Ghost Fleet

[Zeppelin]

Has anyone yet read "Ghost Fleet", the new novel by national security analysts August Cole and P.W. Singer. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/07/06/commentary/world-commentary/failure-of-new-u-s-weapons-systems-may-be-more-than-science-fiction/ and http://www.ghostfleetbook.com

 

[sublight_]

Then, Chinese scientists discover a massive natural-gas deposit in the Mariana Trench. This new source of energy means China can divorce itself from its old trading partner.

Ugh. What is cheaper, go to war with the USA or just start cranking out solar panels?
The book supposes all our high tech programs are duds and will be our doom. Regardless of the F35 program cost, it will be catastrophically lethal, once evolved into its final form. Yes, there is definitely bloat in defense department spending, as there is in ALL government spending, but to say we are not conflict effective is completely ludicrous. We have hundreds of thousands of scientists doing extremely sophisticated design, test, and analysis across thousands of programs. Statistically there could be a fault in some of them, but that percentage of failure is already factored into overall platform numbers. You would think the "subject matter experts" writing this book would know that.

But this is all moot. We are already at war with China, in Cyberspace. That is where the real war of the future is being waged.

 

[Rhinocrates]

Interesting read with a number of insights and creative ideas, but it was still locked in to a scenario of relatively symmetrical, state-versus-state war. It's debt to Tom Clancy is too obvious and dates it.

It would be more interesting as a work of futurology if it looked at say conflict between states and state-like entities, 'maskirovka' - 'masked war' or a 'warm war' over resources in the Arctic.

A TED talk by policy analyst Bernadetta Berti here sums up why fighting ISIS is going to be a protracted affair and why its going to require different thinking. In short, you can't fight the Mafia or a cult with railguns.
https://www.ted.com/talks/benedetta_berti_the_surprising_way_groups_like_isis_stay_in_power?language=en

Notes on masked war here:
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/nato-is-acting-like-its-1985-63a54c2c4ad2

War is Boring can be a bit shallow, but a search will bring up more material:
http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/are-we-prepared-for-hybrid-warfare/
http://www.economist.com/node/21643220/print


Indeed, there is a fictional exploration of hybrid war, by one 'Natan Dobuvitsky', whose real name is Vladislav Surkov, former Deputy Prime Minister and current chief advisor to Vladimir Putin.
http://cutyourteeth.co/2015/01/01/without-sky-how-a-dystopian-short-story-was-russias-model-for-war/

Peter Pomerantsev, who spent several years in Russia has written this profile of Surkov:
http://cutyourteeth.co/2015/01/01/without-sky-how-a-dystopian-short-story-was-russias-model-for-war/


It (and a related nonfiction book, 'Nothing is True, Everything is Possible') deals more with how internal control is exercised, but as Orwell wrote, War is Peace - and hybrid war is the expansion of politics.

 

[Triton]

Published on Jul 29, 2015

P.W. Singer and August Cole talk about their new thriller, in which America's navy fights back against a Chinese invasion of Hawaii with the support of hackers, venture capitalists and an eccentric Australian billionaire.

https://youtu.be/SMj82FB42WA

 

[Grey Havoc]

Interesting read with a number of insights and creative ideas, but it was still locked in to a scenario of relatively symmetrical, state-versus-state war. It's debt to Tom Clancy is too obvious and dates it.

On the other hand, what's 'old is new again'. A lot of (indeed if not all) the new certainties have proven to be mirages or otherwise dead ended, all too often after increasingly irreplaceable time, money and resources were expended on what were supposed to be 'sure bets' (e.g. X-33/VentureStar, Future Combat Systems).

 

[Triton]

"Interview: 'Ghost Fleet' imagines a harrowing, realistic future of world war"
military 14 August 15 by Gian Volpicelli

Source:
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-08/14/ghost-fleet-interview

 

[Triton]

"Is War With China Avoidable?"

Ghost Fleet author Peter W. Singer answers some frequently asked questions
By Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer Posted July 1, 2015

Source:
http://www.popsci.com/talking-ghost-fleet-qa-author-peter-w-singer

 

[Triton]

It would be more interesting as a work of futurology if it looked at say conflict between states and state-like entities, 'maskirovka' - 'masked war' or a 'warm war' over resources in the Arctic.

