Good chance, assuming there is not wild political change in the next 10 years. And even if there is, no guarantee the nations wont remain politically close. Belarus got internal prices for Su-30SME, and a bunch of other subsidized Russian weaponry.
Why low? They bought a bunch of yak-130s and other trainers, indicating an intention for a larger modern fighter fleet in the future. Between all the MiG-29s and MiG-21 knockoffs there is a fair chance they would look seriously at a LTS type fighter in a decade. Also there were reports they were looking closely at Su-30SME.
Those were Indian media inventions. At the time no stealth treated T-50s were even fling and regardless India never got access to them. What really happened is they couldn't afford the level of participation they wanted, the plane was raw, and Indian procurement is a mess. They might look at the plane again in future years, and LTS would be an obvious offer.
Su-57 is a much more advanced product than 75. S-ducts is irrelevant to Su-57s stealth anyways.
Kazakhstan is buying up to 36 Su-30SME right now (yes at internal prices), that leaves several dozen tactical aircraft, MiG-29s and MiG-31s. LTS is sort of a weird replacement for the 31s, but otherwise LTS would be an obvious choice for filling the fleet out, maybe even replacing Su-30s in the distant future.
They bought dozens of MiG-29s and a small batch (6 or 8) Su-30SME recently, so I think the chance here is decent. Willingness to spend reasonably and large enough fleet size to justify a unifying type.
Zero chance IMO
Good chance IMO. A few years ago Uzbekistan and Russian relations became warmer and they have resumed purchasing new equipment for the first time since basically fall of USSR. Apparently are about to buy Su-30s. If they end up standardizing on Su-30 it might ruin LTS chances for a while, but on the other hand their fleet is relatively big.
They just took part in the CSTO operation in Kazakhstan, and one would think military modernization would be a priority after the drubbing their outdated force took. They buy subsidized anyways.
UN arms embargo expired and it sounds like Russia is finally tired of kowtowing to the US over Iran (already started selling SAMs). Iran buying modern Flankers might be right around the corner. I'd say at least mid chance for LTS.
Ethiopia fights a civil war every 10 years, but the existing fighter fleet surely will need to be replaced in ~10 years.
Then there are wild cards such as Iraq, Egypt and Indonesia (CAASTA won't last forever I hope!), Gulf States as a long shot, between sub-saharan African and latin america you might find a couple countries that are a good fit. Laos just bought trainers, they might be looking at a jet in the future, although that is a big economic stretch.
Even if 1/6 of those potential customers bites, they have an OK economic case with LTS, assuming the plane can be delivered to be both affordable and capable with enough hand-me-downs from the PAK-FA project.
I just want to see the plane fly at this point!
