As mentioned over in the NSM thread I'm not sure where this leaves the NSM-SL variant (which confusingly is actually a JSM variant, because only JSM will fit in a 21 inch encapsulated torpedo launch system). Tyrfing is clearly running off the back of the 212CD submarine programme. Which both Norway and Germany are buying. But the first sub won't arrive until at least 2029, with 1 sub built per year up to 2035 on current plans, which lets face it will probably slip...
Given the timeline before a 212CD is actually operational, which won't be earlier than 2031, does this mean NSM-SL is now dead on arrival? Is it worth, or can they, or do they want to develop NSM-SL AND 3SM Tyrfing. Right now there's a gaping hole out in the market for a modern Western sub launched AShM, with decent land attack capability, to replace the few remaining Sub-Harpoon and SM39 Exocet. And NSM has done very well indeed in recent years.
The only 'Western' ones on the horizon are the Turkish Atmaca, which has been proposed for sub launch but not developed (and I'd question how many western states would be interested in Turkish weapons from Erdogan), and lets be honest its not really competition with NSM and its LO shaping. FCASW will, allegedly, have sub launched variants. But they're not likely to arrive in anti-shipping guise until the mid-2030's. Presumably the USN is working on something given their surprising recent trials with long retired Sub-Harpoon...but then they're an enthusiastic NSM user as well...Tomahawk may arrive in a sub-launched anti-shipping guise, but would need to be encapsulated to interest anyone outside of the USN...
Personally I'd have though NSM-SL would have been a slam dunk...but Kongsberg does not appear to be interested in speculative development without a contract (see NSM-HL and not integrating JSM on P-8...).
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