Shenyang / Chengdu 6th Gen Demonstrators?

totoro said:
Again with the 24 m wingspan idea. Can anyone provide the process of measurement that leads to such wingspan for j36?
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I used the planform of @paralay 's 3-view drawing. I don't know how he came to this conclusion, but he is usually not far off.

Edit: This or other images showing J-36 and J-20 together most likely have been used to estimate dimensions...
image-6.png
 
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NMaude said:
Alex Hollings from Sandboxx has put out a video concerning these new "6th Generation" aircraft that China ha revealed:

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Should I take an extra beta blocker before I watch it?

Update: I dipped into it and I don't think there's anything new. Why the **** does he have to talk in ALL CAPS, like a very large duck reciting the telephone directory?
 
Airborne2001 said:
According to this tweet the US  allegedly may be ahead of the curve. What do we think?:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1875324677779841166
View: https://x.com/TheAviationist/status/1875324677779841166

Also, I can't believe I missed the 2020 secret US flight mentioned in the tweet.
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I think no-one denies thsi and indeed there are several hints, the US have already flown maybe more than one demonstrator. The point is however: This is all based on rumours, some reports and we still lack a photographic evidence like we now have for both from SAC and CAC!

What I however find funny - or annoying in case you have to discuss with a hardcore US-supremacist like I did yesterday - it's really easy to dismiss both Chinese types as being NOT 6th generation fighters without giving a reason, while at the same time the US so far did not even provide any proof that they actually flew a prototype nor that their alleged prototypes meet the criteria of a 6th generation fighter!
 
LowObservable said:
Should I take an extra beta blocker before I watch it?

Update: I dipped into it and I don't think there's anything new. Why the **** does he have to talk in ALL CAPS, like a very large duck reciting the telephone directory?
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...claiming that the J-36 is a derivative of the J-20... **sigh** Otherwise most of the statements are not ridiculous.
 
Deino said:
I think no-one denies thsi and indeed there are several hints, the US have already flown maybe more than one demonstrator. The point is however: This is all based on rumours, some reports and we still lack a photographic evidence like we now have for both from SAC and CAC!

What I however find funny - or annoying in case you have to discuss with a hardcore US-supremacist like I did yesterday - it's really easy to dismiss both Chinese types as being NOT 6th generation fighters without giving a reason, while at the same time the US so far did not even provide any proof that they actually flew a prototype nor that their alleged prototypes meet the criteria of a 6th generation fighter!
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I find it amazing how dismissive people are. Like the claim the other day that 'their 5th generation is our 4th generation, their 6th will match our 5th, you just need to take a generation off')... a lot of very arbitrary statements without clear evidence.

That type of ego and dismissiveness to rivals is what causes empires to fall (or at least suffer major defeats).

By the way, anyone want to take bets that 'variable cycle engines' will become a key feature of the definition of '6th generation' now? Given that it seems to be the only feature of NGAD which the J-36 likely won't have?
 
Avimimus said:
I find it amazing how dismissive people are. Like the claim the other day that 'their 5th generation is our 4th generation, their 6th will match our 5th, you just need to take a generation off')... a lot of very arbitrary statements without clear evidence.

That type of ego and dismissiveness to rivals is what causes empires to fall (or at least suffer major defeats).

By the way, anyone want to take bets that 'variable cycle engines' will become a key feature of the definition of '6th generation' now? Given that it seems to be the only feature of NGAD which the J-36 likely won't have?
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I'm pretty sure a few credible PLA watchers have said the final engines for the J-36s are going to be VCEs, but depending on how fast they get it into service there's a decent chance it'll be sporting some WS-15 variant at first.
 
