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It's not like they're invisible on radar. They fly high, so easy to detect.
Tom Cooper point of view: while the Ukrainians may have shot down two Zircons, this is not exactly good news for a host of reasons. The missiles came like bats outta hell; with absolutely zero warning.
Just two sonic booms in terminal descent and then KABOOM.
Kiyv was spared only because other places were hit by a volley of Zircons and warned the capital: which had barely enough time to point and launch Patriots.
So this was a "lucky" shot - as far as "warning" was concerned.
What do you expect? There are many "experts" still thinking that all modern tech of China and Russia is "stolen from America".Level of expertise of people still illustrating their Zircon writings with X-51A alike stuff in 2024 is frustrating
They aren't invisible, but they fly very fast and follow aerodynamic, not ballistic trajectory. Which means that they are harder to detect than ballistics (the trajectory is lower) and they cross the radar range very fast, leaving operators little time to react.It's not like they're invisible on radar. They fly high, so easy to detect.
Right, but they're still 70+kft/25+km in altitude, not down in the weeds at 5m AGL. Blackbird height. Blatantly obvious that something's there.They aren't invisible, but they fly very fast and follow aerodynamic, not ballistic trajectory. Which means that they are harder to detect than ballistics (the trajectory is lower) and they cross the radar range very fast, leaving operators little time to react.
Of course. But still harder to detect that ballistics - and less reaction time.Right, but they're still 70+kft/25+km in altitude, not down in the weeds at 5m AGL. Blackbird height. Blatantly obvious that something's there.
Well, there is no such thing as wunderwaffe) Still, Zirkon is a very potent weapon system, capable of causing serious troubles to even most modern air defenses.The only thing making Tsirkon difficult to intercept at all is their sheer speed. Little warning time to get any SAMs warmed up and ready before the hypersonic goes into the terminal dive.
Not trying to be denier or fanboying. But the first pict is more like rolled carpets to me. If it Zircon insulation, they really eat alot of internal space.Another unstoppable missile gets stopped. Two in fact. This is the second use of the missile and the first shootdown AFAIK.
View: https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1772259027327610971?s=20
See conversation at link, it's to do with how the missile body is spun.Not trying to be denier or fanboying. But the first pict is more like rolled carpets to me. If it Zircon insulation, they really eat alot of internal space.
The "only thing" complicating the interception is physics...The only thing making Tsirkon difficult to intercept at all is their sheer speed. Little warning time to get any SAMs warmed up and ready before the hypersonic goes into the terminal dive.
Level of expertise of people still illustrating their Zircon writings with X-51A alike stuff in 2024 is frustrating.
What do you expect? There are many "experts" still thinking that all modern tech of China and Russia is "stolen from America".
Right, but they're still 70+kft/25+km in altitude, not down in the weeds at 5m AGL. Blackbird height. Blatantly obvious that something's there.
The only thing making Tsirkon difficult to intercept at all is their sheer speed. Little warning time to get any SAMs warmed up and ready before the hypersonic goes into the terminal dive.
There was a Kh-22 intercepted recently (see below).MoD confirms the (to my knowledge) first operational use of the Tsirkon in their report of combat activities for the period between 23-30th March
It would add to the seriousness of the site if people stop idle speculation based on "Ghost of Kiev" level of evidence. Specially when the very Ukrainian side admits they are not even able to intercept much easier targets like Kh-22/32 or the recent filmed destruction of Patriot launchers by the "simple" Iskanders.
The "only thing" complicating the interception is physics...
Crater reminds me of this. (Still don't know what munition is being tested here.)There was a Kh-22 intercepted recently (see below).
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M9ZkQVD4tA
It depends where they are sent though, not all areas have Patriot coverage, or even SAM coverage for that matter (it's one of Ukraine's current requests). Kyiv is the only well defended area and 95% of missiles/drones sent there end up shot down including Kinzhals and Zircons. Kh-22s hit a shopping mall in Kyiv pre-Patriot, but since Patriot Kh-22s seem to have been directed elsewhere. If Kh-22s would work, they wouldn't use Zircons on Kyiv.
Have any more Kinzhals and Zircons got through on target than Storm Shadows if we're being honest? Yes Zircon is faster, but it's large and unstealthy and its flight altitude of 28km means it can be seen coming 600-700km away, so even at 3km/s, the warning time is 3-4 minutes for a radar at 10m height. For a Storm Shadow at 200ft, the detection range for the same radar is 40km, assuming the ground clutter and general LO geometry of the Storm Shadow doesn't fox it. So even at a lowly Mach 0.9, the maximum warning time is around 2 minutes or less, and it generally ends up being the crapper SAMs trying to intercept it at that altitude too.
