The 2005 French Guyana war with Brazil or "France own Falklands"

[Archibald]

Just for the fun of it... I've long toyed with a "France own Falklands war" scenario.

POD would be this...

VLS-1 V03 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And then, Brazil goes down the drain. I wrote that in 2007 but considering the Petrobras scandal, Lula and Rousseff falls from power and the advent of that giant SOB Bolsonaro, maybe - maybe - it could have happened.

So let's say the Petrobras scandal is even worse, and an even bigger bastard than Bolsonaro (hard to beat: he set the bar even above DJT, his model) turns Brazil authoritarian.

And then, on August 22, 2003 - boom goes Alcantara and boom, goes VLS and its engineers.

Madman is so angered, and in need to recoup his space program loss... he decides to seize Kourou, on the other side of the border. France already sold Foch to Brazil, rebranded Sao Paolo. Somewhat out of the blue, in 2006 they buy the old Clemenceau hulk, for spares. And also second-hand Hornets (the irony: Foch gets Hornets it didn't get in 1989, because Dassault Rafale).

Make no mistake, this is only a pretext for warship porn: Clemenceau vs CdG, obviously.

Despite valiant resistance by the handful of French Foreign Legion there, Kourou gets invaded... and now france has its Falklands scenario. With Guadeloupe and Martinique in the role of Ascension Island (but no Vulcans, unfortunately).

By 2006 French armed forces are a mixed bag, still reeling from post Cold War cuts. There will be blood, when reconquest will happen...

 

[Fluff]

Well, obviously the UK wouldn't want to take sides, so its humanitarian aid only, for some reason all the rations sent were Roast Beef.....

The UK would have Harriers flying CAP out of Belize to contain any spillovers.

 

[SSgtC]

Could Foch even operate Hornets? I was under the impression that they were just that little bit too heavy for her 151' cats to launch

 

[Archibald]

It was considered in 1989 as a Crusader - Rafale stopgap, so it certainly can be done.
Max weight the Foch cats could throw at a reasonable speed, was 17 mt. This is barely enough for a partially fueled Hornet with 2 AAM on the wingtips. Buddy-buddy refueling would be mandatory to go anywhere. And 2 AIM-9 or 2 Magic-2 isn't much (plus internal gun, ok).

Mc Donnell-Douglas F-18 (FN) Hornet [in french]

Mc Donnell-Douglas F-18 (FN) Hornet [in french]

 

[SSgtC]

It was considered in 1989 as a Crusader - Rafale stopgap, so it certainly can be done.
Max weight the Foch cats could throw at a reasonable speed, was 17 mt. This is barely enough for a partially fueled Hornet with 2 AAM on the wingtips. Buddy-buddy refueling would be mandatory to go anywhere. And 2 AIM-9 or 2 Magic-2 isn't much (plus internal gun, ok).

Mc Donnell-Douglas F-18 (FN) Hornet [in french]

Mc Donnell-Douglas F-18 (FN) Hornet [in french]

That's such a light load though that there's really no point in even having them. I don't even think buddy tanking is possible in that scenario. Two sidewinders only weigh 376 pounds total. The equivalent weight in JP-5 is only 55 US gallons. You're better off going with updated Skyhawks

ETA: The 28-300 buddy store, which is the smallest buddy refueling pod, weighs 725 pounds empty. So it's too heavy to even put on a Hornet and launch it from Foch

 

[riggerrob]

How good are rail and road links between Northern Brazil and the three Guyanas?

 

[lordroel]

Just for the fun of it... I've long toyed with a "France own Falklands war" scenario.

I can see the Netherlands being invited by Suriname to help protect the country, a couple of Dutch F-16s, a marine battalion and some air defense might help in keeping the conflict a Brazil-French only.

 

[Archibald]

How good are rail and road links between Northern Brazil and the three Guyanas?

Probably atrocious or non existing. Then again, *realism* and *seriousness* were not exactly, hallmarks of that story...

 

[Zoo Tycoon]

Would France just retake the Kourou site or the whole of French Guyana? Given the countryside on the other side of the boundary fence and value to France of the remainder of the country, it means any military adventure would be quite a different proposition.

That’ll be the likely boundary for any final peace treaty anyway.

 

[Nick Sumner]

Make no mistake, this is only a pretext for warship porn

And there's nothing wrong with that...

 

[Archibald]

Would France just retake the Kourou site or the whole of French Guyana? Given the countryside on the other side of the boundary fence and value to France of the remainder of the country, it means any military adventure would be quite a different proposition.

