RAF 1990s

[JFC Fuller]

220 Tornado IDS; replacing 7 Squadrons (6 from 1981) of Vulcan B.2 (56 in total), 5 squadrons of Jaguar and 2 squadrons of RAF Germany Buccaneers: 11 squadrons planned as of 1985 of which 2 were to be recce. there was ultimately a try-national training unit and the TWCU.

165 Tornado ADV; replacing Lightning F.6 in 2 squadrons and Phantoms in 5 squadrons for UK Air Defence: 7 squadrons planned as of 1985, alongside an OCU (229)

60 Harrier GR5 to replace the 3 Harrier GR3 squadrons; a further 36 were ordered later to "maintain the Harrier GR5 force into the 21st Century". Harrier Squadrons varied between 12 (No.1 in the U.K., alongside 233 OCU) an 18 (Nos. 3 & 4 in RAF Germany) aircraft.

42 Buccaneer (60 is a number also used); Upgraded to carry Sea Eagle to serve well into the 90s and almost entirely dedicated to the AShM role - equipped 2 frontline squadrons (Nos. 12 & 208) plus 237 OCU which maintained its shadow squadron SACEUR role.

Worth noting that in the early 1980s there was an expansion of the UK based AD force from 7 squadrons to 9, this would consist of the 7 previously mentioned Tornado ADV squadrons and was facilitated by the retention of Phantoms. There were 72 Sidewinder equipped Hawks (90 had been the original target) though I am unclear as to how many shadow squadrons this equated too.

4 squadrons of Nimrod

The subsequent introduction of the Eurofighter:

250 Eurofighters replacing 75 Jaguar GR1A/T2A in Nos. 6, 54 & 41 squadrons and 237 OCU alongside the Phantoms in Nos. 56, 74 and 228 OCU (No.64 Shadow) squadrons in the UK. In RAF Germany Nos.92 & 19 Phantom squadrons would be replaced. It seems reasonable to assume that two squadrons of RAF Germany Tornado GR.1 squadrons would be redeployed to the UK as replacements for Nos. 12 & 208 Buccaneer anti-ship squadrons as happened in real life, in turn, these would be replaced with Eurofighters. Providing Eurofighters to replace the 4 aircraft in 1435 Flight in the Falklands would also be logical.

That is frontline 9 Squadrons and 1 flight, one also assumes an OCU for each type to be replaced by a single Eurofighter OCU, given that there were still shadow squadrons associated with the legacy OCUs its reasonable to assume there was an ambition to raise two additional frontline squadrons in place of the 2 redundant OCUs which would raise the total to 11. That would leave some airframes to facilitate some consoidation of the Tornado force, perhaps a replacement of 1 each of the fighter and ground attack squadrons.

Thats a potential frontline RAF fighter/attack frontline strength of 32 squadrons (or 33 12 UE squadron equivalents when accounting for Nos. 3 & 4 Harrier squadrons) and 1 flight.

 

[uk 75]

If the Cold War had continued beyond 1990 the Eurofighter would have been developed faster as Germany would not have been funding unification.
Assuming the Tornado GR and F2 force had remained the same as it had reached by 1990 the Typhoons would have replaced the 2 W Germany based F4 squadrons and the 3 UK based Jaguar squadrons.
The maritime strike Buccaneers were replaced in the real world by Tornados withdrawn from RAFG. Would extra Tornados have been ordered?
The sole F4J squadron (74?) would either have received F2 Tornados or Typhoons.
The Harrier GR5/7 etc would have replaced UK and RAFG Harrier GR3s.
A fuller uprgrade of Tornado than the GR4 might have happened. With no 1991 Kuwait war the problems of low level strikes with JP223 might not have emerged?
.

 

[Yellow Palace]

Despite being an old thread with a glacial pace, this one is still pretty useful.

Thats a potential frontline RAF fighter/attack frontline strength of 32 squadrons (or 33 12 UE squadron equivalents when accounting for Nos. 3 & 4 Harrier squadrons) and 1 flight.

