would need a different wing fold mechanism than the existing Standard. Or a way to shear a tail strap holding the fins closed into a 21" square box.