USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS news

Were the USAF to commit to an F-35/CCA plan then could easily see the F-35 getting back to the 80 a year number or even approaching 100 with some additional investment. Given later SARs already extended out the build to 2043 and also the potential absence of a viable replacement means it becomes almost the only option.

It isn't the only option. The other option is to simply not buy the F-35's originally planned. The AF is clearly headed towards such a reality (unless it reverses course).

Could see that coming back if manned NGAD doesn't go forward. Would be all post 2030 deliveries at this point but certainly feasible.

Anything is possible. Billions diverted to F-35 modernizaiton over what is currently programmed would/could have consequences to the F35 investments in procurement. That could shift acquisition ramps further to the right just like block 4 and its constant delays has done.
 
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It isn't the only option. The other option is to simply not buy the F-35's originally planned. The AF is clearly headed towards such a reality (unless it reverses course).
To prevent an aging fighter fleet being completely geriatric I see no other option. F-15EX isn't a long term option and the USAF has already curtailed that for obvious reasons, what other platform is either in production or possible to be in production for the USAF within a ten year timeframe?
Anything is possible. Billions diverted to F-35 modernizaiton over what is currently programmed would/could have consequences to the F35 investments in procurement. That could shift acquisition ramps further to the right just like block 4 and its constant delays has done.
Yes good and bad consequences with every choice now, the USAF has been painted into a corner...
 
To prevent an aging fighter fleet being completely geriatric I see no other option

The AF has been consistently getting older. Its not a new thing. It has not done [been able to do] anything about it. If the current trends (over the last 10-15 years) are an indication it is unlikely to reverse that decline in any meaningful way.
what other platform is either in production or possible to be in production for the USAF within a ten year timeframe?

There is not any. The AF could simply walk away and decide to be a significantly smaller and/or different force because it decides that its future budget outlook is inconsistent with the sort of modernization or force structure it had anticipated.
 
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The AF has been consistently getting older. Its not a new thing. It has not done [been able to do] anything about it. If the current trends (over the last 10-15 years) are an indication it is unlikely to reverse that decline in any meaningful way.
That is my point. F-35/CAA combo is the means to reverse that is a meaningful way that also doesn't break the budget.
There is not any. The AF could simply walk away and decide to be a significantly smaller and/or different force because it decides that its future budget outlook is inconsistent with the sort of modernization or force structure it had anticipated.
An interesting hypothetical but not one I expect has much basis in reality. I suppose a Trump administration could go full iso and make those decisions but that isn't apparent given the China hawks he has appointed, the rhetoric that is already spewing forth and the current disposition of Congress which ultimately is the body funding or not that type of change.
 
That is my point. F-35/CAA combo is the means to reverse that is a meaningful way that also doesn't break the budget.

Sure, but my point was that the F-35 numbers are pretty baked in at this point and likely to be significantly lower than originally planned.. So its really a CCA future that you are painting..F-35/F-15 will be available in smaller than planned numbers..NGAD - from which the CCA was born could even not happen.
An interesting hypothetical but not one I expect has much basis in reality.

The outcome is actually the one based on looking at what the AF has done in the last decade plus. That is, shed force structure, asked to shed even more force structure, extend older aircraft, and defer modernization.

I for one don't think that this future will pan out though. I expect NGAD to be funded to 'preserve options' for the late 2020s / 2030s timeframe. That obviously does not solve the budget issues and bow wave of the 2030s but I think folks will be smart with this. But if one were to mererly look at what the AF has done, across administrations, one would come to the conclusion that it is destined to shrink just like it has since the 90s.
 
The additional “mass” may be besides the point if the F-35 is incapable of adequately meeting the operational requirements for the NGAD. A major reason cited for the Air Force’s reluctance in ramping up procurement numbers is that the service doesn’t consider the current Block 3F aircraft capable enough in their INDOPACOM war games.

I don’t think any service officials have ever voiced the F-35 even with CCAs as some kind of substitute for NGAD.
 