The maths here doesn't work, though. Reiterating the numbers, and running down the list of RAF squadrons circa 1989, I get:

• 11 squadrons Tornado IDS
• 7 squadrons Tornado ADV
• 4 squadrons Phantom - 2 in the UK, 2 in Germany, to be replaced in due course by Eurofighter
• 3 squadrons Jaguar - to be replaced in due course by Eurofighter
• 2 squadrons Buccaneer - presumably to be replaced by Tornado IDS, with EFA cascaded in behind
• 3 squadrons Harrier

For a total of 30 squadrons, or 31 effectives.

It seems like there's some double counting in the initial post - most likely 56 Sqn and 74 Sqn in the UK AD role and as being replaced by Eurofighter.

However you slice it up, though, the UK was planning on buying far more Eurofighters than would be needed just to replace the Phantoms and Jaguars. There's potentially enough to completely replace the Tornado ADV, or to take over about half of the strike (Tornado IDS + Buccaneer) force. Or, being a bit naughty, to replace the Harriers and get out of the STOVL game entirely.

Which screws the Royal Navy over when the Sea Harrier FRS.2 (as it was called at the time) goes out of service. But for the RAF, that may be a feature, not a bug.

 

[Jason Dykstra (Wyvern)]

A fuller uprgrade of Tornado than the GR4 might have happened. With no 1991 Kuwait war the problems of low level strikes with JP223 might not have emerged?

Low-level strike was already on its way out at this point as the programs which would lead to Brimstone and Storm Shadow were in full swing at this point in time. JP233 would've likely been replaced by a Storm Shadow variant with a minelet package, or perhaps even by the CASMU Sky Shark.

There's potentially enough to completely replace the Tornado ADV, or to take over about half of the strike (Tornado IDS + Buccaneer) force.

This seems to be the most likely option. Perhaps the plan was to send Typhoons to Germany to replace some of the Tornado GR.1 squadrons there, with the aircraft cascaded over replacing the Buccaneers. It seems that this would have occurred after the replacement of the Jaguars and Phantoms, as the Buccaneers were being upgraded at this point to serve out to 1997, and perhaps even beyond, according to World Air Power Journal at least.

 

[Yellow Palace]

Low-level strike was already on its way out at this point as the programs which would lead to Brimstone and Storm Shadow were in full swing at this point in time. JP233 would've likely been replaced by a Storm Shadow variant with a minelet package, or perhaps even by the CASMU Sky Shark.

SR(A).1236, the original requirement for what became Storm Shadow didn't envisage a dispenser warhead - seemingly it was being considered that going directly after the aircraft was more effective than destroying runways. Interestingly, a nuclear warhead was considered, before that requirement turned into SR(A).1244, with a UK version of SRAM-T and its W91 warhead seemingly the preferred candidate. As far as Brimstone goes, it was actually one of two systems selected for further development in 1988. It took until 1996 to finally select it... from a field that had expanded back to five candidates!

I'd expect that some kind of Tornado F.3 upgrade would be on the cards, as discussed here in the context of Eurofighter being cancelled. There's reference in Hansard in 1991 to it not proceeding, which implies that at some prior date it was a live program.

This seems to be the most likely option. Perhaps the plan was to send Typhoons to Germany to replace some of the Tornado GR.1 squadrons there, with the aircraft cascaded over replacing the Buccaneers. It seems that this would have occurred after the replacement of the Jaguars and Phantoms, as the Buccaneers were being upgraded at this point to serve out to 1997, and perhaps even beyond, according to World Air Power Journal at least.

I think you definitely get the Typhoon - Tornado - Buccaneer cascade, which accounts for two squadrons. bringing the total to nine of Typhoons. There's still two to four squadrons worth of Typhoons looking for gainful employment.

