Jaguar cancelled with AFVG

uk 75

uk 75

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In an alternate 1966 the French decide that not only do they not need AFVG but with Mirage III andV they do not need Jaguar.

The RAF decide to press for a low cost Gnat replacement which produces either a BAC or HS type similar to Hawk.

By 1970 the RAF has learnt to like the Buccaneer. The new Conservative government looks sympathetically to a South African order for more Bucs together with Nimrods and Wasps.
An improved Buccaneer to replace the Phantoms in RAFG and 38 Group is ordered for delivery by 1974.

BAC is left with only Strikemaster and Lightning. The RAF has a requirement for a Lightning replacement. Other NATO countries are looking for an F104 replacement. The New Combat Aircraft (NCA) programme takes time to come together. The UK and Canada want a two seater interceptor while Germany, Italy, Belgium and Netherlands want a single seater air superiority type.
Having seen the advantages of the two seater Phantom, the Germans decide to join the Brits and Canadians.
 
Nice @uk 75. I do feel like there’s a missed opportunity somewhere here for a Spey Mirage F1, for both the UK and France (including the Aeronavale).

With the same British Nav/Attack system as designed for the Jaguar GR1, this would be the perfect basic attack aircraft, as an alternative to the Jaguar and Mirage F1A. With co-development later of a UK-FR pulse doppler radar it would be more competitive vs. the F-16. And finally it could replace the Etendard and Crusader in French Navy service.
 
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H_K said:
Nice @uk 75. I do feel like there’s a missed opportunity somewhere here for a Spey Mirage F1, for both the UK and France (including the Aeronavale).

With the same British Nav/Attack system as designed for the Jaguar GR1, this would be the perfect basic attack aircraft, as an alternative to the Jaguar and Mirage F1A. With co-development later of a UK-FR pulse doppler radar it would be more competitive vs. the F-16. And finally it could replace the Etendard and Crusader in French Navy service.
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I like the notion of Spey-powered Mirage F1, after all, with the exception of the misguided 'supersonic traineer' aspect of the Jaguar, it does seem that the Jaguar and Mirage F1 were somewhat duplication of resources.....
Perhaps include the bigger wing of the proposed carrier-based Mirage F1M?

Although saying this, I still take comfort in an attack/interdiction aircraft having two engines whilst over the heart of hostile territory :rolleyes:

Regards
Pioneer
 
I am not sure Whitehall would be in the mood for another Anglo French defence project in this scenario.
Buccaneer seems to me a much better fit.
The RAF Lightning replacement seems a much better option for BAC.
 
The AdA would jump up and down in joy. Jaguar was a massive financial burden, 1969 to IOC 1973, which disturbed varied Mirages procurement efforts.
 
At the time....1966.

RAF was pushing the tactical VG system. Which had become AFVG and tottered on briefly as UKVG.

Supersonic Trainer had resolved into the Jaguar.

F4K and F4M were ongoing programs.
Buccaneer had lost mkIII and CVA-01 was still live but about to be cancelled. By '67 the long term plan was thrown out and ASW CVL would ultimately result.

France pulling the plug on both AFVG and Jaguar likely is enough to rupture Concord.

Hawk could result or Jaguar might carry on as purely domestic effort. But as per history, Jaguar is morphing into P1154 successor program.
 
Nope Concorde is an unstopable train wreck because no escape clause in the 11/1962 agreement. Try as British might, they never got away. Unlike Airbus and Europa at the same time.
 
P1154 belonged to the same scenario as TSR2 and 681. By 1966/7 money was in short supply.

The Jaguar morphed into a P1154 replacement because it was there. Buccaneers and Phantoms with two seats, two engines and big range/loads were better and Buccaneers needed little upgrading beyond what they got in real life.

Equipping RAFG and 38 Group with a Buccaneer and Harrier frontline would be both cheap and effective. No range and payload restrictions like Tormado.