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Frankly, it looks like a spent SAM booster.Not trying to be denier or fanboying. But the first pict is more like rolled carpets to me. If it Zircon insulation, they really eat alot of internal space.
Nope, just timing. You can detect that beast from long range, well over 500km.The "only thing" complicating the interception is physics...
Thats a meme.Mach 9 isn't fast enough to get into reentry radio blackout conditions aka plasma stealth
No issue creating a targeting solution, having the speed for the interceptor to reach that point in time and do it with the required kinematic reserve to cover for target maneouvering? Have you considered the deviation a target flying 3 km/s can generate, from the moment you feed the targeting solution to your interceptor, until the moment the interceptor reaches it? I will wait for the US to develop one of those hypersonic weapons and check if your opinion about the triviality of their interception remains the same.Nope, just timing. You can detect that beast from long range, well over 500km.
Mach 9 isn't fast enough to get into reentry radio blackout conditions aka plasma stealth.
Mach 9 is 3km/sec, so detection at 480km means 160 seconds from detection to impact. Detection at 600km means 200 seconds to impact.
The limited time between detection and impact means that whichever defensive missile(s) are used to intercept need to be based very close to the target, IIRC within 10km.
The good news is that it won't take much damage to the hypersonic missile to make it destroy itself from friction and tumbling.
Plasma absorbs radiation below its own frequency, and that depends on many factors like flight speed, geometry of the missile's body and elements present (i.e. from ablative materials), not to talk about eventual active management techniques. And of course the accuracy of these weapons bely your claim about them being blind to any kind of onboard sensing or remote guidance. It is not by chance that these weapons are only now starting to be operational, and then, only by some countries. Again, I will wait for US to get them to read more of your unbiased opinions.Thats a meme.
A legit meme.
Feel free to delete any of the above, if you think it is not related to the Tsirkon (challenges to AD against hypersonics fits well to me, but maybe I am too simple). I just hope you delete the posts that generated my response, too.This thread is meant to discuss the 3M22 Tsirkon Missile, not general things, that happen in the war
in the Ukraine, or elsewhere.
So, please, stay to the original topic and don't hijack this thread !
You mean like Pershing 2?No issue creating a targeting solution, having the speed for the interceptor to reach that point in time and do it with the required kinematic reserve to cover for target maneouvering? Have you considered the deviation a target flying 3 km/s can generate, from the moment you feed the targeting solution to your interceptor, until the moment the interceptor reaches it? I will wait for the US to develop one of those hypersonic weapons and check if your opinion about the triviality of their interception remains the same.
28km is stated as the altitude. That is not high enough for plasma stealth.No issue creating a targeting solution, having the speed for the interceptor to reach that point in time and do it with the required kinematic reserve to cover for target maneouvering? Have you considered the deviation a target flying 3 km/s can generate, from the moment you feed the targeting solution to your interceptor, until the moment the interceptor reaches it? I will wait for the US to develop one of those hypersonic weapons and check if your opinion about the triviality of their interception remains the same.
9M is not reentry speed, but it indeed can create a plasma sheath
One little - actually, pretty big - problem. Calculation of interception point. The velocity of air-breathing hypersonic missile is not constant. And while it is not very agile, it could still maneuver a bit. And even the slight velocity/course changes could threw your calculated interception point off.Mach 9 is 3km/sec, so detection at 480km means 160 seconds from detection to impact. Detection at 600km means 200 seconds to impact.
Its air-breathing missile. It could regain velocity after each maneuver. And velocity change would actually add problems to interceptor, since it would be forced to recalculate the whole sequence in 3D, having only approximate data about missile velocity.As regards manoeuvring, the missile needs to know when to manoeuvre, which it doesn't, and every manoeuvre causes it to slow down.
Its air-breathing missile. It could regain velocity after each maneuver. And velocity change would actually add problems to interceptor, since it would be forced to recalculate the whole sequence in 3D, having only approximate data about missile velocity.
If we take the first missile on missile intercept as Patriot vs Scud/al Hussayn in 1991, then missile speeds have increased from 1.5km/s to 2.7km/s. Call it doubled.