I guess the question then becomes, what's looking more in need of replacement? OTL would suggest the Tornado F.3 is probably first on the chopping block, but Typhoon was really intended as a tactical fighter for Germany. The earlier AST.403 was aimed at replacing Jaguar and Harrier, and was expected to be complementary/overlapping Tornado GR.1, so my guess is either:

1. The RAF replaces 2-4 squadrons of Tornado F.3s with Typhoons. This doesn't affect the offensive air support role, but means losing some of the North Atlantic BARCAP capability as the Typhoon just doesn't have the same legs as the F.3. Avionics-wise, it may not be as big of a loss, especially depending on whether the F.3 sees any upgrades ITTL. SACLANT probably won't be happy about this. The 1993 discussions around potential Eurofighter cancellation F.3 upgrades and suggest this option.
2. The RAF keeps the Harrier around, and replaces 2-4 squadrons of Tornado GR.4s with Typhoons. This preserves the ability to disperse the force, but is probably less capable overall. There may also be a consideration of losing nuclear platforms - AFAIK the Typhoon wasn't considered as a carrier for the SR(A).1244 weapon, and this was a factor when looking at Buccaneer replacements.
3. The RAF scraps the Harrier, replacing it with 3-4 squadrons of Typhoons. This loses the STOVL capability, but the Typhoon is more capable once airborne. The training and logistics pipeline for the Harrier force can be disposed of, and the practical problems of supporting dispersed operations go away.

There isn't an obvious 'best' answer here. Flogging the extras to Saudi Arabia, as happened with the 72 extras from the 'final' RAF order for 232, is also possible.

Not discussed in the original post, but very much a live program, is also the Nimrod replacement. At varying points, this was the Nimrod Mid-Life Update (cancelled in 1990), the P-7 LRAACA (also cancelled in 1990), a paper plane bearing some resemblance to the A400M, and the SR(A).420 debacle. No obvious 'right' answer here either.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Part of Post 3.

The maths here doesn't work, though. Reiterating the numbers, and running down the list of RAF squadrons circa 1989, I get:

• 11 squadrons Tornado IDS
• 7 squadrons Tornado ADV
• 4 squadrons Phantom - 2 in the UK, 2 in Germany, to be replaced in due course by Eurofighter
• 3 squadrons Jaguar - to be replaced in due course by Eurofighter
• 2 squadrons Buccaneer - presumably to be replaced by Tornado IDS, with EFA cascaded in behind
• 3 squadrons Harrier

For a total of 30 squadrons, or 31 effectives.

If it helps my "RAF Squadrons 1970-1990" spreadsheet has a total of 68 numbered squadrons at 31st March 1990. That broke down into:

34 combat aircraft squadrons;​

12 transport squadrons;​

21 squadrons that I counted as second-line;​

And;​

One Bloodhound SAM squadron (No. 85).​

No. 25 Squadron the other Bloodhound squadron was disbanded at Wyton on 02.07.89,​

but it looks like it was absorbed by No. 85 Squadron, which doubled in size.​

The 34 combat squadrons comprised.

11 fighter squadrons​

4 Phantom (Nos. 19, 56, 74 & 92)​

7 Tornado (Nos. 5, 11, 23, 25, 29, 43 & 111)​

14 ground attack squadrons.​

3 Harrier (Nos. 1, 3 & 4)​

2 Jaguar (Nos. 6 & 54)​

9 Tornado (Nos. 9, 14, 15, 16, 17, 20, 27, 31 & 617)​

3 reconnaissance squadrons​

1 Jaguar (No. 41)​

2 Tornado (Nos. 2 & 13)​

2 Buccaneer maritime strike squadrons (Nos. 12 & 208)​

4 Nimrod maritime patrol squadrons (Nos. 42, 120, 201 & 206)​

The 21 squadrons that I counted as second-line squadrons included 8 reserve squadrons.

228 Operational Conversion Unit (No. 64) Phantoms​

229 Operational Conversion Unit (No. 65) Tornado ADV​

236 Operational Conversion Unit (No. 38) Nimrods​

Tornado Weapons Conversion Unit (No. 45) Tornado IDS​

4 within Nos. 1 & 2 Tactical Weapons Units (Nos 63, 79, 151 & 234) Hawk T.1A​

I can do the 12 transport squadrons and other 13 second-line squadrons if required.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Part of the Opening Post.

220 Tornado IDS; replacing 7 Squadrons (6 from 1981) of Vulcan B.2 (56 in total), 5 squadrons of Jaguar and 2 squadrons of RAF Germany Buccaneers: 11 squadrons planned as of 1985 of which 2 were to be recce. there was ultimately a try-national training unit and the TWCU.