Replacing Lightnings with Phantoms earlier gives a blank.piece of paper for replacement in the 80s. BAC knew it had the answer.
 
uk 75 said:
Equipping RAFG and 38 Group with a Buccaneer and Harrier frontline would be both cheap and effective. No range and payload restrictions like Tormado.

Replacing Lightnings with Phantoms earlier gives a blank.piece of paper for replacement in the 80s. BAC knew it had the answer.
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Looks like a reasonable scenario.

Doesn’t produce any more air-to-air capability than historical in the 70s though, which might have been a concern with Lightning getting long in the tooth. That’s why I was trying to find a way to fit in a dual role fighter-bomber like the Mirage F1 Spey. The Jaguar buy (initially 90 then later 165 single seaters) might then be split 50-50 into improved Buccaneers for RAF Germany (4 squadrons) and Mirages for 38 Group and tactical reconnaissance (4 squadrons). This would come at the expense of the extra Harrier buys you envision, but still lead to a very balanced force.

Considering the UK-FR helicopter agreement negotiated during this time period (1967-68) led to the exchange of Pumas and Gazelles for Lynxes, perhaps a similar agreement could lead to the Aeronavale buying Buccaneers instead of Super Etendard… wow now that would be a nice improvement!
 
A Spey Mirage F1 was considered circa 1969 by the Aéronavale. Although the TF306E and M53 makes it a very unlikely option. France could not afford three different military turbofans ! Or you would need a POD in 1963 or 1959.
 
uk 75 said:
Buccaneers needed little upgrading beyond what they got in real life.

Equipping RAFG and 38 Group with a Buccaneer and Harrier frontline would be both cheap and effective.
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Nav/Attack, ECM, new weapons etc....

Buccaneers were not cheap. Operating costs many times that of Jaguar.
 
Zen said:
France pulling the plug on both AFVG and Jaguar likely is enough to rupture Concorde.
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The Concorde development contracts had extremely stiff cancellation penalties, inserted at the request of the UK, that would have made cancellation so expensive as to be almost impossible politically.
 
red admiral said:
Nav/Attack, ECM, new weapons etc....

Buccaneers were not cheap. Operating costs many times that of Jaguar.
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The capability provided by the Bucs was of a similar order higher.
Then add no development/procurement costs for Jaguar and Tornado
The NCA programme would give the RAF a replacement for its Phantoms/Lightnings by the early 80s.
Upgrading Buccaneer in various ways could keep it relevant into the 90s.
A derivative of NCA could be one of a number of possible replacements.

(I agree that Jags and Tornados worked well for the RAF (though not the AdA))
 
@uk 75 For NCA are you thinking something like P110? One of my all time favorites… basically a British F/A-18, with more fuel efficient engines (RB199)

11146-9c8d5e76e77358c3ddd08a6834ff77ae.jpg


p110-2-jpg.475723
 
A bit too late for NCA, BAC (BAe does not exist until the mid 70s) were still into VG types but its an interesting thought.
 
Must be the @NOMISYRRUC in me... (with due respect, of course) :D

From 1961 to 2001 the Armée de l'Air received
-457 Mirage III in many variants
-62 Mirage IVA
-246 Mirage F1
-200 Jaguars
-315 Mirage 2000 ... Total 1280 (or 1080 Mirages, if you prefer it that way).
...
And also: 176 Alpha Jets. ... 1456
...
The Aéronavale got
-42 Crusaders
-90 Etendard IV
-71 Super Etendard ... Total 203 ...... Grand total 1659

First Mirage delivered to the Armée de l'Air was a Mirage IIIC in 1961.
Last Mirage F1 delivered to the AdA was a CR in 1987.
Last Mirage delivered to the Armée de l'Air was a Mirage 2000D in 2001.

-Seems the last new "Mirage III" were Chile & Venezuela's Mirage 50s : 16 and 8 respectively, delivered around 1980.
-Mirage F1 production ended in 1992.
-Mirage 2000 production ended in 2007.
 