At that point it will be rapidly approaching the target area and is limited in its manoeuvres by the need to hit the actual target. Additionally interceptors would be coming thick and fast, with the second one coming as soon as (and if) it dodges the first, so there would be no time to regain speed. Plus, at Mach 10, turns have large radii, speed drops off fast when manoeuvring, and it can't be regained very quickly either. And as the missile enters thicker air while descending on target, it will slow down even more. The ground radar and missile radar will be able to provide accurate velocity and range information at all times, and as I said, there is no pilot, it does not know when to manoeuvre, it can only guess. If it guesses wrong then it will be no more difficult than a BM to intercept.Its air-breathing missile. It could regain velocity after each maneuver. And velocity change would actually add problems to interceptor, since it would be forced to recalculate the whole sequence in 3D, having only approximate data about missile velocity.
The clock speed belies the real increase in performance. In 1991 processors were 32bit and single core with no hyper-threading.In the same time processor speed has increased from c10MHz to c5000MHz, so a 500 fold improvement. I'm not convinced recalculation is a major issue.
Only if it's already on the terminal run. Before that, it could change course rather efficiently, throwing the launched SAM's off-course.At that point it will be rapidly approaching the target area and is limited in its manoeuvres by the need to hit the actual target.
Which is actually good in terms of throwing off the interception calculations, because reducing the velocity made the missile course even less predictable.Plus, at Mach 10, turns have large radii, speed drops off fast when manoeuvring, and it can't be regained very quickly either.
First of all, it may simply be programmed to make random turns at random points of trajectory. Secondly, nothing forbade missile from actually carrying onboard illumination warning station. We are talking about heavy Russian missiles, after all; our missiles used penetration aids and jammers since 1970s!and as I said, there is no pilot, it does not know when to manoeuvre, it can only guess.
True enough, IF it manoeuvres at the correct time, but that doesn't really provide any advantage over a traditional BM in the case of Patriot, since Patriot can only perform endospheric intercepts.Only if it's already on the terminal run. Before that, it could change course rather efficiently, throwing the launched SAM's off-course.
Nope. The radar constantly monitors velocity and position, this is ultimately nothing that doesn't happen when intercepting an aircraft, except a good pilot knows when to manoeuvre.Which is actually good in terms of throwing off the interception calculations, because reducing the velocity made the missile course even less predictable.
Random turns may or may not be effective and will reduce range, limiting the quantity thereof.First of all, it may simply be programmed to make random turns at random points of trajectory.
Extra weight and in the terminal phase, which is really the case against PAC-3, the manoeuvres are limited by the need to hit the target. I also suspect decoys would decelerate very fast and thus be fairly ineffective and easily distinguished from the missile. Also, zero reports of decoys on Tsirkons to date.Secondly, nothing forbade missile from actually carrying onboard illumination warning station. We are talking about heavy Russian missiles, after all; our missiles used penetration aids and jammers since 1970s!
Those are the US hypersonic weapons? Ok then, no more questions...You mean like Pershing 2?
SM6Blk2 in the surface attack mode is also hypersonic. (that's the 21" rockets, not the 13.5" rockets)
You need to guess or know what is the target of the attacking weapon, to start with, to work out possible interception points that do not deviate massively from the engagement zone of your interceptors, once the missile starts vigorous maneouvering before it hits. And of course 1, 10 or 100 km distance between launchers depends on the relative performance of target and SAM system. Most SAMs are simply surpassed by current hypersonic weapons, no matter under what beneficial circumstances.The difficulty with intercepting hypersonics is how close the interceptor needs to be based to the target in order to get in front of the incoming to make the hit. Like I said, something like 10km away from the target(s) or less. This means you need lots more SAMs to be able to cover all the potential targets.
Still, those exotics were (and are still) developed under the extreme demands placed by some attack systems, I wonder why. As to the first part, we will agree to disagree.We are watching Patriots do this right now, it's not hard to make the intercepts with relatively normal missiles. Not talking exotics like Sprint or HyBEx that pull over 100gees at launch.
It indeed is. "Plasma stealth" is not an on-off type of phenomenon, the density and frequency of the plasma depends on a number of factors as stated above and can therefore be tailored within certain limits.28km is stated as the altitude. That is not high enough for plasma stealth.
Your interpretation is denied by any use of rocket artillery and missile forces basically anywhere in this world in the last 30 years. When you create several km wide, 3D deviation from original interception point with every slight manouver and have an air breathing weapon which is constantly propelled up to the target to hypersonic speed, it is basically a chance in 1 million that you are going to make an interception the way you propose.As regards manoeuvring, the missile needs to know when to manoeuvre, which it doesn't, and every manoeuvre causes it to slow down. It might dodge one interceptor, but then there's another.