165 Tornado ADV; replacing Lightning F.6 in 2 squadrons and Phantoms in 5 squadrons for UK Air Defence: 7 squadrons planned as of 1985, alongside an OCU (229).

For what it's worth.

The RAF received 229 Tornado IDS and 173 Tornado ADV. That is one pre-production IDS that was brought up to production standard, 228 production IDS, 165 ADV ordered for the RAF and the British Government took over the cancelled Omani order for 8 ADV.

The totals would have been increased to 255 Tornado IDS and 188 Tornado ADV if the eighth production batch for 26 IDS and 15 ADV hadn't been cancelled in 1990.

 

[MadRat]

RAF should have joined the AMX International program. Phase out Buccaneers for AMX and call them Hunter II. Use the ADENs rather than the DEFAs. The RAF could have used Blue Vixen on the nose; it was superior in pretty much any mode compared to what Italy and Brazil used. AMX was a good match for the finances and operational environments of the RAF. Tornado was great and all but the price kept the bulk of the fleet grounded most of the time.

Since this is phantasy lets SLEP the remaining three dozen F.6 Lightnings, swap the Avons for RB.199s, add a proper radar back end on the cheap, then add fuel tank-ASRAAM combinations over the wings and Skyflash on the chins. Maybe even put an IRST on the nose cone tip. Squeeze another ten to 15 year out of the airframes. It too would have been a good candidate for the Blue Vixen, which opened up the possible inclusion of AMRAAM and other smart weapons. Not particularly sexy compared to Typhoon but significantly cheaper for defending lesser bases like Aldergrove, Akrotiri, and Mount Pleasant.

 

[Yellow Palace]

If it helps my "RAF Squadrons 1970-1990" spreadsheet has a total of 68 numbered squadrons at 31st March 1990.

Very succinct, matches my understanding. Keeping the Reserve squadrons straight is always a bit of a headache! I've seen references to a fifth Hawk T.1A squadron but haven't nailed it down.

The totals would have been increased to 255 Tornado IDS and 188 Tornado ADV if the eighth production batch for 26 IDS and 15 ADV hadn't been cancelled in 1990.

That does open up the prospect of the Buccaneer replacements being additional squadrons of GR.1B (or maybe GR.4B), bringing the total to 13 Tornado squadrons.

Timeline-wise, the Tornado F.3 WSU (possibly Tornado F.5, given the precedent of Tornado GR.4 and Jaguar GR.3) would be expected in service from 1996. I'm now leaning toward the additional Typhoons going into the air defence role, given the desire for a more manoeuvrable fighter and the desire to maintain nuclear-capable aircraft for NATO missions.

That would wind up with a fighter force of eight Typhoon squadrons (two in Germany, six in the UK) and three Tornado WSU, of which at least two declared to SACEUR.

Since this is phantasy

Clearly. The actual procurement plans called for Tornados, Typhoons, and Harriers, supplemented by Hawks. Not for light attack aircraft and further life extension of obsolete 1950s fighters.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Part of Post 9.

Very succinct, matches my understanding. Keeping the Reserve squadrons straight is always a bit of a headache! I've seen references to a fifth Hawk T.1A squadron but haven't nailed it down.

This may solve the mystery.

I was going to write that the fifth Hawk T.1A squadron never existed and wasn't given a “number plate” if it ever did. Then I remembered a “Flight International” article from the late 1980s about the Red Arrows (part of the Central Flying School) saying that it was equipped with Hawk T.1As and that (in common with the T.1As in the TWUs) its wartime job would be point defence. There may have been a picture of one or two Hawks in Red Arrows colours armed with Sidewinder missiles on the front cover.

I didn't remember the above until I'd half-written this.

• 229 OCU (which was the Hunter OCU) became the Tactical Weapons Unit (TWU) on 02.09.74.
• It was split into Nos. 1 & 2 TWU on 31.07.78.
• No. 1 was a Brawdy & No. 2 was at Lossiemouth.
• No. 2 TWU was disbanded at Lossiemouth on 01.04.81.
• No. 2 TWU reformed the same day at Chivenor by re-designating an element of No. 1 TWU.
• Nos. 63, 79 & 234 Squadrons were part of the TWU/No. 1 TWU from its formation in 1974.
• There were no changes until 01.04.81 when No. 79 Squadron transferred to the newly reformed No. 2 TWU.
• No. 151 Squadron was reformed within No. 2 TWU on 01.09.81.
• Nos. 63 & 234 Squadrons remained part of No. 1 TWU until the end of the Cold War.
• Nos. 79 & 151 Squadrons remained part of No. 2 TWU until the end of the Cold War.

