Long term effects of an F-104 scandal

[Lascaris]

Our point of divergence is simple, Lockheed tries to bribe the wrong person in the late 1950s and things snowball from there with the whole bribes affair coming out before F-104 gets actually sold. F-104G sales sink without trace while even people actually bribed are accusing Lockheed of trying to bribe them to save their skin. As an immediate effect Grumman gets most of the contracts for its Super Tiger with a lesser number of countries (lets say Italy and Belgium) buying Mirage instead. Lockheed is obviously way worse financially and Grumman much better but let us move a few years ahead.

The next big contract in the US was that for TFX and there McNamara chose General Dynamics over Boeing on grounds of commonality despite Boeing having come first. But TTL we have had already a major scandal of international proportions with F-104. Choosing General Dynamics over Boeing is politically way more difficult to put it mildly. So arguably we see Boeing getting good the TFX contract. And then what? I presume that the Boeing TFX may have suffered fewer development issues at least as far as the air force variant went but the navy variant wouldn't be that likely to come off, leading again to F-14, but is this affected by Grumman having experience and feedback from the production of over a 1000 modern fighters in the previous years? MIghtfield for example the use of TF30 be avoided? And would *F-14 be a contender for the USAF F-X program (probably but then chances are the air force would be doing what it could to avoid this...)

Which brings us to the last two possible divergences. First if GD has no experience in building a modern combat aircraft and Boeing has, it seems to me reasonable that Boeing 908 is chosen over the GD design for LWF thus we probably end up with a Boeing F-16 as well. But at the same time with Boeing having won TFX and having its hands full with it it also seems reasonable for Lockheed L2000 to win the SST competition... and being a simpler design actually fly.

Thoughts?

 

[GTX]

Lots of what ifs there...

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Yep you can pretty much do infinite scenarios from this starting point. Missing F-104 sales going to Dassault, Saunders-Roe or Hawker could dramatically alter history, but you can’t go too far from the divergence point without wild speculation.

 

[GTX]

Some fictional art of what could have been under your initial idea:

 

[Archibald]

Another divergence might happens later, in the early 70's, with more bribery scandals exploding earlier.

It just blow my mind to think, that in 1971 Lockheed was refloated with U.S government PUBLIC money (unbelievable) only for the bribery scandal to explode in 1976.

I can really imagine Nixon face (as if Watergate was not enough !) "I saved Lockheed, I loaned them money, and those ass...les spend it corrupting half of our NATO allies and beyond. Italy, Belgium, The Netherlands, Japan... so many countries. Geez." Incidentally Lockheed was pretty lucky to get stealth (Have Blue and F-117) to save their souls.

The F-11F "Super tiger" was a flying wonder, not a vicious brute like the F-104. Another sleek machine that never got a chance was the F-5D Skylancer.

 

[Lascaris]

Yep you can pretty much do infinite scenarios from this starting point. Missing F-104 sales going to Dassault, Saunders-Roe or Hawker could dramatically alter history, but you can’t go too far from the divergence point without wild speculation.

The further you go from the point of divergence the more butterflies you get of course. But still we can get some reasonable extrapolarations. For example do Saudis Roe and Hawker really get affected? Hawker has no actual aircraft to offer, I doubt anyone will be willing to buy P.1121 with it existing only on paper. For Saunders Roe I remain leery at any mixed propulsion aircraft getting mass produced. ..

 

[kaiserd]

I like a juicy “what-if” as much as the next guy...
In this case I would wonder if there really was a particularly strong and realistic alternative to the F-104 waiting in the wings.
The actual strongest/ most logical alternative would probably been a version of the Mirage IIIE however the Germans wanted/ needed the aircraft covered by US MAP military aid so that may rule out anything non-American.
And given the really too-challenging requirement (high altitude interceptor fighter plus low level nuclear strike, recon, etc.. which was probably beyond anything of the time apart from the F-4 which they ended up buying later but couldn’t / wouldn’t choose at the time of this decision due to cost) then many of the alternatives were probably always non-starters (for example all the British alternatives were dedicated interceptors or unwanted private exercises) or were likely to be pushed past what their airframes were really suited to (like to some extent the F-104G airframe was).
Despite my affection for their designs were the F11F or F-5 really going to be credible low altitude nuclear strike aircraft? Or like the F-104G were they always going to be a square peg trying to fill a round hole?
The (not fully realized or realizable) promise of being an effective cheaper “do-it-all” mini-F-4 (plus undoubtedly all the bribes) at low-low US MAP prices made the F-104G very attractive at this time.