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Archibald said:
Must be the @NOMISYRRUC in me... (with due respect, of course) :D

From 1961 to 2001 the Armée de l'Air received
-473 Mirage III in many variants
-62 Mirage IVA
-246 Mirage F1
-200 Jaguars
-315 Mirage 2000 ... Total 1296 (or 1096 Mirages, if you prefer it that way).
...
And also: 176 Alpha Jets. ... 1472
...
The Aéronavale got
-42 Crusaders
-90 Etendard IV
-71 Super Etendard ... Total 203 ...... Grand total 1675

First Mirage delivered to the Armée de l'Air was a Mirage IIIC in 1961.
Last Mirage delivered to the Armée de l'Air was a Mirage 2000D in 2001.
Click to expand...
For what it's worth the Dassault website says.
France’s Air Force has taken delivery of 95 Mirage III C, 59 Mirage III B, B1, B2 and BE (the D version for the export market), 70 Mirage R and RD, 183 Mirage III E, and 50 Mirage 5 F, putting the total at 457 planes. The last of those planes were withdrawn from operational units in 1994. Some, however, were still used at CEV, a flight test center, after that.
Click to expand...
The Mirage III/5/50 family points to France’s high-ranking position among the world’s industrial nations. A total 1 401 Mirage III/5/50, in 90 different versions, have been built since 1958. They have served in 21 countries around the world and clocked a combined 3 million flying hours.
Click to expand...
www.dassault-aviation.com

Mirage III: origins, characteristics and performance data

Designed at the end of 1955, the Mirage III is a single-engine bomber fighter aircraft with a delta wing and a fuselage designed according to the area rule.
www.dassault-aviation.com www.dassault-aviation.com

And I thought that 21 of of the 62 Mirage F1CRs were cancelled reducing the number of Mirage F1s built for the AdA from 246 to 225. However, it looks like an extra pair of F1Cs were built for the AdA which increased the total to 227 consisting of 20 F1B, 164 F1C and 43 F1CRs.
 
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Thank you for the numbers !

books.google.fr

Programmation militaire : 1990-1993

L'auteur, président de la commission de la Défense nationale et des forces armées de l'Assemblée nationale, présente un rapport d'ensemble qui développe les grandes lignes de la loi de programmation militaire. « Copyright Electre »
books.google.fr

Not 64 nor 43 but actually 62 Mirage F1CR.
 
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Archibald said:
Thank you for the numbers !

books.google.fr

Programmation militaire : 1990-1993

L'auteur, président de la commission de la Défense nationale et des forces armées de l'Assemblée nationale, présente un rapport d'ensemble qui développe les grandes lignes de la loi de programmation militaire. « Copyright Electre »
books.google.fr

Not 64 nor 43 but actually 62 Mirage F1CR.
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The number of Mirage F1CRs ordered and built for the AdA depends upon the whether the 2 prototypes are included. With 64 were ordered. Without 62 were ordered.

The 21 aircraft ordered in 1981 were cancelled. That means a total of 41 or 43 Mirage F1CRs were built for the AdA depending upon whether the prototypes are included.

The 246 Mirage F1s that you wrote were built for the AdA and I wrote were ordered for the AdA didn't include the 4 F1C prototypes and the 2 F1CR prototypes. If they are included a total of 252 were ordered for the AdA and 231 were actually built. That is 20 F1B (all production), 168 F1C (4 prototypes & 164 production) and 43 F1CR (2 prototypes & 41 production).

Part of Post 17 to which @Archibald was replying.
NOMISYRRUC said:
And I thought that 21 of of the 62 Mirage F1CRs were cancelled reducing the number of Mirage F1s built for the AdA from 246 to 225. However, it looks like an extra pair of F1CRs were built for the AdA which increased the total to 227 consisting of 20 F1B, 164 F1C and 43 F1CRs.
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The 2 additional F1CRs were the prototypes.
 