My original post didn't mention No. 1435 Flight with Phantoms in the Falkland Islands. It didn't mention the OCU's that weren't reserve squadrons either. They included 226 OCU (Jaguars), 233 OCU (Harriers) and 237 (OCU) Buccaneers. I think (but don't know) that they'd reinforce existing front-line squadrons instead of being mobilised as operational squadrons in their own right and that's why they didn't have squadron "number plates".

 

[Yellow Palace]

I think (but don't know) that they'd reinforce existing front-line squadrons instead of being mobilised as operational squadrons in their own right and that's why they didn't have squadron "number plates".

It's interesting to note that the Harrier and Jaguar OCUs supported a force of three squadrons each, and weren't expected to stand up as operational squadrons in wartime, while the Phantom and Nimrod OCUs supported four squadrons each, and would become operational squadrons. There's clearly a tipping point there where the OCU doesn't have the critical mass to operate in its own right.

For that matter, all the OCU numberplates went away fairly quickly in 1990-1993, which I imagine wouldn't happen in this (ill-defined) scenario

 

[Hood]

Until the early 1990s, the MoD refused requests for a shadow squadron numberplates unless a unit had a war role as an independent unit. Hence why the Harrier and Jaguar OCUs had to wait. By 1990 it was a case of preserving old numberplates in active roles.

In the case of 226 OCU, originally 20 Jaguars were to be declared to SACEUR as reinforcements, but ultimately this was reduced to just 9 GR.1s and 8 WE.177. The MoD had actually already ordered the war reserve weapons and so the surplus ordnance for 11 Jags was distributed to the Harrier squadrons. By 1990 this commitment was reduced to just 4 GR.1As as reinforcements for the Jaguar deployment to Tirstrup in Denmark, the remaining aircraft being allocated for local UK air defence.

 

[SSgtC]

I think you definitely get the Typhoon - Tornado - Buccaneer cascade, which accounts for two squadrons. bringing the total to nine of Typhoons. There's still two to four squadrons worth of Typhoons looking for gainful employment.

Maintenance and attrition reserve. As a general rule, and if you can afford it, you buy twice as many aircraft as you need. For example, even if the USN could have deployed all 14 Tomcat capable carriers at the same time, all with 2 squadrons of F-14s on board, they would still only have needed 366 airframes. The Navy bought almost 700 Tomcats. Not every bird you buy will go straight to a squadron. Most will be being cycled through repair depots, OCUs, and Reserve Squadrons while the rest are assigned to their respective front line units.

 

[Yellow Palace]

Maintenance and attrition reserve. As a general rule, and if you can afford it, you buy twice as many aircraft as you need. For example, even if the USN could have deployed all 14 Tomcat capable carriers at the same time, all with 2 squadrons of F-14s on board, they would still only have needed 366 airframes. The Navy bought almost 700 Tomcats. Not every bird you buy will go straight to a squadron. Most will be being cycled through repair depots, OCUs, and Reserve Squadrons while the rest are assigned to their respective front line units.

That's accounted for in my calculations - allowing for training, maintenance and attrition at the level the RAF allowed, 11 to 14 squadrons (but likely on the low end) of Typhoons must have been envisaged.

The ratio I use holds up pretty well for a range of aircraft types over multiple decades - up to the present day, in fact - I'd be very surprised if the Typhoon was an outlier.

 

[Jason Dykstra (Wyvern)]

Then I remembered a “Flight International” article from the late 1980s about the Red Arrows (part of the Central Flying School) saying that it was equipped with Hawk T.1As and that (in common with the T.1As in the TWUs) its wartime job would be point defence. There may have been a picture of one or two Hawks in Red Arrows colours armed with Sidewinder missiles on the front cover.

For reference, here's that specific photo of a Red Arrow Hawk T.1A with Sidewinders.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

For reference, here's that specific photo of a Red Arrow Hawk T.1A with Sidewinders.

