Jaguar cancelled with AFVG

[uk 75]

In an alternate 1966 the French decide that not only do they not need AFVG but with Mirage III andV they do not need Jaguar.

The RAF decide to press for a low cost Gnat replacement which produces either a BAC or HS type similar to Hawk.

By 1970 the RAF has learnt to like the Buccaneer. The new Conservative government looks sympathetically to a South African order for more Bucs together with Nimrods and Wasps.
An improved Buccaneer to replace the Phantoms in RAFG and 38 Group is ordered for delivery by 1974.

BAC is left with only Strikemaster and Lightning. The RAF has a requirement for a Lightning replacement. Other NATO countries are looking for an F104 replacement. The New Combat Aircraft (NCA) programme takes time to come together. The UK and Canada want a two seater interceptor while Germany, Italy, Belgium and Netherlands want a single seater air superiority type.
Having seen the advantages of the two seater Phantom, the Germans decide to join the Brits and Canadians.

 

[H_K]

Nice @uk 75. I do feel like there’s a missed opportunity somewhere here for a Spey Mirage F1, for both the UK and France (including the Aeronavale).

With the same British Nav/Attack system as designed for the Jaguar GR1, this would be the perfect basic attack aircraft, as an alternative to the Jaguar and Mirage F1A. With co-development later of a UK-FR pulse doppler radar it would be more competitive vs. the F-16. And finally it could replace the Etendard and Crusader in French Navy service.

 

[Pioneer]

Nice @uk 75. I do feel like there’s a missed opportunity somewhere here for a Spey Mirage F1, for both the UK and France (including the Aeronavale).

With the same British Nav/Attack system as designed for the Jaguar GR1, this would be the perfect basic attack aircraft, as an alternative to the Jaguar and Mirage F1A. With co-development later of a UK-FR pulse doppler radar it would be more competitive vs. the F-16. And finally it could replace the Etendard and Crusader in French Navy service.

I like the notion of Spey-powered Mirage F1, after all, with the exception of the misguided 'supersonic traineer' aspect of the Jaguar, it does seem that the Jaguar and Mirage F1 were somewhat duplication of resources.....
Perhaps include the bigger wing of the proposed carrier-based Mirage F1M?

Although saying this, I still take comfort in an attack/interdiction aircraft having two engines whilst over the heart of hostile territory

Regards
Pioneer

 

[uk 75]

I am not sure Whitehall would be in the mood for another Anglo French defence project in this scenario.
Buccaneer seems to me a much better fit.
The RAF Lightning replacement seems a much better option for BAC.

 

[Archibald]

The AdA would jump up and down in joy. Jaguar was a massive financial burden, 1969 to IOC 1973, which disturbed varied Mirages procurement efforts.

 

[zen]

At the time....1966.

RAF was pushing the tactical VG system. Which had become AFVG and tottered on briefly as UKVG.

Supersonic Trainer had resolved into the Jaguar.

F4K and F4M were ongoing programs.
Buccaneer had lost mkIII and CVA-01 was still live but about to be cancelled. By '67 the long term plan was thrown out and ASW CVL would ultimately result.

France pulling the plug on both AFVG and Jaguar likely is enough to rupture Concord.

Hawk could result or Jaguar might carry on as purely domestic effort. But as per history, Jaguar is morphing into P1154 successor program.

 

[Archibald]

Nope Concorde is an unstopable train wreck because no escape clause in the 11/1962 agreement. Try as British might, they never got away. Unlike Airbus and Europa at the same time.

 

[uk 75]

P1154 belonged to the same scenario as TSR2 and 681. By 1966/7 money was in short supply.

The Jaguar morphed into a P1154 replacement because it was there. Buccaneers and Phantoms with two seats, two engines and big range/loads were better and Buccaneers needed little upgrading beyond what they got in real life.

Equipping RAFG and 38 Group with a Buccaneer and Harrier frontline would be both cheap and effective. No range and payload restrictions like Tormado.

Replacing Lightnings with Phantoms earlier gives a blank.piece of paper for replacement in the 80s. BAC knew it had the answer.

 

[H_K]

Equipping RAFG and 38 Group with a Buccaneer and Harrier frontline would be both cheap and effective. No range and payload restrictions like Tormado.

Replacing Lightnings with Phantoms earlier gives a blank.piece of paper for replacement in the 80s. BAC knew it had the answer.

Looks like a reasonable scenario.

Doesn’t produce any more air-to-air capability than historical in the 70s though, which might have been a concern with Lightning getting long in the tooth. That’s why I was trying to find a way to fit in a dual role fighter-bomber like the Mirage F1 Spey. The Jaguar buy (initially 90 then later 165 single seaters) might then be split 50-50 into improved Buccaneers for RAF Germany (4 squadrons) and Mirages for 38 Group and tactical reconnaissance (4 squadrons). This would come at the expense of the extra Harrier buys you envision, but still lead to a very balanced force.

Considering the UK-FR helicopter agreement negotiated during this time period (1967-68) led to the exchange of Pumas and Gazelles for Lynxes, perhaps a similar agreement could lead to the Aeronavale buying Buccaneers instead of Super Etendard… wow now that would be a nice improvement!

 

[Archibald]

A Spey Mirage F1 was considered circa 1969 by the Aéronavale. Although the TF306E and M53 makes it a very unlikely option. France could not afford three different military turbofans ! Or you would need a POD in 1963 or 1959.

 

[red admiral]

Buccaneers needed little upgrading beyond what they got in real life.

Equipping RAFG and 38 Group with a Buccaneer and Harrier frontline would be both cheap and effective.

Nav/Attack, ECM, new weapons etc....

Buccaneers were not cheap. Operating costs many times that of Jaguar.

 

[Siberia]

France pulling the plug on both AFVG and Jaguar likely is enough to rupture Concorde.

The Concorde development contracts had extremely stiff cancellation penalties, inserted at the request of the UK, that would have made cancellation so expensive as to be almost impossible politically.

 

[uk 75]

Nav/Attack, ECM, new weapons etc....

Buccaneers were not cheap. Operating costs many times that of Jaguar.

The capability provided by the Bucs was of a similar order higher.
Then add no development/procurement costs for Jaguar and Tornado
The NCA programme would give the RAF a replacement for its Phantoms/Lightnings by the early 80s.
Upgrading Buccaneer in various ways could keep it relevant into the 90s.
A derivative of NCA could be one of a number of possible replacements.

(I agree that Jags and Tornados worked well for the RAF (though not the AdA))

 

[H_K]

@uk 75 For NCA are you thinking something like P110? One of my all time favorites… basically a British F/A-18, with more fuel efficient engines (RB199)

 

[uk 75]

A bit too late for NCA, BAC (BAe does not exist until the mid 70s) were still into VG types but its an interesting thought.