I know that this is a well trodden subject but I thought that it would be interesting to compare the plans with what happened in reality.
Ground Attack/Recce Squadrons
It was planned to replace the Hunter with the 1154 Harrier in 8 squadrons: 2 in the UK, 2 in Germany, 2 in the Gulf and 2 in the Far East. None of these squadrons would be in service before 1970. By 1965 the likely in service date was slipping towards 1972 or worse.
Following cancellation of 1154 this is what actually happened in the likely 1154 squadrons.
UK: 38 Group
1 Wittering 1127 Harrier 1968
41 Conningsby Phantom 1968
RAF Germany
2 Bruggen Phantom 1971
4 Wildenrath 1127 Harrier 1970
Gulf (in the UK in real life)
43 Phantom 1969
54 Phantom 1969
208 Buccaneer 1971
Far East
20 1127 Harrier 1972
This suggests that the RAF did well to cancel the risky 1154 and replace it with a combination of Phantoms and the more flexible 1127.
Light Bomber/ Interdictor/Recce
The allocation of TSR2 aircraft to replace Canberra squadrons on a basis of 1 for 2 and Valiant squadrons on a one for one basis is a much more fraught subject. By cancellation plans to base TSR2 overseas had been scrapped in favour of a UK based force which could be deployed like the V bombers as necessary.
UK Bomber Command
Events led to the three Valiant squadrons at Marham (49,148 and 207) being scrapped in 1965. They were replaced by the re-roleing of the Vulcan force from 1968. There is no evidence that the squadrons would have been resurrected as TSR2 units at Marham. Plans suggest that TSR2s were also intended to replace the Vulcan from 1972. However, this is only an assumption.
40 Squadron at Honington was to be resurrected from a disbanded Canberra squadron. Other disbanded Canberra squadrons that could have been revived were: 59 61 69 82 104 109 149 151 192 199 245 527 540 and 542. No evidence suggests that any of these were proposed but modelmakers have plenty of nice badges to choose from!
NEAF and FEAF
6 squadron at Akrotiri received Phantoms and returned to the UK.
9 and 35 squadrons with Vulcans assumed the role that TSR2 had been intended to fill.
45 squadron at Singapore might have received TSR2s or the later F-111. It was disbanded with the withdrawal from East of Suez.
RAF Germany Interdictor Force
In a sensible world this would have been the main purpose of the TSR2 force to replace the aged Canberra by the end of the 1960s. Instead the role was left unclear.
Only 2 1154 squadrons were planned for RAFG and they have been accounted for above. UK based TSR2s or later F111 squadrons would have been the logical choice but the numbers become problematic.
Reality gives clues as to why TSR2 was a dead end.
14 Bruggen Phantoms from 1970
16 Laarbruch Buccaneers from 1971
17 Bruggen Phantoms from 1970
31 Bruggen Phantoms from 1971
To which can be added the following re-roled UK squadrons
12 Honington Vulcans up to 1968. Then TSR2s/F111s? Buccaneer instead.
15 Marham then Bruggen Vulcans Then TSR2s/F111s. Buccaneers from 1970 moving to Germany.
Replacing the TSR2 with Phantoms and Buccaneers allowed the RAF to have disposed of its SACEUR assigned Canberras by 1971. Only an optimist would suggest that operational TSR2 squadrons could have been available in this period.
Moreover, TSR2 was a nuclear delivery platform and less capable in the conventional role than the Phantom, Buccaneer, Jaguar or Tornado.
Some of the above detail may not be quite right but it does show that by 1971 the RAF had a credible strike force which it might not have had if the riskier 1154 and TSR2 options had been followed.