Thank you. Was the rest of what I wrote more or less accurate?

 

[Hood]

Oddly, while there were four shadow squadrons, plus the Red Arrows from CFS, the original deployment plan was actually six 12-aircraft flights (Coningsby, Leeming, Leuchars, Wattisham, Lossiemouth and Scampton). Then in 1987 the Lossiemouth flight was relocated to Wildenrath in Germany as reinforcement for 2ATAF.
I suspect in reality the QFIs and QWIs would have been mixed up into pools, for example the Wildenrath flight required pilots who had prior RAFG tours.

 

[Yellow Palace]

Oddly, while there were four shadow squadrons, plus the Red Arrows from CFS, the original deployment plan was actually six 12-aircraft flights (Coningsby, Leeming, Leuchars, Wattisham, Lossiemouth and Scampton). Then in 1987 the Lossiemouth flight was relocated to Wildenrath in Germany as reinforcement for 2ATAF.

Given the desire to pin historic squadron identities on things, you'd have thought they'd have designated each of the flights as a shadow squadron.

Not discussed in the original post, but very much a live program, is also the Nimrod replacement. At varying points, this was the Nimrod Mid-Life Update (cancelled in 1990), the P-7 LRAACA (also cancelled in 1990), a paper plane bearing some resemblance to the A400M, and the SR(A).420 debacle. No obvious 'right' answer here either.

It's been pointed out in the Nimrod thread that the FLA-derived solution was recommended by British Aerospace, but that possibility was ruled out when the project didn't go ahead in 1994 as expected. The 'A400MPA' was expected to enter service circa 2005, requiring a modest Nimrod update to last that long... of course, the MR.2 made it to 2010 without updates, but it spent a significant amount of time post-2001 doing the overland ISTAR role.

The original RAF requirement was for 45 FLAs, which would be sufficient for five squadrons. This would replace all four Hercules squadrons (No.s 24, 30. 47 and 70), and I'm guessing would also replace the VC10 C.1s of No. 10 squadron. Likely timeline for this would be from 2004 at the earliest, so not strictly 1990s but really this thread is about the force plans of the 1980s.

There would be no C-17s or C-130Js in this scenario, though a small C-130J order might come along later for Special Forces work for which the A400M is too big.

The A400MPA would probably come along in the late 2000s - presumably development would lag the cargo version by a couple of years - with potentially as many as 35 required if the full complement of four squadrons plus the OCU were to be retained.

 

[Jason Dykstra (Wyvern)]

Thank you. Was the rest of what I wrote more or less accurate?

Yes

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Post 17 in full

Oddly, while there were four shadow squadrons, plus the Red Arrows from CFS, the original deployment plan was actually six 12-aircraft flights (Coningsby, Leeming, Leuchars, Wattisham, Lossiemouth and Scampton). Then in 1987 the Lossiemouth flight was relocated to Wildenrath in Germany as reinforcement for 2ATAF.
I suspect in reality the QFIs and QWIs would have been mixed up into pools, for example the Wildenrath flight required pilots who had prior RAFG tours.

Is flights a typo for squadrons? 12 aircraft is too many aircraft for a flight to me.

I've got my copy of Lake out. The entry on the Central Flying School starts at the bottom of Page 44 and ends half way down the first column of Page 46. On Page 46 it says . . .

The Hawk Squadron replaced the Gnat Squadron in November 1976 at Valley.

And . . .

The Hawk Squadron became 19 (Reserve) Squadron at Valley withing 4 Flying Training School.

It doesn't give a date but the entry on 19 Squadron which straddles Pages 197 and 198 says . . .

Reformed 23rd September 1992 at Chivenor as 19 (Reserve) Squadron by renumbering 63 (Reserve) Squadron, being an element of 7 Flying Training School. the nameplate was then transferred to the Central Flying School Squadron within 4 Flying Training School from 1st October 1994.

Maybe this was the sixth Hawk T.1A squadron/flight. @Jason Dykstra (Wyvern) does your copy of the Flight International article confirm this?

The Wikipedia entry on the Red Arrows says . . .

