There is hiring news and then there is hiring news.

[edwest4]

Over the last several months, Wall Street has waited for the jobs and unemployment figures and then would wring their hands when the numbers were not "as expected." Strangely, industrial output did better than predictions. But the actual number of jobs added per month was also revised - upward - today.

"US employers hired more new workers in October than expected, after a slowdown in the summer.
Firms added 531,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.6%, official figures showed. [4.6% was the figure in early March 2020 before the lockdowns.]

"Revised data for September showed that many more jobs were created that month, 312,000, than the 197,000 initially reported.

"Figures for August were also revised upwards from 366,000 to 483,000."

What does that tell us about the highly paid analysts who watch and report on such things? Not just the government reports but the reports from companies involved in payroll processing? And they are still "guessing" about why some people do not or cannot return to work. Something is not right.


Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59166014

 

[Orionblamblam]

An important detail: how many of these jobs are *new* jobs, and how many of them are jobs that got trashed by the lockdowns, and are just managing to come back?

 

[Arjen]

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future - Niels Bohr

 

[edwest4]

An important detail: how many of these jobs are *new* jobs, and how many of them are jobs that got trashed by the lockdowns, and are just managing to come back?

Based on my research, here's what happened:

Those working in bars and restaurants lost their jobs, so it was unemployment or getting a job at an "essential" business like grocery stores, Walmart or Amazon. If these people were paid more at their new jobs then they would not return to their old jobs. Amazon hired quite a few people to make it larger in terms of packages going out and money coming in. Amazon even increased workers' pay.

The so-called hospitality sector and other types of businesses who lost workers to lockdowns won't see them coming back because they've relocated to higher paying jobs, some who could retire did so, and some even started their own businesses.

I regularly drive by fast-food restaurants who are hiring and offering better pay than in the past, and even college grants/money. So the usual crop of teenagers are appearing there. I've seen them. But some restaurants are operating at reduced hours and still making money, as opposed to staying open longer and seeing only a trickle of customers later in the day. Some places are drive-thru only. You can't go inside to order. Other places allow people to come in and sit down. I've seen that as well, but the results are low foot traffic to high. It's inconsistent.

Some people are afraid to go to virus hotspots like bars and restaurants. Some people are afraid to work there for the same reason, including grocery stores. Or other environments where close contact is required between workers or customers.

The other problem is child care. A lot of kids aren't allowed inside school buildings, but some are. They sit behind crude partitions, but that "experiment," and it is nothing less, has generally failed. Kids get infected and go home. Some parents don't want their kids in school. Now that a vaccine is available for kids who are 5 to 11, how many parents will allow it? Based on adult acceptance and rejection, those in charge of monitoring this health crisis already have a good idea of what parents will do.

So it's not just about the money. It's about at-risk people and people who refuse to get a vaccine.

And regarding actual employment numbers, predictions are based on facts. And the so-called adjustments appearing today means someone knew the actual numbers for the months in question but withheld it until now. That, I think, is why Wall Street is experiencing record days now. They knew this, and about "stronger than expected factory activity" during the months in question. In other words, while The Media whines and complains, Wall Street is doing great. Things are better than was let on and the Rivian IPO launches next week along with opening of the borders of Canada and Mexico on Monday for vaccinated travelers. Add the Pfizer antiviral pill announcement today to the Merck antiviral pill, and things will settle down in short order for the population of the United States.

The UK is not waiting for FDA approval for the Merck antiviral, they've gone ahead and given it conditional approval.