Tomboy said:
I'm pretty sure a few credible PLA watchers have said the final engines for the J-36s are going to be VCEs, but depending on how fast they get it into service there's a decent chance it'll be sporting some WS-15 variant at first.
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I think that the production jet will have to have the VCE engines. Otherwise it doesn't make sense as the on-board systems require too much power which I doubt that the WS-15 or any other conventional engine can generate
 
Airborne2001 said:
According to this tweet the US  allegedly may be ahead of the curve. What do we think?:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1875324677779841166
View: https://x.com/TheAviationist/status/1875324677779841166

Also, I can't believe I missed the 2020 secret US flight mentioned in the tweet.
Click to expand...
It's possible, but let's remember that the US has a number of black projects going on so these can be anything really. We've seen very little regarding the NGAD prototypes which flew in 2020, and I have no doubt that the systems are in development, it's now just a case of redefining requirements, getting Congressional approval and ramping up industry.
 
Deino said:
I think no-one denies thsi and indeed there are several hints, the US have already flown maybe more than one demonstrator. The point is however: This is all based on rumours, some reports and we still lack a photographic evidence like we now have for both from SAC and CAC!
Click to expand...

I would not say these were rumors or hints.

In 2015 the Department of Defense stated very publicly that they intended to build 2 different air dominance X-planes, one for the Navy and one for the Air Force.
In late 2020 the Air Force announced that the Air Force NGAD demonstrator had already been flying.
In June of 2021 a Senator stated he had seen "NGAD" in person earlier in the year.
 
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Avimimus said:
By the way, anyone want to take bets that 'variable cycle engines' will become a key feature of the definition of '6th generation' now? Given that it seems to be the only feature of NGAD which the J-36 likely won't have?
Click to expand...
Russians have also announced working on variable cycle engines like 5+ years ago, even 5+ years ago China was flying AL-31s on J-20s which is like 2 generations behind the AL-51. I have higher hopes that the KAAN flies with their domestic engines before the J-36 flies with a variable cycle engine because engine technology took years of development and research to reach each generation requirement, and it is not something you immediately complete with just snapping your fingers.

This is why people should not be disappointed if others suggest ideas that it won't be a true 6th generation aircraft like particularly what the engine performance will be. It is a little difficult to get into the mindset that 2 new aircraft projects from China that look aerodynamically like 2 different stealth UAV projects are another generation from an F-22 or F-35 without giving us some kind of exclusive technology details that makes it one generation ahead. Usually if you claim you are one generation ahead you would have to give some details of why you believe you have the air to air or air to ground superiority that others don't have like do you have quantum radars or something? To me the aircraft doesn't have any new exclusive engine technology and if they did it will take a long while, and I already have a feeling the avionics and missiles will not be all that different from what the west produces or has. No one here even entertained the idea if it has a degree of stealth better than a F-22 or F-35. My current expectations for the aircraft just feel so underwhelming.
 
Null said:
Russians have also announced working on variable cycle engines like 5+ years ago, even 5+ years ago China was flying AL-31s on J-20s which is like 2 generations behind the AL-51. I have higher hopes that the KAAN flies with their domestic engines before the J-36 flies with a variable cycle engine because engine technology took years of development and research to reach each generation requirement, and it is not something you immediately complete with just snapping your fingers.

This is why people should not be disappointed if others suggest ideas that it won't be a true 6th generation aircraft like particularly what the engine performance will be. It is a little difficult to get into the mindset that 2 new aircraft projects from China that look aerodynamically like 2 different stealth UAV projects are another generation from an F-22 or F-35 without giving us some kind of exclusive technology details that makes it one generation ahead. Usually if you claim you are one generation ahead you would have to give some details of why you believe you have the air to air or air to ground superiority that others don't have like do you have quantum radars or something? To me the aircraft doesn't have any new exclusive engine technology and if they did it will take a long while, and I already have a feeling the avionics and missiles will not be all that different from what the west produces or has. No one here even entertained the idea if it has a degree of stealth better than a F-22 or F-35. My current expectations for the aircraft just feel so underwhelming.
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For stealth, although no one can comment on the exact RCS but in my opinion, it is pretty safe to say it should at least have better all aspect stealth than any 5th gen flying today just by virtue of not having a vertical stabilizer. But honestly it is still too early to comment on stuff like this as we do not know basically anything about the plane aside from what we can see from a couple of blurry photos.
 