A TED talk by policy analyst Bernadetta Berti here sums up why fighting ISIS is going to be a protracted affair and why its going to require different thinking. In short, you can't fight the Mafia or a cult with railguns.
https://www.ted.com/talks/benedetta_berti_the_surprising_way_groups_like_isis_stay_in_power?language=en

Notes on masked war here:
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/nato-is-acting-like-its-1985-63a54c2c4ad2

War is Boring can be a bit shallow, but a search will bring up more material:
http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/are-we-prepared-for-hybrid-warfare/
http://www.economist.com/node/21643220/print


Indeed, there is a fictional exploration of hybrid war, by one 'Natan Dobuvitsky', whose real name is Vladislav Surkov, former Deputy Prime Minister and current chief advisor to Vladimir Putin.
http://cutyourteeth.co/2015/01/01/without-sky-how-a-dystopian-short-story-was-russias-model-for-war/

Peter Pomerantsev, who spent several years in Russia has written this profile of Surkov:
http://cutyourteeth.co/2015/01/01/without-sky-how-a-dystopian-short-story-was-russias-model-for-war/


It (and a related nonfiction book, 'Nothing is True, Everything is Possible') deals more with how internal control is exercised, but as Orwell wrote, War is Peace - and hybrid war is the expansion of politics.

Very interesting links, thank you Rhinocrates.

 

[jsport]

Interesting read with a number of insights and creative ideas, but it was still locked in to a scenario of relatively symmetrical, state-versus-state war. It's debt to Tom Clancy is too obvious and dates it.

It would be more interesting as a work of futurology if it looked at say conflict between states and state-like entities, 'maskirovka' - 'masked war' or a 'warm war' over resources in the Arctic.

A TED talk by policy analyst Bernadetta Berti here sums up why fighting ISIS is going to be a protracted affair and why its going to require different thinking. In short, you can't fight the Mafia or a cult with railguns.
https://www.ted.com/talks/benedetta_berti_the_surprising_way_groups_like_isis_stay_in_power?language=en

Notes on masked war here:
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/nato-is-acting-like-its-1985-63a54c2c4ad2

War is Boring can be a bit shallow, but a search will bring up more material:
http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/are-we-prepared-for-hybrid-warfare/
http://www.economist.com/node/21643220/print


Indeed, there is a fictional exploration of hybrid war, by one 'Natan Dobuvitsky', whose real name is Vladislav Surkov, former Deputy Prime Minister and current chief advisor to Vladimir Putin.
http://cutyourteeth.co/2015/01/01/without-sky-how-a-dystopian-short-story-was-russias-model-for-war/

Peter Pomerantsev, who spent several years in Russia has written this profile of Surkov:
http://cutyourteeth.co/2015/01/01/without-sky-how-a-dystopian-short-story-was-russias-model-for-war/


It (and a related nonfiction book, 'Nothing is True, Everything is Possible') deals more with how internal control is exercised, but as Orwell wrote, War is Peace - and hybrid war is the expansion of politics.

thank you Rhinocrates.

 

[Zeppelin]

Thanks for adding to the debate & thoughts on the book.
[/size]Reading other histories on WW2 technological development - and on the speed aircraft designs were generated in WW1 - it always strikes me that no one can predict exactly what would succeed or what would fail. Other than developments, and rapid needs, suddenly gets talent and energy focused. Plus, politically and industrially connected personalities often emerge to assist or push "out of the blue" solutions in the shortest timeframe possible.
[/size]Well that is where my hope always resides.
[/size]The time lines, in months for WW1 aircraft could never be repeated now that factors like recent design and software complexities and other oddities like algorithm integration are factored in - R&D breakthroughs would always seem to generate a cost blow out and public rage. I don't see many such cost blow outs recorded or publicised in times of conflict. Has anyone ever costed (Fully) the Manhattan Project, from the theoretical pre war and pre project years to the end, even before the move to and building Los Alamos, or factoring the B-29 Silverplate delivery system.
[/size]Maybe the books whole premise was that human ingenuity may be the salvation in its creative use - and consider that previously funded development may not fit the rapid change of future conflict demands.
[/size]Apologies for the ramble.