 

[zen]

Timing is critical for this scenario.
Uk options are limited but not impossible.
Saro's offering to Germany was shifting to jet only. But it's not certain they could realise the desired result.

However Buccaneer for Marineflieger gains strength here.
Lightning also gains potential.

But what about US next gen aircraft?
Super Tiger is all well and good but what about Super Sabre successor F107?
F8U-III reaches prototype as well.

France has Mirage variants.

Germany did have some ideas of their own.....

Wildcard.....Swedish offering?

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Yep you can pretty much do infinite scenarios from this starting point. Missing F-104 sales going to Dassault, Saunders-Roe or Hawker could dramatically alter history, but you can’t go too far from the divergence point without wild speculation.

The further you go from the point of divergence the more butterflies you get of course. But still we can get some reasonable extrapolarations. For example do Saudis Roe and Hawker really get affected? Hawker has no actual aircraft to offer, I doubt anyone will be willing to buy P.1121 with it existing only on paper. For Saunders Roe I remain leery at any mixed propulsion aircraft getting mass produced. ..

P.1121 could have been built if Hawker and engine companies had made slightly different decisions, but I agree its a long shot.

 

[MaxLegroom]

How about this, as far as the L-2000 is concerned. This time, for whatever reason partly due to the scandals, and Boeing having its hands full with other things, the SST boils down to Lockheed and North American, and the airlines no longer want Lockheed. The NAC-60 enters service in 1973...

 

[Lascaris]

How about this, as far as the L-2000 is concerned. This time, for whatever reason partly due to the scandals, and Boeing having its hands full with other things, the SST boils down to Lockheed and North American, and the airlines no longer want Lockheed. The NAC-60 enters service in 1973...

To tell the truth I suggested L2000 as a partly political decision in order to bail out Lockheed, which otherwise has a good chance of going under. But a North American alternative is intriguing to say the least...

 

[zen]

Yep you can pretty much do infinite scenarios from this starting point. Missing F-104 sales going to Dassault, Saunders-Roe or Hawker could dramatically alter history, but you can’t go too far from the divergence point without wild speculation.

The further you go from the point of divergence the more butterflies you get of course. But still we can get some reasonable extrapolarations. For example do Saudis Roe and Hawker really get affected? Hawker has no actual aircraft to offer, I doubt anyone will be willing to buy P.1121 with it existing only on paper. For Saunders Roe I remain leery at any mixed propulsion aircraft getting mass produced. ..

P.1121 could have been built if Hawker and engine companies had made slightly different decisions, but I agree its a long shot.

I think I'll agree that. Something more could have been made of a Sapphire sized engine fir example.
Though one of the smaller Olympus versions might do...?

 

[apparition13]

The actual strongest/ most logical alternative would probably been a version of the Mirage IIIE however the Germans wanted/ needed the aircraft covered by US MAP military aid so that may rule out anything non-American.

With Lockheed out of the running,

• Germany gets the Supertiger. It was the fighter preferred by the pilots anyway.
• Japan gets the Supertiger. The deal was all but signed anyway when Japan backed out for the Starfighter.
• This puts Grumman in a better financial situation, so Vought, who won the E-2 competition only to lose it because the Navy was worried about Grumman's health, get the contract for the E-2.
• If Vought gets the E-2, that puts them in the driver's seat for the C-2 and S-3. The US Navy gets a common support aircraft by the 70s.

With Lockheed under a cloud, they don't get the C-141 contract. Lockheed may go under, in which case the P-3 and C-130 go elsewhere, with Douglas and Boeing the most likely candidates. Personally I like the idea of Skunkworks winding up at Convair, but this is all really speculative.