The additional “mass” may be besides the point if the F-35 is incapable of adequately meeting the operational requirements for the NGAD. A major reason cited for the Air Force’s reluctance in ramping up procurement numbers is that the service doesn’t consider the current Block 3F aircraft capable enough in their INDOPACOM war games.
USAF has been clear for a number of years now they are waiting for Blk 4.

I don’t think any service officials have ever voiced the F-35 even with CCAs as some kind of substitute for NGAD.
Never a substitute but it has always been part of the plan that CCAs and F-35s would work together.

In March 2023, the USAF Secretary revealed the plan to pair at least 1,000 uncrewed CCAs with advanced manned fighters in the near future, in his keynote speech titled “One Team, One Fight” at the 2023 Air Force Association Warfare Symposium held in Colorado.

The plan is tentatively based on the assumption of teaming two CCAs with each of the 200 NGAD platforms and 300 F-35s.

I'm not sure what else those 300 F-35s with CCA would be doing in a neer-peer conflict in the INDOPACOM region other that working with NGAD on all target sets. Take a step back then and look at potentially more capable CCA with F-35. It becomes an argument about where to spend the money for most value, on an attritable airframe you can re-configure rapidly with much lower life cycle costs compared to a high cost exquisite platform that will be difficult to change and adapt to circumstances. USAF has to move on CCAs, it has little choice, but it can decide to wait on NGAD and potentially mitigate the capability delta.
 
Pretty simple to address that. Build an ability to support (logistically and for training etc) about 1000 CCA's. Build another 1000 more and store. You can think the former having something like $400K - $600K CPTPY with the latter a fraction (say <$100K CPTPY of storage and sustainment cost). But for something like this to happen, Congress and OSD would need to overcome the optics of moving something costing $10-15 Million from the factory to a storage warehouse...sort of like what we do with weapons - though in this case they are meant to boost manned fighter shortfalls.
Tell Congress these are more like reusable cruise missiles than airplanes, they're designed to mostly be stored for "break glass in case of war" with a few being used up in training.



I think a radar capable of tracking 5th gen fighters is a non starter in this class of aircraft. It might have a collision avoidance/ECM system, but long range active detection of a J-20 seems iffy even for F-35. However forcing J-20s to either radiate or close to IRST range seems like a workable option, especially if there is a less expensive layer of passive sensor UAVs working with CCA. Turn on your radar? They will snigff you out. Don’t turn on your radar? You’re the one with two huge turbofans and a much larger surface area in the IR spectrum. Choose your pain.
Gonna be a whole lot of 4th and even 3rd gen fighters still flying for a long time. As well as non-stealthy weapons flying around.



I think their understanding of strategic matters is quite limited and thier control of the House of Representatives fleeting, even assuming they cared. We will see how NGAD is prioritized shortly; personally I suspect a lot of people will be disappointed.
Still got the House for 2 years.
 
Sure, but my point was that the F-35 numbers are pretty baked in at this point and likely to be significantly lower than originally planned.. So its really a CCA future that you are painting..F-35/F-15 will be available in smaller than planned numbers..NGAD - from which the CCA was born could even not happen.
I get what you are saying but I don't believe we are baked in yet on what the future numbers of F-35 are.

The outcome is actually the one based on looking at what the AF has done in the last decade plus. That is, shed force structure, asked to shed even more force structure, extend older aircraft, and defer modernization.

I for one don't think that this future will pan out though. I expect NGAD to be funded to 'preserve options' for the late 2020s / 2030s timeframe. That obviously does not solve the budget issues and bow wave of the 2030s but I think folks will be smart with this. But if one were to mererly look at what the AF has done, across administrations, one would come to the conclusion that it is destined to shrink just like it has since the 90s.
I don't think using the last 30 years is a good exemplar for the next 30.
 
get what you are saying but I don't believe we are baked in yet on what the future numbers of F-35 are.
I’d be happy to be proven wrong and one day the AF will actually present a budget with a dramatic ramp in intended F-35 program. It would buck the trend that has been established since pretty much day one of the production program.
 
