fightingirish said:
But we must wait and see how the financial crisis will affect the Chinese carrier program.
But I think the most important part on that story is how the politics and esp. the military leaders decide on their priorities.
Regarding the "development" of a carrier-capable fighter its a story running thru the www since many years beginning with the rumour of a twin-engined, EF-look-alike J-10 version once called J-10B, followed by the more or less substantial report that China managed to acquire one of the Su-33 prototypes via the Ukrainian and the efforts to develop a version called J-11BJ.
Besides that there are repeated reports or better to say rumours that the original J-10B was actually once a real concept, which was later replaced by a more improved and semi-stealthy version … others say this was a derivate of the original CAC submission to the XXJ, which was at that time given to SAC, which also lost out to SAC’s more realistic approach to develop a Flanker-derived type. … But since then, the favours changed again, the XXJ was finally shifted again to CAC which should now develop this type in cooperation with SAC based on CAC’s design … and [rumour-modus on] the navy changed its mind to proceed with an all-new design and leave the Flanker-version. [rumour-modus off].
So long I would have said its much too early even to speculate … all types so far where more or less nice what-if-types with the J-11BJ maybe the most realistic one, but as Paul said Huitong is “normally fairly conservative” and very carefully in posting such things. On the other side he’s one of the best known and well respected guys in the Chinese forum-community – making him a really “Big shrimp” – so it seems these latest reports are much more substantial than anything before.
As far as I know by now, these latest reports were “initiated” after a Chinese newspaper (or online-magazine) reported of the delivery of the first landing gear … something no-one would have expected at this stage, so it means the project seems to have gained momentum and that it has proceeded a step further. These two pictures – which cause some wild speculation in some forums – are as far as I know are only examples shown in a TV-report of possible future types and a discussion about which direction the J-13 might take; nothing substantial.
Therefore … lets take a cup of coffee and wait.
Below, that was the picture “fightingirish” mentioned ….
Deino