That’ll be the likely boundary for any final peace treaty anyway.

Probably retake the entire French Guyana, every single square meter of it.

 

[Archibald]

Make no mistake, this is only a pretext for warship porn

And there's nothing wrong with that...

CdG vs Clemenceau, although the second won't last very long.

It is also for the sheer irony of the whole thing. Similar to Argentina in the Falklands having Type 42 destroyers, Canberra bombers, when fighting the British.

 

[lordroel]

Make no mistake, this is only a pretext for warship porn

And there's nothing wrong with that...

CdG vs Clemenceau, although the second won't last very long.

It is also for the sheer irony of the whole thing. Similar to Argentina in the Falklands having Type 42 destroyers, Canberra bombers, when fighting the British.

You monster A-4s versus Super Étendards and Rafales is like sending a bulldog out to fight with a Chihuahua.

 

[Zoo Tycoon]

Would France just retake the Kourou site or the whole of French Guyana? Given the countryside on the other side of the boundary fence and value to France of the remainder of the country, it means any military adventure would be quite a different proposition.

That’ll be the likely boundary for any final peace treaty anyway.

Probably retake the entire French Guyana, every single square meter of it.

Even should France give Brazil a serious kicking, which I’m sure they would, successfully recapturing every last square meter, the country’s topography is prefect for an Indochina 2.0. It would rapidly degenerate into a prolonged bloodbath protecting land that’s of no value to anyone. How long would France be prepared to repatriate their dead young guys from such an adventure? What happens next? would the US move financially against Brazil? Would Brazil strengthen ties to Moscow?

 

[riggerrob]

To answer my own question: French Guyana is only linked to Brazil by a single bridge. That bridge is near the northern coast. The highway is not paved all the way to the next major city in Brazil.
Even worse, French Guyana is only linked to Surinam by a ferry boat!
The southern third of FG looks to be reserved for natives ... with hardly any roads. So any invasion would start from the air, but depend heavily on sea-lift. There is nothing in Southern FG worth wasting an army (from a whitemans’ perspective). Natives could kill off invading infantry at their leisure.

 

[lordroel]

To answer my own question: French Guyana is only linked to Brazil by a single bridge. That bridge is near the northern coast. The highway is not paved all the way to the next major city in Brazil.
Even worse, French Guyana is only linked to Surinam by a ferry boat!
The southern third of FG looks to be reserved for natives ... with hardly any roads. So any invasion would start from the air, but depend heavily on sea-lift. There is nothing in Southern FG worth wasting an army (from a whitemans’ perspective). Natives could kill off invading infantry at their leisure.

Any Brazil airborne landing and land invasion will see them getting into contact with the French 3rd Foreign Infantry Regiment (3e REI) and the 9th Marine Infantry Regiment (9e RIMa) which is together something like 1,200 men, they are not going down without a fight.

 

[Archibald]

Note that the Foreign legion is highly trained to FG jungle fighting.
Yes, it will probably be a bloodbath...

 

[lordroel]

Note that the Foreign legion is highly trained to FG jungle fighting.
Yes, it will probably be a bloodbath...

So are some of their Brazilian counterparts i assume.

 

[Archibald]

To answer my own question: French Guyana is only linked to Brazil by a single bridge. That bridge is near the northern coast. The highway is not paved all the way to the next major city in Brazil.

Even worse, French Guyana is only linked to Surinam by a ferry boat!

The southern third of FG looks to be reserved for natives ... with hardly any roads. So any invasion would start from the air, but depend heavily on sea-lift. There is nothing in Southern FG worth wasting an army (from a whitemans’ perspective). Natives could kill off invading infantry at their leisure.

You can bet the French would wreck all this few links just to slow the Brazilian invaders. Unless, of course, they stormed the whole thing by surprise (as the Argies did in the Falklands).

 

[Michel Van]

Looking for good scenario
Would not more realistic if Military Junta of Brazil try to get the Guyanas in 1980s ?

And get in Hell of Problems as the French the Dutch and the British to join forces
While Brazil Army learn a new fear in Guyana: the French Foreign Legion
Follow by new dangerous phenomenon: extrem low flying french combat jets

 

[riggerrob]

Add in a ficticous French nuclear or biological weapon - launched from French Guyana - and you could write an exciting spy/action thriller novel.

 

[Archibald]

Mind you, Ariane storable propellants would make it an ICBM not unlike Titan II, if not a bit larger...