We're probably better off looking at 1985-1989, Reagan's second term for the appropriate levels of spending.
Perhaps although that wave really started in the late 1970s and carried forward into production in the late 80s. I find this graphic from the Military budget of the US wiki page quite interesting. We talk about shrinking force sizes but the budgets to support that, even though it notionally looks big, isn't really large on comparison to most of the cold war. It could be argued the force size was historically significantly larger but systems today are so more capable than they were then that it probably cancels each other out. Ie we can talk about a single F-35/22/NGAD/B-21 destroying targets that would have taken a wing or more of aircraft to accomplish.

Defense_Spending_as_a_Percent_of_GDP.png
 
Kendall says the Air Force cant afford the $20bn it would take to develop an air-superiority F-22 successor and that their thinking now was to not develop NGAD and instead focus on developing an F-35 multi-role successor for service entry around 2050.

When did the USAF become the USN? That's just a very obvious losing strategy.
 
Would not surprise me to see an even larger buy of later blocks of F-35, and the older (still functional but not as fancy blocks) sold or leased to allied nations on the cheap.

Perhaps the USAF should take a page out of France's AdA and MN in regards to Rafale by selling the early block F-35As to foreign customers and replace them with the latest block F-35As.
 
When did the USAF become the USN? That's just a very obvious losing strategy.

Kendall outlined several options that were studied and explained that none of them were being pursued at this time. No one is proceeding with a focus on an F-35 successor.
 
Kendall outlined several options that were studied and explained that none of them were being pursued at this time. No one is proceeding with a focus on an F-35 successor.

He said NGAD was not in active development and they were focussing on the bomber, intercontinental missile and drone projects rather than new manned aircraft, though he says he personally believes a new manned aircraft would eventually be required contrary to Trump administration rhetoric that the future was drones only not manned aircraft.
 
F-35s that can control CCAs have not been built yet, and there is currently no plan for when that will be or how.
Thats the same for any platform though rather than just F-35? In the short term there are the highly portable tablets being used for trials, but understandably no one wants to commit to putting that interface/code into the cockpit of a fighter before they have to - given the multi year multi 100m $ effort. I am unclear where such is included in the CCA program.
 
Thats the same for any platform though rather than just F-35? In the short term there are the highly portable tablets being used for trials, but understandably no one wants to commit to putting that interface/code into the cockpit of a fighter before they have to - given the multi year multi 100m $ effort. I am unclear where such is included in the CCA program.

No. They believe they can do it with the F-22 and have a plan for it, but it's not clear if it's actually been funded, F-22 CCA integration is so far not the in CCA plans though (it may not need to be).

It is, however, very clear that controlling CCAs from a tablet isn't going to work. They've tried it, it sucks.
 
He said NGAD was not in active development and they were focussing on the bomber, intercontinental missile and drone projects rather than new manned aircraft, though he says he personally believes a new manned aircraft would eventually be required contrary to Trump administration rhetoric that the future was drones only not manned aircraft.

He did not say NGAD was "not in active development", and in fact Kendall and the AF have stated that even during the "pause" NGAD was continuing forward with the already scheduled work and people were getting paid.

What he did say about NGAD was:

Frank Kendall: And the Air Force wrote requirements for an aircraft that is essentially an F 22 replacement. And for the last few years, that's what we've been working on. We're now at the point where we commit to going forward to finish design and go into production of that or not. And this is really the most important milestone for almost any program. And two things made us rethink the that that that platform. One was budgets. You know, under the current budget levels that we have. Um, it was very, very difficult to see how we could possibly afford that platform that we needed another 20 plus billion dollars for R&D. And then we had to start buying airplanes at a cost of multiples of an F-35 that we were never going to afford more than in small numbers.