It also means that when the USAF starts looking around for an air superiority fighter for Vietnam, they have another option in the Supertiger. Let's say they take that option. It's a better fighter for the ROE than the F-4, so the urgency for a new fighter isn't as pressing, and the F-X program stays in it's original form, as a Strikefighter. Perhaps the two engined swing wing Republic design, based off of the F-105 experience in Vietnam, wins. In any case, the F-15 as we know it doesn't happen.

And with a suitable fighter, neither does the LWF and the F-16. It does leave the field open for the Northrop P-530 Cobra, which fills the same niche as the F-11, and may replace it. Although maybe not; Grumman's G-607 vstol looks an awful lot like a high winged F-11.

An ATF like program would then be in the works for the early 80s, so a supercruiser with conformal carriage and direct lift/sideforce/supermaneuverability is likely, with a full 5th gen stealth fighter program waiting until around 2000.

Or maybe not.

 

[Yellow Palace]

It also means that when the USAF starts looking around for an air superiority fighter for Vietnam, they have another option in the Supertiger. Let's say they take that option. It's a better fighter for the ROE than the F-4, so the urgency for a new fighter isn't as pressing, and the F-X program stays in it's original form, as a Strikefighter. Perhaps the two engined swing wing Republic design, based off of the F-105 experience in Vietnam, wins. In any case, the F-15 as we know it doesn't happen.

Unlikely, I think - the USAF wanted a heavy multi-role tactical fighter, which the F4H could offer; the F11F-1F wouldn't be competing in the same league. The F-106 specifically lost out because its' payload-range performance fell far short of the F4H, and it was compared against the F-105. This wasn't a Vietnam-specific requirement; in fact, I doubt if Vietnam was a consideration at all at the time the F-110 was procured. This would, I suspect, lead to the F-X and LWF programmes running more or less as historical; probably very little impact on US combat aircraft procurement, in fact.

With Germany not buying F-104s, presumably the other NATO orders go elsewhere. The obvious candidates are the F11F-1F and the Mirage III, according to national preference, although others might get involved. For MAP purchases, the F11F-1F is probably most likely, though the Northrop N-156 is hanging around too and might be more suitable for some users.

Downstream effects depend on the extent to which Lockheed cleans its' name up. That will take time, though. The Northrop P-530 is definitely interesting as an F11F-1F replacement, but then it was as an F-104 replacement too and that went nowhere. The departure might be too late for the C-141 contract to be affected, but it might impact the C-5 procurement; in that case, the order probably goes to Boeing. This probably impacts quite considerably on 747 development.

 

[zen]

What the F104 had was a high wingloading making it ok for ground attack, and this change of role occurred even before the Starfighter was ordered.
That's why Saro was busy changing the P.177 design to German requirements.

I'm not sure the Super Tiger had that high wingloading, which means while it's a a better fighter and should win the Japanese order. It's not certain to win the German order.

This is part of why the Marineflieger preferred the Buccaneer. But the Luftwaffe had other ideas.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

The G98J5 (proposed to foreign buyers) had 250 sq ft wing areas compared to the F-104's 196 ft (28% higher) but it was also heavier, and the wings were fairly swept, so it would have probably been pretty acceptable in low altitude flight loaded with fuel tanks and bombs. Not sure about those Sidewinders though!

 

[zen]

The G98J5 (proposed to foreign buyers) had 250 sq ft wing areas compared to the F-104's 196 ft (28% higher) but it was also heavier, and the wings were fairly swept, so it would have probably been pretty acceptable in low altitude flight loaded with fuel tanks and bombs. Not sure about those Sidewinders though!

It's an intriguing Alternative History option to see the Super Tiger replace the Starfighter.

This could see it propsed to the RN in the 60's. Possibly making it three viable US designs so offered with the F4 and F8.

It's also more attractive than the Starfighter for the MRI Mission for the RAF......
IF Germany gets a licence deal. The UK could argue for similar.

It's got to be attractive to Italy.

So in theory this could even gain greater success than the F104.....

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

And there's the two seat "mini-Phantom" version with Sparrow.

 

[zen]

And there's the two seat "mini-Phantom" version with Sparrow.

Bung a Spey in it's good to go for the RN FAA. Smalley, lighter, surely cheaper. Mach 2 speed, surely 2 hours CAP.
And if bought with the RAF.......as part of a larger European NATO purchase / licence deal........