Some examples come to mind...The correct way to deal with it in the general case would be to destroy the launch vehicles
I refuse having to explain something so obvious, sorry. I dont know if there is any free online interception calculator, but if you make some numbers you will see how difficult it is in reality. Not to talk about the ability of some of these weapons to be ultimative bunker busters, due to kinematic energy only.Salvo attacks with subsonic missiles are also effective though, and cheaper. The main advantage of hypersonic weapons is time sensitive targets more than difficulty of interception, especially when you factor in costs. If you can fire 5-10 subsonic cruise missiles at low altitude, or 10 PrSMs for every one Tsirkon, which causes air defences more problems?
I am not sure it is not agile, at least in terms of g, they can be subjected to extreme loads. But you are right, the scale of the kinematic challenge placed by such weapons and the speed an interceptor needs to have to have any chance to react to the attacking missile's changes of trajectory are apparently not understood here.One little - actually, pretty big - problem. Calculation of interception point. The velocity of air-breathing hypersonic missile is not constant. And while it is not very agile, it could still maneuver a bit. And even the slight velocity/course changes could threw your calculated interception point off.
It's not the recalculation time, it's the physical time to get the missile to the new intercept point. If it can get there, even.If we take the first missile on missile intercept as Patriot vs Scud/al Hussayn in 1991, then missile speeds have increased from 1.5km/s to 2.7km/s. Call it doubled.
In the same time processor speed has increased from c10MHz to c5000MHz, so a 500 fold improvement. I'm not convinced recalculation is a major issue.
Yes. But the flip side is that your hypersonic cannot maneuver easily without taking itself out of the target zone... grrr... there's got to be a better way to say that. I mean that the hypersonics cannot maneuver a whole lot without eliminating some targets as possibilities, simply because the hypersonic cannot maneuver back to hit them.You need to guess or know what is the target of the attacking weapon, to start with, to work out possible interception points that do not deviate massively from the engagement zone of your interceptors, once the missile starts vigorous maneouvering before it hits. And of course 1, 10 or 100 km distance between launchers depends on the relative performance of target and SAM system. Most SAMs are simply surpassed by current hypersonic weapons, no matter under what beneficial circumstances.
Yes. Sprint and HyBEx were designed to deal with ICBMs, which by nature of the beast are moving somewhere around Mach 20, not too far short of orbital velocity.Still, those exotics were (and are still) developed under the extreme demands placed by some attack systems, I wonder why. As to the first part, we will agree to disagree.
Agreed, I was only addressing the recalculation time itself, though the ability to calculate a continuously running intercept solution will help - it's not: oh shit they changed course, just give me 5 seconds to work out where they're going, okay, now we can react.It's not the recalculation time, it's the physical time to get the missile to the new intercept point. If it can get there, even.
the flip side is that your hypersonic cannot maneuver easily without taking itself out of the target zone... grrr... there's got to be a better way to say that.
A good analogy is a baseball pitcher throwing a fastball. The catcher doesn't need to move his mitt anywhere near as fast as the ball to catch it.Agreed, I was only addressing the recalculation time itself, though the ability to calculate a continuously running intercept solution will help - it's not: oh shit they changed course, just give me 5 seconds to work out where they're going, okay, now we can react.
The actual target constrains the range (set) of possible evasive manouevres. The incoming missile's course is literally funnelled into it.
So you can eliminate targets based on what maneuvers the hypersonic makes, as it removes that possible target from the funnel.The actual target constrains the range (set) of possible evasive manouevres. The incoming missile's course is literally funnelled into it.
I am not able to find it now, but I have seen some very fancy attack trajectories by hypersonic warheads, literally looping around the target before impacting. But I understand what you mean and obviously point defence is the optimum situation for the AD. That does not mean that you can hit a manoeuvring hypersonic weapon just by lobbing interceptors at it, as some appear to assume.Yes. But the flip side is that your hypersonic cannot maneuver easily without taking itself out of the target zone... grrr... there's got to be a better way to say that. I mean that the hypersonics cannot maneuver a whole lot without eliminating some targets as possibilities, simply because the hypersonic cannot maneuver back to hit them.
"Looping around the target" might be a bit of an exaggeration. Missiles going that fast don't "loop". This is what a maneuvering RV looks like trying to evade a PAC-3:I am not able to find it now, but I have seen some very fancy attack trajectories by hypersonic warheads, literally looping around the target before impacting. But I understand what you mean and obviously point defence is the optimum situation for the AD. That does not mean that you can hit a manoeuvring hypersonic weapon just by lobbing interceptors at it, as some appear to assume.