Frank Kendall: So it got on the table because of that. And then the operators in the Air Force senior operators came in and said, you know, now that we think about this aircraft, we're not sure it's the right, right, right design concept. Is this what we're really going to need? So we spent 3 or 4 months doing analysis, bringing in a lot of prior chiefs of staff and people that had known earlier in my career who I have a lot of respect for, to try to figure out what the right thing to do was at the end of the day. The consensus of that group was largely that there is value in going ahead with this, and there's some industrial base reasons to go ahead. But there are other priorities that we really need to fund first. So this decision ultimately depends upon two judgments. One is about is there enough money in the budget to buy all the other things we need? And NGAD and is NGAD the right thing to buy? Um, the alternatives to the F-22 replacement concept include something that looks more like an F-35, follow on similar, something that's much less expensive, something that's a multi-role aircraft, multirole aircraft that is designed to be a manager of CCAs and designed more for that for that role. And then there was another option we thought about, which is reliance more on long range strike.

Frank Kendall: That's something we could do in any event. So that's sort of on the table period. As an option. It's relatively inexpensive and probably makes some sense to do more that way. Um, but but but the but to keep the industrial base going to get the right concept, the right mix of capability into the Air Force. Um, and do it as efficiently as possible. I think there are a couple of really reasonable options on the table that the next administration is going to have to take a look at. Uh, people have talked about not doing another crewed aircraft. Um, I don't think we're quite there yet. I think that could be considered. Uh, we could just continue to rely on F-35 and keep it going. And for the foreseeable future and focus on CCAs. I'm not quite ready to do that personally, but the next administration could take a look at that. A very prominent industrialist has made a comment about that. Um, you all know what I'm talking about. Uh, the, uh, the the the the culture and the history and the legacy of the Air Force, which I've been steeped in for particularly for the last few years, but for my whole my whole life, really, uh, is about the role of the pilot and letting go to some degree of that, I think is an incredibly difficult emotional thing, emotional thing for people to do. So we'll all I'll, I'll be convincing from the outside and we'll all watch to see how this all plays out over the next few months.
[/quote[
 
He did not say NGAD was "not in active development", and in fact Kendall and the AF have stated that even during the "pause" NGAD was continuing forward with the already scheduled work and people were getting paid.

What he did say about NGAD was:

They announced a Pause last July for a 3-4 month review (its now way past that) and in November they told Congress they weren't awarding new contracts for the next stage of development for the airframe, only moving ahead with the subsidiary CCA development via testing in VENOM F-16's (this element only compromises 20% of the previously allocated project funds).

They are spending just $276 million in 2024 and $815m in 2025 from previous NGAD program allocations of $1.9bn and $2.4bn respectively.
 
 
Original SARs, for example 2013, has the build rate at 80 frame a year all the way through to the late 2030s. While I agree consistent procurement has been a rock show to date there are, as you know, reasons why.

Were the USAF to commit to an F-35/CCA plan then could easily see the F-35 getting back to the 80 a year number or even approaching 100 with some additional investment. Given later SARs already extended out the build to 2043 and also the potential absence of a viable replacement means it becomes almost the only option.

Then NGAD can wholly invest in CCAs and push that as fast and as far as it can go.
Buying 100 of a futur obsolete fighter in face of J-36 is a non sense , there is no issue insteed building the NGAD , the F-35 is not powerfull enough and to short legs for fighting big fighter like the new Chinese one.
 
They are spending just $276 million in 2024 and $815m in 2025 from previous NGAD program allocations of $1.9bn and $2.4bn respectively.

That will obviously change (FY25) if the incoming administration decides to pursue the path of a manned NGAD platform which seems to have been the path forward recommended by blue ribbon committee established by the Air Force to look into its 'options'. In an ideal world, this review should have wrapped up in November and a decision made in December..a roughly 4-6 month timeframe for the pause.

But the current AF leaders have decided to punt to incoming administration which has realistically added about a year to the program if they go back and enact the original plan (source selection). The Trump administration has not yet announced its SecAF candidate. It could well be that the incoming AF leadership isn't even in place till the spring..and even when in place, decides to have another review to help develop a path forward (can't blame them for that really).