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Part of Post 17.
NOMISYRRUC said:
For what it's worth the Dassault website says.
France’s Air Force has taken delivery of 95 Mirage III C, 59 Mirage III B, B1, B2 and BE (the D version for the export market), 70 Mirage R and RD, 183 Mirage III E, and 50 Mirage 5 F, putting the total at 457 planes. The last of those planes were withdrawn from operational units in 1994. Some, however, were still used at CEV, a flight test center, after that.
Click to expand...
The Mirage III/5/50 family points to France’s high-ranking position among the world’s industrial nations. A total 1 401 Mirage III/5/50, in 90 different versions, have been built since 1958. They have served in 21 countries around the world and clocked a combined 3 million flying hours.
Click to expand...
www.dassault-aviation.com

Mirage III: origins, characteristics and performance data

Designed at the end of 1955, the Mirage III is a single-engine bomber fighter aircraft with a delta wing and a fuselage designed according to the area rule.
www.dassault-aviation.com www.dassault-aviation.com
Click to expand...
Part of Post 18.
Archibald said:
Thank you for the numbers !
Click to expand...
Except the Dassault website doesn't mention the 8 Mirage 5Fs that were built as replacements for the 8 Mirage 5Fs that were converted to Mirage 50s and sold to Chile. So 58 Mirage 5Fs were built for the AdA and a grand total to 465 Mirage III/5 was built for the AdA.

The Wikipedia article on the Mirage III family says a total of 468 Mirage III/5 were built for the AdA. They consisted of 62 Mirage B/B-1/B-2/BE, 95 Mirage IIIC, 183 Mirage IIIE, 70 Mirage IIIR/RD and 58 Mirage 5F.

The difference of 11 aircraft between it and the 457 aircraft on the Dassault website being 3 Mirage IIIB/B1/B2/BE and the 8 Mirage 5Fs built as replacements for the ex-Israeli aircraft built for Chile.

I've got another source that says 471 Mirage III/5 were built for the AdA as follows:
  • 63 two-seat Mirage IIIs.
    • 28 Mirage IIIB.
      • One prototype (based on the Mirage IIIA) first flown on 20 October 1959.
      • 26 production IIIBs (based on the Mirage IIIC) for the AdA.
      • One for the Centre d'essais en vol (CEV) test centre.
    • 5 Mirage IIIB-1 trials aircraft.
    • 10 Mirage IIIB-2(RV) Inflight refuelling training aircraft for Mirage IV force.
    • 20 Mirage IIIBE.
  • 95 Mirage IIIC.
  • 183 Mirage IIIE. It doesn't say so, but there were 3 prototype and 180 production aircraft.
  • 72 reconnaissance Mirage IIIs.
    • 52 Mirage IIIR including 2 prototypes.
    • 20 Mirage IIIRD.
  • 58 Mirage 5F.
    • 50 ex-Israeli Mirage 5Js, but 8 aircraft withdrawn for conversion to Mirage 50C for Chile.
      • And.
    • 8 new-build 5Fs built as replacements for the aircraft that were sold to Chile.
So the difference between that and the Wikipedia article is 3 aircraft consisting of the single Mirage IIIB prototype and 2 Mirage IIIR prototypes.

My current total for Mirage III/5/50 production is 1,433 aircraft (including prototypes) from the Mirage I to the Mirage 50s built for Venezuela. However, I recently discovered (yesterday) that some of them were refurbished Mirage 5Ms that weren't delivered/returned to Dassault because the Government of Zaire couldn't pay for them.

What adds to the confusion is that some prototypes were new aircraft and others were existing aircraft. E.g. the 2 Mirage IIIVs were new aircraft, but the Balzac V, Mirage IIIT and Milan were conversions of existing aircraft.
 
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RoC #23. 17/5/65 Memorandum of Understanding was 150 ea: France (75 ea. A/E), UK (all B trainers, to replace Hunter T.7/Gnat T.1. The MoU also initiated talks on rotors).
Production MoU 16/1/67 was 200 ea: France (75 ea. A/E, 40 M, 10 Aeronavale E), UK (110 B, 90 S).