 

[Archibald]

Wow. Thanks for the picture, was a gorgeous aircraft, really. Except for the sidewinders mounting which sounds completely stupid. But you British will correct that, as done on the Lightning and Jaguar: same upside-down, but above the wing, of course.

The French Navy may buy 42 of them, think OTL Crusader deal - not before 1962, when Clemenceau enter service. What is really interesting is that the Breguet 1120 Sirocco of 1959 was extremely similar in weight, power, swept wing, dimensions...

The Super Tiger might be a better deal than the Crusader for the Clemenceaus for a simple reason. It had a J79 in place of the bulky J57, making the Super Tiger shorter, so no incidence wing, plus blown flaps for the French ones.
A quick check of Wikipedia shows that the Super tiger was 49 ft long against 54 ft for the Crusader. 5 ft is 1.5 m. The wingspan was also shorter.

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/br%C3%A9guet-1120-sirocco-mach-2-2-naval-fighter-proposal-from-1956-57.142/

Bingo to myself. The Sirocco was only marginally smaller than the Super Tiger, which is hardly surprising. Yet the sirocco was designed in 1959, with the Clemenceaus out of the shipyard hence probably a clear vision of the deck size and catapults limits. Well in this case, the Super Tiger just fits like a glove, actually better than the Crusader (see above).

Breguet 1120 Sirocco

Length: 14.2 meters
Span: 9.0 meters
Height: 4.4 meters
Wing Area: 27m2
Weight(s)
5180kg empty
8400kg normal TOW
11900kg MTOW

Grumman Super Tiger

• Length: 48 ft 9 in (14.85 m)
• Wingspan: 31 ft 8 in (9.65 m)
• Height: 14 ft 4 in [9] (4.36 m)
• Wing area: 250 ft² (23.25 m²)
• Empty weight: 13,810 lb (6,277 kg)
• Loaded weight: 21,035 lb (9,561 kg)
• Max. takeoff weight: 26,086 lb (11,833 kg)

And of course the J79 bury the Atar in raw thrust, except for the 9K50 which did not existed before 1966 and the Mirage F1.

 

[sferrin]

Any chance of the F-107 or XF8U-3 being close enough, schedule wise, to be involved?

 

[zen]

Any chance of the F-107 or XF8U-3 being close enough, schedule wise, to be involved?

1956 to 61 seems the time.

 

[sferrin]

Both had their first flights right in the middle of that.

 

[kaiserd]

Any chance of the F-107 or XF8U-3 being close enough, schedule wise, to be involved?

1956 to 61 seems the time.

But (some what like the developed/ advanced F11F) the reality is that without a production order from US forces Germany ultimately unlikely to bite re: the F-107 or XF8U-3.
And particular the XF8U-3 is quite a different beast (heavier and more of a dedicated interceptor) than German requirements.
While I appreciate the F-104G was also not ordered by the US it was based on an airframe that was then still in service with the US Air Force (and the scope and impact of required changes had been down played).
Ultimate a lot of the issues around this procurement was trying to get too much out of the one light-medium weight airframe that in this time period couldn’t be the multi-role fighters the F-4 or subsequent generations of fighters could be. For example irrespective of engine the F11F likely to have real range/payload and other issues with the low level nuclear strike role given the need for extra equipment in the airframe and the types pre-existing range/ endurance issues.
The best of the weight class of this generation was the Mirage III; if someone could come up with a plausible J-79 powered Mirage III (long before the Kfir) in this time period for this requirement then we would be talking a more viable path-not-taken, especially if it absolutely had to be the one airframe.
Otherwise splitting the procurement among 2 airframes (one the high altitude is interceptor, the other the low level striker or strike-fighter) looks very obvious now.

 

[sferrin]

Any chance of the F-107 or XF8U-3 being close enough, schedule wise, to be involved?

1956 to 61 seems the time.

But (some what like the developed/ advanced F11F) the reality is that without a production order from US forces Germany ultimately unlikely to bite re: the F-107 or XF8U-3.
And particular the XF8U-3 is quite a different beast (heavier and more of a dedicated interceptor) than German requirements.