Kendall has stated that the teams are funded to preserve that option within the decision space. I read that as a 'hold in place' level of funding as opposed to anything that moves the program forward which would entail actually selecting a winner and funding them to go into next steps of the effort.
 
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Still got the House for 2 years.

…by a historically low margin such that any budget hawk or culture war ideologue can overturn the apple cart. Johnson’s return to the Speaker position required personal calls from Trump and the sober realization the House majority was going to eat itself otherwise. I do not see the ‘Freedom caucus’ allowing more money for defense without cuts to entitlements, and I do not see the moderates in purple districts dying on that hill for the party. I cannot think of a scenario where USAF gets significantly more money for NGAD, Sentinel, etc.
 
Buying 100 of a futur obsolete fighter in face of J-36 is a non sense , there is no issue insteed building the NGAD , the F-35 is not powerfull enough and to short legs for fighting big fighter like the new Chinese one.
I think we can reserve judgement on the capability of any of the new Chinese aircraft for now. They could all turn out to be wonder beaters or underpowered dogs with systems issues... I still expect the F-35 to be very competitive for many years to come.
That will obviously change (FY25) if the incoming administration decides to pursue the path of a manned NGAD platform which seems to have been the path forward recommended by blue ribbon committee established by the Air Force to look into its 'options'. In an ideal world, this review should have wrapped up in November and a decision made in December..a roughly 4-6 month timeframe for the pause.

But the current AF leaders have decided to punt to incoming administration which has realistically added about a year to the program if they go back and enact the original plan (source selection). Kendall has stated that the teams are funded to preserve that option within the decision space. I read that as a 'hold in place' level of funding as opposed to anything that moves the program forward which would entail actually selecting a winner and funding them to go into next steps of the effort.
Some of that feels a bit like sour grapes from Kendall. He wanted to stay on but isn't part of the future plans for the new Administration. I don't think he has done anything untoward, he loves the USAF too much for that, but he could have made the decision and made the new Administration live with it.
 
…by a historically low margin such that any budget hawk or culture war ideologue can overturn the apple cart. Johnson’s return to the Speaker position required personal calls from Trump and the sober realization the House majority was going to eat itself otherwise. I do not see the ‘Freedom caucus’ allowing more money for defense without cuts to entitlements, and I do not see the moderates in purple districts dying on that hill for the party. I cannot think of a scenario where USAF gets significantly more money for NGAD, Sentinel, etc.

The outgoing SecDef Loyd Austin called for (back in November) a hike in FY26 defense spending to the tune of about $50 Billion.

Outgoing U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has recommended a boost in defense spending by about $50 billion more than the current 2026 projections, a move that could push the defense budget beyond $1 trillion in the coming years, Bloomberg News reported on Monday.
LINK

And then there's this from the H/SASC. There seems to be some movement to get more defense dollars for FY25 and 26 which I assume would run through the rest of the incoming administrations term if that's the path they pursue. An annual $25-50 Bn increase over Biden's FYDP might not be a lot of money but might just be enough to sway decisions on NGAD and some other holdups.
The chairs of the House and Senate Armed Services committees are pushing for a major defense spending boost in Republicans’ reconciliation package.

Senate Armed Services chair Roger Wicker is proposing $120 billion more for the Pentagon. And House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers plans to make the case to President-elect Donald Trump this weekend at Mar-a-Lago that a defense addition should be rolled into the GOP-only package. LINK

We have a Dem appointed SecDef and GOP majority HASC and SASC both kind of saying the same thing. We might still not get a funding boost, but this is as much a 'bi--partisan' support that you can expect for this kind of a thing in today's political appointment.
 
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1000nm missile just call for being able to fight your so wanted air dominance.
In 1942, the USAAC didn't base the entire 8th AF out of reach of the Nazi. They stand right at the reach of Luftwaffe bombers and heavy fighters. It involved a litany of CAP everyday by RAF and pursuit fighters during the war. We only remembered the epic deep escort and strike, that's it.
Idem over Henderson field. The air supremacy was not granted. Marines and Army Air corps had to fight every day in the air and on the ground to guarantee the safe operations of projected air power that had become epic with the time.