A rotors MoU 22/2/67 set up the Puma/Gazelle/Lynx package

France chopped AFVG 29/6/67. UK could have chopped Jaguar (mitigating any French incremental cost), or reverted to all B Trainers...but: 10/5/67 UK had made its 2nd. Application to join EEC, so did not wish to incur CDG's ire, and:
the Saudi Air Defence System was onway to operational status 13/11/67 for the interim Lightning F.52: nothing must undermine progress to F.53 operational status (to be 12/69): total Jaguar chop would do exactly that. So UK sighed at being jilted by Marianne, even pressing on with the rotory package when CDG uttered Non again, 27/11/67.

(In 1970 UK changed: 165 S, 35 (to be 38) B; in 1973 France changed: 160 A, 40 E. M became SuE, most Bs became Hawk)
 
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alertken said:
RoC #23. 17/5/65 Memorandum of Understanding was 150 ea: France (75 ea. A/E), UK (all B trainers, to replace Hunter T.7/Gnat T.1. The MoU also initiated talks on rotors).
Production MoU 16/1/67 was 200 ea: France (75 ea. A/E, 40 M, 10 Aeronavale E), UK (110 B, 90 S).

A rotors MoU 22/2/67 set up the Puma/Gazelle/Lynx package

France chopped AFVG 29/6/67. UK could have chopped Jaguar (mitigating any French incremental cost), or reverted to all B Trainers...but: 10/5/67 UK had made its 2nd. Application to join EEC, so did not wish to incur CDG's ire, and:
the Saudi Air Defence System was onway to operational status 13/11/67 for the interim Lightning F.52: nothing must undermine progress to F.53 operational status (to be 12/69): total Jaguar chop would do exactly that. So UK sighed at being jilted by Marianne, even pressing on with the rotory package when CDG uttered Non again, 27/11/67.

(In 1970 UK changed: 165 S, 35 (to be 38) B; in 1973 France changed: 160 A, 40 E. M became SuE, most Bs became Hawk)
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A quid pro quo on Helicopters, advanced trainers supersonic airliners and for a few years a VG strike aircraft but nothing on transport aircraft when the Franco-German Transall and British Belfast were in development at the same time with the same engine and the RAF had a requirement for a tactical transport.

A pox on NBMR3 & 4!
 
Archibald said:
Must be the @NOMISYRRUC in me... (with due respect, of course) :D
-315 Mirage 2000 ... Total 1280 (or 1080 Mirages, if you prefer it that way).
-Mirage 2000 production ended in 2007.
Click to expand...
For what it's worth.
  • 5 prototypes were flown 1978-80.
  • 48 Mirage 2000s were on order at the beginning of 1981 against a total requirement for 400 (in three main versions) for the AdA with deliveries beginning in 1983.
  • The 3 main versions were single-sea interceptor, single-seat attack and two-seat tactical nuclear strike.
  • From 1985 production aircraft would be powered by the M53-P2 engine that was more powerful than the existing M53-5 turbofan.
  • Deliveries of the Mirage 2000 ASMP two-seat nuclear strike aircraft were scheduled to start in 1986.
 
Problem with replacing the Lightening at that point is the idea of a pure interceptor had pretty much gone away. Given that if they want a Lightening replacement operational anytime before the end of the 70's about the only UK produced option is more FGR.2 though those had been out of production for a few years by then so may not be possible. Another option that maybe could do a co-production would be a F-4E as I think that was the only version still in production and there was a good history of working with McDonnell Douglas by that time. Assuming they didn't try and anglicize it too much that could be available fairly quickly. Other obvious option would be the F-14 which had just entered service by that time. However that would be an expensive option. The F-15 was still in development at that point so unless they wanted to get in on that project somehow it wouldn't be available till early 80's best. Plus it was primarily intended as a single seat fighter. And it would also be expensive.
 

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