True. I'd think the YF-107, with it's ability to carry a recessed weapon on the belly, would be closer inline with what they were looking for than the Crusader.

 

[aim9xray]

Wow. Thanks for the picture, was a gorgeous aircraft, really. Except for the sidewinders mounting which sounds completely stupid.

Actually, no. Quite ingenious. Grumman wind tunnel testing revealed that the dorsal fairing reduced total airframe drag by eight counts. Adding the tandem Sidewinders added eight drag counts.

Net effect: zero drag increment for adding the Sidewinders. This was a lot better than putting the 'winders under the wing - particularly as China Lake had failed to make the low-drag folding-fin Sidewinder actually work.

The fuselage Sidewinders would have been rail-launched; however the rail and missile would have been raised to launch position by swing arms (much as the Falcons were lowered out of the F-102/F-106 weapons bays).

The comentariat should look at the Super Tiger book by Corky Meyer, published by Steve Ginter.

 

[apparition13]

What the F104 had was a high wingloading making it ok for ground attack, and this change of role occurred even before the Starfighter was ordered.
That's why Saro was busy changing the P.177 design to German requirements.

I'm not sure the Super Tiger had that high wingloading, which means while it's a a better fighter and should win the Japanese order. It's not certain to win the German order.

This is part of why the Marineflieger preferred the Buccaneer. But the Luftwaffe had other ideas.

They would though. The Luftwaffe pilots preferred the F-11; it was Bonn that forced the F-104 on them. With Lockheed discredited the only option open for the politicians to save face would be to go with what the pilots wanted. Although a mix of Buccaneers and SuperTigers would have been ideal for both the air defense, nuclear strike, and maritime strike roles, with the added advantage that Grumman was developing the F11F-2* into a proto-F/A-18 like aircraft that could also do the (light) attack mission.

Oh, and the C-141 contract was in 1960, which is after Lockheed's machinations would have had to have been revealed for Lascaris's scenario to work. Which should kill Lockheed's bid, and between the loss of the C-141 and F-104 sales there would be a good chance they would go under.

*F11F-2 was the intended production designation.

Any chance of the F-107 or XF8U-3 being close enough, schedule wise, to be involved?

1956 to 61 seems the time.

But (some what like the developed/ advanced F11F) the reality is that without a production order from US forces Germany ultimately unlikely to bite re: the F-107 or XF8U-3.
And particular the XF8U-3 is quite a different beast (heavier and more of a dedicated interceptor) than German requirements.

True. I'd think the YF-107, with it's ability to carry a recessed weapon on the belly, would be closer inline with what they were looking for than the Crusader.

The YF-107, F-105, or Buccaneer would all have been ideal for the strike role. Personally I'd go with the Buccaneer. Best low level performance, although if purchased for the overland strike role one of the TFR equipped proposals would need to go forward.

I love the F8U-3, especially the Advanced Crusader variant with 4 sidewinders and 2 of Vought's long range missiles for the competition won by the Bendix Eagle. I don't know how much sense it would make over Germany without look down/shoot down capability, but it would be a good fit for the GIUK gap. And an E-2, F6D, F8U-3, A-6 carrier wing would be Outer Air Battle in all but name in 1965.

And I'll second aim9xray's endorsement of the Ginter Super Tiger book, and add one for the F8U-3 book as well.

 

[zen]

Certainly the split of high altitude fighter and low level attack and strike is sound.
Hence the F8U-III and F107.

Had Saro's machine flown, then it's obvious evolution to jet only is all but a certainty. But as a light attack and fighter system. Not nuclear strike.

This is P1121 territory but it was too late and unsupported by the government. Had the P1103 been chosen and funded or put forward successfully to F.153 then things might have been different.


Buccaneer cannot win a fighter order.

 

[Hood]

Another consideration is production, would Grumman have agreed to licenced production in Europe? The creation of ARGE Nord and ARGE Sud were vital to keep the West German and Dutch (and to a lesser extent Italian) industries active in constructing modern military aircraft. If so, there is no reason why the Germans, Dutch and Italians could not have all brought Super Tigers.

