Intermediate Nuclear Forces return?

[uk 75]

One of the defining sagas of the Cold War was the deployment of Soviet SS20s followed by US Pershing II and Cruise missiles, and their removal by the INF Treaty which marked the thawing of the Cold War.
Although nuclear, the weapons were all aimed at military targets. However, this would have been small comfort to the surrounding civilian populations.
It was assumed in the conventional phase of a war in Europe cities and towns might be overrun by the Warsaw Pact but WW2 style bombing or missile raids on cities was not envisaged, as the strikes were needed to take out military targets.
Russia's return to WW2 type raids to "terrorise" civilian populations in Ukraine takes us back to a nasty era of warfare in Europe. The Nazis called RAF bomber crews "air pirates".
Apart from nuclear SLBM and a few French ASMPs W Europe has no counter force to a deployment by Russia of conventional and nuclear MRBMs. No W European air force has the full spectrum capabilities of the USAF.
We have been here before in the 30s and the 70s. We have once more to decide how to rearm. The US is entitled to expect W Europe to do more than it has done.

 

[Dilandu]

Currently neither USA nor Russia are actually willing to deploy their IRBM in Europe. Seems that the situation "we could do it, but we didn't want to do it" suits both parties well. The deploymend on European intermediate-range missiles, of course, would change such equation, since Russia would be forced to deploy its IRBM to counter European ones (it isn't Cold War anymore, when USA and USSR could allow themselves to just ignore British and French nuclear arsenals as strategically insignificant. If Europe starts to deploy IRBM, Russia would have no choice but to deploy its own)

 

[GTX]

Pre-emptive warning to posters here not to go into stupid posting and cause thread to be locked.

 

[uk 75]

Russia has the capability (not necessarily the intention) to use a variety of systems against targets in Western Europe.
My intention with this thread is to look at the systems (and possible systems) in both W Europe and Russia.
I agree with Dilandu that neither the US nor Russia are interested in returning SS20s and Pershing 2s to Europe.
Russia does, however, have both conventional and nuclear weapons which could be used to intimidate W European countries by attacking civilian targets as has been done in Ukraine.
W German Chancellor Schmidt once questioned whether a US President would risk a US city to respond to the destruction of a W German one. Trump has answered this question loud and clear. But I doubt if Starmer or Macron would be any keener to do so.
Again I agree with Dilandu that any European MRBMs would be countered by Russia. I doubt in any case whether any European country could get such weapons approved.
As I say my intention is not to second guess a Russian President. But the Kaliningrad and Belarus Iskanders, the Northern Fleet SSNs, numerous drones and air launched missiles exist. Conventional and nuclear ballistic and glide missiles are also available.
I was one of those who were sceptical of the need for INF. US, UK and French SSBNs had replaced the US Thor and Jupiter missiles in giving NATO a counter to the SS20s. Whatever France said in public, its subs, MRBMs and Mirage IVs were ready to launch.

 

[Desertfox]

Russia has both used IRBMs and GLCMs in combat and deployed them in Europe. So yes they are willing to take that step.

 

[johnpjones1775]

Currently neither USA nor Russia are actually willing to deploy their IRBM in Europe. Seems that the situation "we could do it, but we didn't want to do it" suits both parties well. The deploymend on European intermediate-range missiles, of course, would change such equation, since Russia would be forced to deploy its IRBM to counter European ones (it isn't Cold War anymore, when USA and USSR could allow themselves to just ignore British and French nuclear arsenals as strategically insignificant. If Europe starts to deploy IRBM, Russia would have no choice but to deploy its own)

Russia has literally already launched an IRBM in Europe like literally 2 days ago now…

 

[Dreamfighter]

W German Chancellor Schmidt once questioned whether a US President would risk a US city to respond to the destruction of a W German one. Trump has answered this question loud and clear. But I doubt if Starmer or Macron would be any keener to do so.

I wonder who would now (not) be willing to retaliate for a (hypothetical) strike on NATO headquarters in Brussels (Belgium) and/or on SHAPE headquarters in Mons (also Belgium).

 

[johnpjones1775]

Russia has the capability (not necessarily the intention) to use a variety of systems against targets in Western Europe.
My intention with this thread is to look at the systems (and possible systems) in both W Europe and Russia.
I agree with Dilandu that neither the US nor Russia are interested in returning SS20s and Pershing 2s to Europe.
Russia does, however, have both conventional and nuclear weapons which could be used to intimidate W European countries by attacking civilian targets as has been done in Ukraine.
W German Chancellor Schmidt once questioned whether a US President would risk a US city to respond to the destruction of a W German one. Trump has answered this question loud and clear. But I doubt if Starmer or Macron would be any keener to do so.
Again I agree with Dilandu that any European MRBMs would be countered by Russia. I doubt in any case whether any European country could get such weapons approved.
As I say my intention is not to second guess a Russian President. But the Kaliningrad and Belarus Iskanders, the Northern Fleet SSNs, numerous drones and air launched missiles exist. Conventional and nuclear ballistic and glide missiles are also available.
I was one of those who were sceptical of the need for INF. US, UK and French SSBNs had replaced the US Thor and Jupiter missiles in giving NATO a counter to the SS20s. Whatever France said in public, its subs, MRBMs and Mirage IVs were ready to launch.

I think the European partners would all be much more likely to go ahead and defend each other. Russia is a much bigger threat to them than the US.
We have more time to react and respond. and more capabilities to do so effectively.

Trump has only answered for himself, not the rest of the country, or congress, let alone past or future presidents or congresses.

 

[paralay]

One of the defining sagas of the Cold War was the deployment of Soviet SS20s followed by US Pershing II and Cruise missiles

By the mid-1970s, the United States had deployed 180 Pershing-1 mobile-based ballistic missiles in Europe. In response, the USSR began deploying RSD-10 complexes of a similar purpose in 1976. To maintain its superiority, on December 12, 1979, NATO decided to deploy 572 medium-range missiles in Europe: 108 Pershing-2 and 464 BGM-109G Tomahawk land-based mobile cruise missiles (for comparison: in 1987, the USSR had 650 missiles in its arsenals and on duty[2] RSD-10, of which two thirds of this number were intended for the European theater of operations).

Першинг-2 — Википедия

ru.wikipedia.org

 

[Scott Kenny]

I will admit that I expect to see a return of Pershing-equivalent missiles to global arsenals. IRBMs with MARVs. Though we might see the MARV replaced with a hyperglider.

No modern arms-control treaty will happen unless it covers at least US, Russia, and China, plus probably India, Pakistan, UK, and France.

China won't want to negotiate unless India is included, India won't want to negotiate unless Pakistan is included, and then someone is going to insist on UK and France if we are making a new INF treaty over specific ranges/types of delivery systems.

 

[uk 75]

I recall various proposals for Pershings with conventional payloads. These would seem appropriate in an updated form to counter the new Russian MRBM without resorting to French or UK nukes.

 

[publiusr]

I was hoping IRBMs had gone extinct...was Agni from India the first new design fielded post Cold War? The DPRK and other small nations had some for the whole duration of course.

 

[Scott Kenny]

was Agni from India the first new design fielded post Cold War?

I believe so.