Ukrainian ASAT

[World B4]

Ukraine doesn’t really have a military application for its access to space, could an ASAT weapon based on an old Soviet missile, commercial rocket, air launch, directed energy, or electronic attack be useful in cutting Russian space assets and forcing them into a better position to face attrition or be brought to the negotiating table on more favorable terms?

 

[Pioneer]

I would think by Ukraine knocking out strategic assets like Russian satellites would unquestionably escalate things substantially for various reason. Don't forget that satellite intel be it image or ELINT is used just as much as situation awareness and verification, as that of nav or platform/weapons guidance.
My thoughts are, if Russia was blinded and could not monitor lets say the Lithuanian, Latvian or Polish boarder to Ukraine, not able to determine what type and how many given weapons systems are entering Ukraine, it might prompt Russia to increase the size, scope and depth of it's Special Military Operation as a consequence.

Sorry, I know it's a WhatIf

Regards
 Pioneer

 

[sferrin]

Ukraine doesn’t really have a military application for its access to space, could an ASAT weapon based on an old Soviet missile, commercial rocket, air launch, directed energy, or electronic attack be useful in cutting Russian space assets and forcing them into a better position to face attrition or be brought to the negotiating table on more favorable terms?

Ukraine doesn't have the infrastructure to pull off an ASAT shot if somebody GAVE them the missile.

 

[World B4]

Ukraine doesn't have the infrastructure to pull off an ASAT shot if somebody GAVE them the missile

I assume a dew, co-orbital, or da-asat is off the table, but what about dazzling or blinding with a lower power laser, ew assets with exoatmospheric reach, or an air launch from a An-124 or Su-27? Certain targeting info could be supplied by a friendly nation

 

[World B4]

A lot of satellites are dual use and/or have their orbits made public, so targeting might be viable. Ukraine is producing solid motors for Grom tbms, S-300 sams, and an upgraded R-27 aam. Three stage equivalent to Early Spring? https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/usa-asat-merging-sparrow-and-polaris.35699/
Obviously the biggest hurdle for a direct ascent or really any kinetic ASAT is the international outcry, and a country that depends on the goodwill of liberal nations to exist might see this as a really bad idea, but I wonder if a convincing mockup might spook some Russians and take their time away from analyzing real capabilities. Also, Kessler Syndrome Bad. So if you can replicate the impact without, you know, an actual impact, you don’t need to hamper your tactical missile production to live rent free in Russian heads

 

[World B4]

Actually, it shouldn’t even be that hard given the small size air launched asats the US developed in the 60s, a mock-up followed by an “aquiescence to our allies and our world in the face of invasion and genocide” could be good pr

 

[TheKutKu]

I think we’re more likely to see sabotage of satellites from russian ground segments (some of what I’ve heard from acquaintances would mean that they easily accept conscript in some important ground segment manipulation roles in the army, it seems easy to infiltrate)

that a or disruption of supply lines for satellite and launcher production (the latter has arguably already happened, eg the recent explosion at NPO Avtomatiki which also makes Soyuz guidance systems) through sabotage and drone strikes, current Russian orbital reconnaissance and military com fleet is not really in good shape in term of number and supply chain problems are really being felt this year for new satellites, this is also where the Ukrainians can (and probably already try to) have the most impact.

Kinetic ASAT seems technically achievable for Ukraine within a timeframe that could still be in the war, but I still think it’s off limits, it just has too many pollution consequences for everyone and limited upsides. It’s just not worth it. If anything a drone strike on plesetsk may be more likely and much more internationally acceptable.