As said earlier, there is only one way out: remember the Cactus AF.
 
Perhaps although that wave really started in the late 1970s and carried forward into production in the late 80s. I find this graphic from the Military budget of the US wiki page quite interesting. We talk about shrinking force sizes but the budgets to support that, even though it notionally looks big, isn't really large on comparison to most of the cold war. It could be argued the force size was historically significantly larger but systems today are so more capable than they were then that it probably cancels each other out. Ie we can talk about a single F-35/22/NGAD/B-21 destroying targets that would have taken a wing or more of aircraft to accomplish.

View attachment 755845

Where is this chart from?
 
WW3 is absolutely on the cards within the next 10 years - the incoming administration will have to increase defense spending somehow.
 
WW3 is absolutely on the cards within the next 10 years - the incoming administration will have to increase defense spending somehow.

Congress is the organization that would have to do that. And quite honestly that seems unlikely.

Some tough decisions need to be made about what to keep and what to retire and Congress needs to allow the USAF to make those decisions if it will not provide more money.
 
Congress is the organization that would have to do that. And quite honestly that seems unlikely.

Some tough decisions need to be made about what to keep and what to retire and Congress needs to allow the USAF to make those decisions if it will not provide more money.

The Air Force has already made those decisions. It will have a much smaller fighter force of 4 (manned) types + possibly NGAD by about 2027.
 
So here’s the transcript, with interesting parts bold.

And two things made us rethink the that [NGAD] platform. One was budgets. You know, under the current budget levels that we have, it was very, very difficult to see how we could possibly afford that platform that we needed another 20 plus billion dollars for R&D. And then we had to start buying airplanes at a cost of multiples of an F-35 that we were never going to afford more than in small numbers. So it got on the table because of that. And then the operators in the Air Force, senior operators, came in and said, “You know, now that we think about this aircraft, we're not sure it's the right design concept. Is this what we're really going to need?” So we spent 3 or 4 months doing analysis, bringing in a lot of prior chiefs of staff and people that had known earlier in my career who I have a lot of respect for, to try to figure out what the right thing to do was at the end of the day. The consensus of that group was largely that there is value in going ahead with this, and there's some industrial base reasons to go ahead. But there are other priorities that we really need to fund first. So this decision ultimately depends upon two judgments. One is about is there enough money in the budget to buy all the other things we need and NGAD? And is NGAD the right thing to buy? The alternatives to the F-22 replacement concept include something that looks more like an F-35 follow-on. Something that's much less expensive, something that's a multirole aircraft that is designed to be a manager of CCAs and designed more for that role. And then there was another option we thought about, which is reliance more on long range strike. That's something we could do in any event. So that's sort of on the table period, as an option. It's relatively inexpensive and probably makes some sense to do more that way. But to keep the industrial base going to get the right concept, the right mix of capability into the Air Force, and do it as efficiently as possible, I think there are a couple of really reasonable options on the table that the next administration is going to have to take a look at.

So this seems interesting since Gen Wilsbach, ACC commander last year said that there’s currently no F-22 replacement. So does this mean that a smaller cheaper NGAD replaces F-35, and F-22 just retires without a replacement? For industrial base reasons it seems like an aircraft will be selected just not sure if it will be F-22 or F-35 follow on, but if the latter then CCAs will be a lot more important.
 
There's been lots of talk about 6th generation fighters lately... but what exactly is required for the title?Alex Hollings from Sandboxx just uploaded this video about what is a 6th generation fighter:


 
F-22, F-35, F-15EX, F-18E/F, no F-16? NGAD by 2027?

The continued use of legacy aircraft has become costly to both fly and repair. Streamlining the current fighter fleet by transitioning to NGAD, F-35 Lightning II, F-15EX Strike Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon and right-sizing the A-10 Thunderbolt II will ensure the capability, capacity and affordability required to meet the peer threat.


Kelly's presentation form that AFA event (2021) is worth watching/rewatching again.
 

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