Even 5th gen fighters do not have a hard and fast definition. It seems a pointless to argue over.

I suspect that the PRC is behind in VCE development, given the issues it has had with engine development historically. But I suspect a VCE sized to replace WS-10/15 series is in the works. In the meantime I suspect the “J-36” will suffer a range reduction and little else. Given its size and likely fuel load, as well as the fact the PLAAF is not fighting with a significant range disadvantage, this probably is not very consequential.

The USAF on the other hand wants/wanted increased range to open up basing options outside the first chain, so VCE is more relevant to NGAD (or at least was before the pause).
 
2024-03-08

CN117669035 (A) - Fixed-wing aircraft wing internal structure parameterized grid drawing method
Inventor(s): WANG JIAYING; GUO ZIMING; HONG HAIMING +
Applicant(s): SHENYANG AIRCRAFT DESIGN & RES INST AVIC +
Classification:
- international: G06F30/15; G06F30/23; G06F119/14
- cooperative:
G06F30/15 (CN); G06F30/23 (CN); G06F2119/14 (CN); Y02T90/00 (EP)
Application number: CN202311656141 20231205
 

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Josh_TN said:
Even 5th gen fighters do not have a hard and fast definition. It seems a pointless to argue over.

I suspect that the PRC is behind in VCE development, given the issues it has had with engine development historically. But I suspect a VCE sized to replace WS-10/15 series is in the works. In the meantime I suspect the “J-36” will suffer a range reduction and little else. Given its size and likely fuel load, as well as the fact the PLAAF is not fighting with a significant range disadvantage, this probably is not very consequential.

The USAF on the other hand wants/wanted increased range to open up basing options outside the first chain, so VCE is more relevant to NGAD (or at least was before the pause).
Click to expand...
Not having VCE might also cause some issues with power generation and cooling, so it might not be able to utilize it's radar/EW gear and other equipment it may carry aboard to the fullest extent until it gets the new engines.
 
quellish said:
I would not say these were rumors or hints.

In 2015 the Department of Defense stated very publicly that they intended to build 2 different air dominance X-planes, one for the Navy and one for the Air Force.
In late 2020 the Air Force announced that the Air Force NGAD demonstrator had already been flying.
In June of 2021 a Senator stated he had seen "NGAD" in person earlier in the year.
Click to expand...
For sure they are real , and there is a classified Lockheed something in build we don't know nothing .
find on X
https://twitter.com/x/status/1874225517127491863
View: https://x.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1874225517127491863
 
Tomboy said:
For stealth, although no one can comment on the exact RCS but in my opinion, it is pretty safe to say it should at least have better all aspect stealth than any 5th gen flying today just by virtue of not having a vertical stabilizer. But honestly it is still too early to comment on stuff like this as we do not know basically anything about the plane aside from what we can see from a couple of blurry photos.
Click to expand...

The strange thing is that they removed the vertical tails.... but then doubled the number of conventional control surfaces on the wing. From an RF observables standpoint that does not make much sense.
 
Deino said:
I think no-one denies thsi and indeed there are several hints, the US have already flown maybe more than one demonstrator. The point is however: This is all based on rumours, some reports and we still lack a photographic evidence like we now have for both from SAC and CAC!