Bucaneer is less likely even in a strike role. When you are looking to carry a single nuclear weapon, the Super Tiger looks better on paper. Remember US weapons are more compact, Bucaneer was lugging around the bloated Red Beard. In regards to finance, some of the development was covered by MDAP funding so its not beyond the realms of possibility that Germany could have asked for MDAP funds to buy some. Politically, trying to not upset the Soviets and East Germans, its possible the sale of an bomber would have been impossible to sanction.

Mirage III might have been a cheaper option.
Hard to see the British having any skin in this game post 57. The Lightning is a potent interceptor but this predates the later 'multi-role' developments (I use the term loosely) for export to the Middle East and its hard to see how you could make a good nuclear fighter-bomber out of it.

Of course the more fascinating result might be that projects like the VJ 101 or VAK 191 actually make it to production during the late 1960s. An Anglo-French-German Jaguar anyone?

 

[sferrin]

When you are looking to carry a single nuclear weapon, the Super Tiger looks better on paper.

The YF-107 was designed to conformal-carry one.

 

[kaiserd]

When you are looking to carry a single nuclear weapon, the Super Tiger looks better on paper.

The YF-107 was designed to conformal-carry one.View attachment 617148

But would Germany or other parties have really considered the F-107 “buyable” in the absence of any US order?
Any even leaving that aside, while potentially the better more flexible strike—fighter than the f-104G would the F-107 have been particularly suited to the interceptor part of the requirement?
This is one of those historic military aviation what-if’s that doesn’t have a neat better answer; the German requirement was too wide and too demanding so anything you pick is a series of quite significant compromises.
You can almost understand why the German officials took the money and chose to believe over-optimistic promises re: the F-104G.

 

[sferrin]

When you are looking to carry a single nuclear weapon, the Super Tiger looks better on paper.

The YF-107 was designed to conformal-carry one.View attachment 617148

But would Germany or other parties have really considered the F-107 “buyable” in the absence of any US order?

I don't know. In that respect it would be in the same boat as the Super Tiger. As for it's interception abilities it was certainly fast enough, and probably had more range than the F-104, but it wasn't far enough along to say for sure one way or another.

edit: http://www.joebaugher.com/usaf_fighters/f100_4.html

(Sounds like it would have needed a lot of work.)

 

[Grey Havoc]

Definitely had potential though.

 

[sferrin]

Definitely had potential though.

For sure. Pretty much everything trying to get VG inlets working back then had difficulties. F-106, F-4, XF8U-3, etc.

 

[uk 75]

I fear reality might have been duller.
The Lockheed F104 managed to be all things to all men, helped by generous bungs.
In its absence the NATO countries would have made do their with their existing aircraft into the 60s
Based on their requirements I would imagine the following instead of F104s
Belgium Mirage III
Canada F4C Phantom
Denmark J35 Draken
FRGermany F4C
Italy Mir III
Netherl Mir III
Norway J35 Draken
Greece and Turkey would have got a mix of F4 and Mir III
Actually this would have been pretty good after 1966. But the gap left by F104 might have been felt earlier.
Without the impetus of being part of F104 the FRG vstol prog and then MRCA would not have happened. The F4 would have been in service thru to now

 

[zen]

The FRG obsession with V/STOL would still happen. It's dictated by their position and the thinking of the times.

 

[uk 75]

Sorry I was being lazy. I was referring more to the skills and experience the Germans and Italians gained from their involvement in F104.
It is possible that the Germans might have been keener on developing the P1127 than in real life, but what the various FRG designs intended was essentially a VSTOL F104 capable of delivering a US bomb for NATO.

 

[uk 75]

just to add, the close support VAK 191 was a partnership initially with Italy. That might have been possible without F104.

 

[uk 75]

A thought does occur. For all its numerous faults, the F104 was the standard NATO fighter and nuclear delivery for a long time plus Taiwan and Japan and Franco's Spain. Even the F16 did not get used by all those nations. Perhaps the bungs werent necessary

 

[riggerrob]

Why is paying bribes the normal way of doing business in the Second and Third World contriesb but considered taboo in First World Countries?

Just this past year Ottawa has been scandalized by rumours that a Canadian construction firm paid bribes to win contracts in Libya!