Maybe i'm a curmudgeon, but i don't think a startup can pull this off. Let me rephrase that: an extremely well financed startup that doesn't steal aerospace talent from one of the big companies, and embraces and recreates the processes necessary to design, build, and certify a safe, reliable, and economically viable air vehicle.
It's one thing to make a $400 internet-connected juicer, an entirely different one to make an on-demand mobility vehicle.
The more serious contenders, IMHO, are A^3 Vahana and Zee, lavishly bankrolled, and staffed with traditional aerospace people operating without the shackles of government contracts or miser budgets. Zee had a rough start, but is back on track.
For a somewhat similar situation to the current Air Taxi gold rush, we only have to look at the VLJ craze of the last decade. At some point there were a couple of dozens of would-be players. The vast majority failed, with certification being the valley of death for the few that got that far. And that was for a conventional aircraft, not an autonomous electric vehicle. The exceptions were Embraer (traditional aerospace company), and Eclipse (but that can hardly be said to be a success).
@GTX: i agree, the term "Jet" was used by Lilium for marketing purposes, and if you look exclusively at the definition, it's NOT untrue. However, it is also undeniable that the vast majority of people associate jets with gas turbines, and the distinction will be lost on them. They will think: "it's the same engine that's on a fighter jet. It must be really fast!"
Note: I am firmly convinced there is a circle of hell reserved for marketing people. Most likely the eighth, reserved for fraudsters
Here's my prediction, and we only have to wait, oh, maybe two years for it to be verified at least for the early parts, five for the rest.
- Lilium hires enough engineers to get the design to preliminary design review
- They find out that some important considerations had been left out in their conceptual design, or that some assumptions were too rosy.
- Redesign is needed (mind you this is an easy prophecy since they've already changed the design three or four times, and the hard parts are still ahead).
- First flight is pushed back
- Money is spent. They go through another round of financing.
- Most likely the performance specs are lowered.
- Design activities continue, but there are still unforeseen problems with the tightly coupled aeropropulsion system. With distributed propulsion, the pressure distribution on the entire wing depends on the throttle setting of the ducted fans, airspeed, and angle of attack. The people responsible for the triplex or quadruplex FCS need a detailed aero database, otherwise they can't write the control laws. Either you have to do wind tunnel campaigns, or go the CFD route, running millions of points 24/7 on a cluster (that's what Zee did).
- The success of the startup depends on meeting milestones, otherwise it fizzles. They've set the bar so high, and raised expectations by claiming to have flown a full-scale prototype (the RC empty shell), that it's going to be impossible to keep this up.
- At some point, the founding members are going to leave the venture with their pockets lined with a few million bucks (not bad for a couple of years of work fresh out of grad school).
- The work continues with new
suckers owners, with new first flight date
- Lilium disappears from the news
- Eventually they decide to cut their losses because even if they make something work with much reduced performance, they still have the hurdle of certification to traverse
Thus endeth Lilium.
But who knows, maybe ten years from now we'll all be zipping around in Lilium jets, and i will eat crow, forever regretting doubting their wonderful invention.