When RAF Scampton (near Lincoln) became the CFS headquarters in 1983, the Red Arrows moved there. As an economy measure, Scampton closed in 1995, so the Red Arrows moved 20 miles (32 km) to RAF Cranwell; however, as they still used the air space above Scampton, the emergency facilities and runways had to be maintained. On 21 December 2000, the Red Arrows returned to RAF Scampton.[8] On 13 October 2022, the Red Arrows moved to their new base at RAF Waddington.

So it looks like The Red Arrows were the Scampton squadron/flight.

However, why the Hawk Squadron and Red Arrows weren't given reserve squadron number plates remains a mystery.

Part of the Opening Post.

Worth noting that in the early 1980s there was an expansion of the UK based AD force from 7 squadrons to 9, this would consist of the 7 previously mentioned Tornado ADV squadrons and was facilitated by the retention of Phantoms. There were 72 Sidewinder equipped Hawks (90 had been the original target) though I am unclear as to how many shadow squadrons this equated too.

6 flights/squadrons of 12 aircraft = 72 aircraft and 72 Hawks were modified to T.1A standard.

My copy of the Observer's Book of Aircraft 1981 Edition says . . .

Single pre-production example flown August 21, 1974, first production example flown May 19, 1975, and some 150 delivered beginning 1981 against RAF orders for 175 (with a repeat order for 18 pending).

And. . .

At the beginning of 1981, it was anticipated that kits would be procured to covert approximately half the RAF's Hawks to carry a pair of AIM-9 Sidewinder AAMs on the inboard wing pylons so that the aircraft can supplement the United Kingdom's defence force in an emergency, flying from operational bases and piloted by weapons instructors.

175 + 18 = 193 and half of 193 is 96½. Except that the repeat order for 18 aircraft didn't materialise so only 175 production Hawk T.1s were built and half of 175 is 87½ which rounds up to 90.

However, by the time we get to the 1984 edition (I don't have 1982 & 1983) the number of Hawks being modified to carry two Sidewinder AAMs had been reduced to 72.

 

[MadRat]

For reference, here's that specific photo of a Red Arrow Hawk T.1A with Sidewinders.

AMX looks so much nicer. Efficient Spey power versus overweight Adour.

If RAF operated them it made sense for a dry thrust EJ200-based version. AMX would have been RAFs F-16 equivalent, which is more or less pretty reflective of the financial realities between it and say, the USAF.

 

[Yellow Palace]

Some further musings on the RAF's tanker/transport force. Through the late 1980s, this comprised:

• 4 tactical transport squadrons with Hercules C.1/C.3 ( Nos. 24, 300, 47, 70)
• 1 strategic transport squadron with VC10 C.1 (No. 10)
• 1 tanker/transport squadron with Tristar K.1/KC.1/C.2/C.2A (No. 216)
• 2 tanker squadrons
  • Initially 2 Victor (Nos. 55, 57)
  • By 1989, 1 Victor (No. 55) and 1 VC10 K.2/K.3 (No. 101)

In the 1990s, the VC10s of No. 10 squadron were upgraded to be capable of air refuelling as well as transport. Sufficient VC10s were held in storage for conversion to K.4 standard to equip a third squadron; I wonder if this might have been done to replace 55 Squadron's Victors if there had been no force downsizing.

I remain unsure whether the planned FLA (A400M) purchase of 45 aircraft would equip four or five squadrons. My current leaning is for just four, of 8 aircraft each. That seems to match the Hercules force structure better. In that case, the 1990s objective force may be:

• 4 squadrons A400M
• 2-3 squadrons VC10
  • 2 squadrons capable of tanker role
  • Possibly 1 squadron of pure transports
• 1 squadron Tristar tanker/transport

It's possible, depending on world events, that a requirement for a C-17 strategic freighter force is established in the late 1990s. But it's not certain.

If RAF operated them it made sense for a dry thrust EJ200-based version. AMX would have been RAFs F-16 equivalent, which is more or less pretty reflective of the financial realities between it and say, the USAF.

It was ten years too late (and probably 50% too big) to be the RAF's advanced trainer, and totally unsuited to the RAF's requirements for a front-line combat aircraft.