What I however find funny - or annoying in case you have to discuss with a hardcore US-supremacist like I did yesterday - it's really easy to dismiss both Chinese types as being NOT 6th generation fighters without giving a reason, while at the same time the US so far did not even provide any proof that they actually flew a prototype nor that their alleged prototypes meet the criteria of a 6th generation fighter!
Click to expand...
THANK YOU. It's "we're perfectly superior with no question" even when other countries do cutting edge things. The US has been behind/matched in things before, and it can happen again. It's the nature of competitive designs to best other countries.
 
dark sidius said:
For sure they are real , and there is a classified Lockheed something in build we don't know nothing .
Click to expand...
A classified Lockheed Martin "something" (as you say) doesn't say anything about whether LM is building NGAD (prototypes / demonstrators / whatever). LM Aeronautics does more than just building aircraft.
 
quellish said:
The strange thing is that they removed the vertical tails.... but then doubled the number of conventional control surfaces on the wing. From an RF observables standpoint that does not make much sense.
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I don't think the control surfaces will be that bad for RCS if they stay flushed with the wing although I am no expert on radars so don't quote me, besides from the pics it seems like they have made some kind of breakthrough in material technology given that they seem to be using some kind of flexible aircraft skin for all the control surfaces(ie. no noticeable gap between the end of the control surfaces and the wing, see pic below), so it is entirely possible they also made some kind of next gen RAM to go with it.


54227257657_3d73abe415_o.jpg
 
Tomboy said:
Not having VCE might also cause some issues with power generation and cooling, so it might not be able to utilize it's radar/EW gear and other equipment it may carry aboard to the fullest extent until it gets the new engines.
Click to expand...

There would be less cooling capacity, but short of some kind of DEW I cannot imagine the three engine arrangement is insufficient.
 
quellish said:
The strange thing is that they removed the vertical tails.... but then doubled the number of conventional control surfaces on the wing. From an RF observables standpoint that does not make much sense.
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Cannot some of the control surfaces be locked in less demanding flight regimes? I thought B-2 did this.
 
Josh_TN said:
Cannot some of the control surfaces be locked in less demanding flight regimes? I thought B-2 did this.
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To make it fly like a MiG-23? It seems less than ideal even if it's an interceptor (and I am not saying it is)
 
SK2 said:
To make it fly like a MiG-23? It seems less than ideal even if it's an interceptor (and I am not saying it is)
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Alot of modern aircrafts do this, for example J-20 and EF both limits the deflection of control surfaces and keep them in a position where it is optimal for lower RCS when maneuverability is not needed, ie. when cruising. So it makes sense this new aircraft will probably make use of this too.
 
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VTOLicious said:
Photogrammetry volunteers please step forward!

Alternatively... https://www.autodesk.com/asean/solutions/photogrammetry-software
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That software looks like a somewhat poor match for the task, since we lack photos of high resolution/proper zoom of the aircraft in all aspects, especially the top. My guess is you would end up with a grey potato as your model.

Autodesk has imagemodeler, but it sucks and requires an absurd time commitment. Other than just trying to brute force these things with math, I wonder what other programs are available?
 
quellish said:
The strange thing is that they removed the vertical tails.... but then doubled the number of conventional control surfaces on the wing. From an RF observables standpoint that does not make much sense.
Click to expand...
Systems engineering is the most difficult to get right. Maybe they can get the pieces but not the whole.
 
sf7pakistan said:
I think that the production jet will have to have the VCE engines. Otherwise it doesn't make sense as the on-board systems require too much power which I doubt that the WS-15 or any other conventional engine can generate
Click to expand...

We have no idea what the onboard systems are. We suspect there may be two cheek AESA arrays, but I would not have thought that beyond a three engine arrangement. I would assume that we are looking at significantly greater than 50% more power than J-20 with a pair of WS-10 just using three WS-15. As said above, hard to see how that would be inadequate unless some kind of laser was involved.
 
Tomboy said:
I'm pretty sure a few credible PLA watchers have said the final engines for the J-36s are going to be VCEs, but depending on how fast they get it into service there's a decent chance it'll be sporting some WS-15 variant at first.
Click to expand...

I'm assuming - and it is a significant assumption - that the design will use WS-15 for the first few years and a follow-on design may use VCEs... there are too many benefits to VCEs for China not to invest in developing them (and likely trying to produce one which can fit into existing airframe production lines) but it might take long enough to field that my prediction will happen first. :D
 

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