JMSDF - CVH Next (Izumo Class Follow-on)

[Ironmiked]

I'm tracking the multi-phase conversions of the Izumo Class to operate the F-35B and V-22. What will Japan build next to provide fixed-wing capability for its fleet? Sometime in the 2030's (if not sooner) the JMSDF will build another class of carriers. These will either replace the smaller Hyuga Class or expand the growing large-deck fleet of aviation capable ships. Regardless of what they are designated (DDH, CVH, etc.), how big will they be...Queen Elizabeth Class sized or something more moderate? Could it be a joint project with Australia or another regional partner? Will it be VSTOL (I believe likely)? I'm curious what the community thinks will come next regarding ship size, air wing and the numbers of hulls constructed. Thanks in advance for your thoughts and observations!

 

[CV12Hornet]

The most likely scenario is something to replace the Hyuuga-class with ships capable of fixed-wing ops. Even then I have my doubts it's going to happen in the 2030s like you think; the Hyuugas are very new and the Japanese didn't retire the Haruna and Shirane-class destroyers their CVHs are replacing until they were 35, 36, and 37 years old.

Expansion is, IMO, out of the question due to the JSDF's ongoing manpower issues, something that's only going to get worse as their demographics decay.

So unless the JMSDF can persuade the Diet to fund new aviation ships well before the Hyuuga-class reach the end of their lifespans, I don't see new aviation ships being acquired until the 2040s, and who knows what things'll look like by then!

That being said, it's not wholly out of the question for the Diet to fund early replacement. There's a scenario where the JMSDF converts one Hyuuga to a helicopter assault ship and sells the second off (though I'm not sure who would buy; Brazil, maybe?), and buys two Izumo follow-ons to expand its fixed-wing capacity. I'm picturing something pretty moderate, essentially an upgraded Izumo with more aviation stores, primarily. Their ability to carry a single F-35B squadron is, for Japan's doctrine, adequate.

I doubt a joint project is on the table. Korea is never going to do a joint project with Japan, Australia's budget figures to be tied up in nuclear submarine development for the foreseeable future, and that's about the list of local navies interested in a light carrier project.

 

[Ironmiked]

Folks, I recently read somewhere that Japan has made inquiries regarding EMALS. Is there any prospect for a follow-on reconfiguration of the first two hulls or a second flight, built from scratch to accommodate F-35C?