 

[Jason Dykstra (Wyvern)]

In the event of an extended Cold War, would the RAF have remained a nuclear force?

 

[MadRat]

It was ten years too late (and probably 50% too big) to be the RAF's advanced trainer, and totally unsuited to the RAF's requirements for a front-line combat aircraft.

I'm not so sure it was the latter. The design consortium did consider the very model I suggested as a transonic version. RAF was budget constrained and AMX performed vast majority of missions that the RAF carried out. The AMX was also highly survivable and open to customizations.

 

[Grey Havoc]

It's possible, depending on world events, that a requirement for a C-17 strategic freighter force is established in the late 1990s. But it's not certain.

Though this might have helped to tip the balance in favour of such a move:

Version of the C-17 with Rolls-Royce RB211-535 turbofans. (h/t fightingirish)

 

[Yellow Palace]

In the event of an extended Cold War, would the RAF have remained a nuclear force?

Almost certainly. SR(A).1244 was for a nuclear-armed tactical air-to-surface missile, and the preferred candidate was the Boeing SRAM-T with a UK warhead and firing set based on the W91.

I'm not so sure it was the latter. The design consortium did consider the very model I suggested as a transonic version. RAF was budget constrained and AMX performed vast majority of missions that the RAF carried out. The AMX was also highly survivable and open to customizations.

In the 1970s, as part of the AST.396 tender, the RAF dismissed an aircraft in the class of the AMX as insufficiently capable to meet their requirements for ground attack. They then added air superiority to the requirement set. The result was Typhoon.

There was no formal stated requirement for a subsonic light attack aircraft other than Harrier, which had the STOVL gimmick. Whatever the virtues of the AMX, the RAF would not be buying it as part of a 1990s force structure.

 

[A Tentative Fleet Plan]

Almost certainly. SR(A).1244 was for a nuclear-armed tactical air-to-surface missile, and the preferred candidate was the Boeing SRAM-T with a UK warhead and firing set based on the W91.

The British TD.127 warhead intended for SR(A).1244 was based on the WE 177 warhead.

 

[Yellow Palace]

The British TD.127 warhead intended for SR(A).1244 was based on the WE 177 warhead.

The preferred option was a UK physics package, described has having a 'close relationship' with the W91, incorporating some of its subsystems and electronics, described here:

https://www.york.ac.uk/media/politics/documents/yorkindproject/2024%20Report3%20Ritchie%20&%20Walker%20Denuclearising%20the%20RAF.pdf

Obvious pro-disarmament bias in the report, but it contains far and away the best history of the TASM program that I've seen. Production of the warhead was projected to take place from 1998 to 2001 after three proof tests (March 1995, September 1996 and September 1997) which gives a pretty good indication of the expected in-service dates.

Of the candidate missiles, SRAM-T was the preferred option, despite comparatively short range, but was cancelled by the US before downselect took place. The warhead wasn't compatible with ASLP, which would also be too late (2003-2005) into service. So by cancellation, the ASALM-derived option (TIRRM) was the only viable candidate.

 

[A Tentative Fleet Plan]

The preferred option was a UK physics package, described has having a 'close relationship' with the W91, incorporating some of its subsystems and electronics, described here:

https://www.york.ac.uk/media/politics/documents/yorkindproject/2024%20Report3%20Ritchie%20&%20Walker%20Denuclearising%20the%20RAF.pdf

I've checked Brian Burnell's site, I was wrong about the replacement warhead being based on WE.177, but he is of the view that the UK WE.177 replacement warheads would have been based upon UK designs for miniaturised warheads, including Enhanced Radiation Warheads, that were tested in Nevada in the late 1970s. I note the paper you've provided describes a UK designed warhead as the Prime Option.

 

[Yellow Palace]

I've checked Brian Burnell's site, I was wrong about the replacement warhead being based on WE.177, but he is of the view that the UK WE.177 replacement warheads would have been based upon UK designs for miniaturised warheads, including Enhanced Radiation Warheads, that were tested in Nevada in the late 1970s. I note the paper you've provided describes a UK designed warhead as the Prime Option.

Yep, it's unclear from that paper how much heritage the new warhead would have from WE.177 and/or W91, and how much would be clean sheet.