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The next LSA phase was supposed to have a selection by now, which may/should tell us more about where things are going.An interesting theory I've come across is that the USAF may select AR-1 for Vulcan in the belief that New Glenn will eventually arrive with BE-4 even if BO looses out on Vulcan, and thus provide the redundancy of 3 vehicle families (Falcon, Vulcan, NG) with 3 separate engine lines. I think they'd have to deal with some pushback if they went this route, but it would certainly preserve/support the widest industrial base possible.
The next LSA phase was supposed to have a selection by now, which may/should tell us more about where things are going.
An interesting theory I've come across is that the USAF may select AR-1 for Vulcan in the belief that New Glenn will eventually arrive with BE-4 even if BO looses out on Vulcan, and thus provide the redundancy of 3 vehicle families (Falcon, Vulcan, NG) with 3 separate engine lines. I think they'd have to deal with some pushback if they went this route, but it would certainly preserve/support the widest industrial base possible.
