Flashpoint - Cold War gone hot, 1948

Gentleman’s Astronautics

Gentleman’s Astronautics

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Just came across Operation Downfall, and was pondering. What might be the political situation that would warrant the plan coming to fruition? What projects would be pursued and put into production, and what wouldn't? Who would win the war?

Perhaps the 3rd world war would be caused by a breakdown of relation with the East over the Berlin Airlift? Stalin sees it as the West undermining his stake in Berlin, and so mobilises troops to put a halt to the operation? Perhaps in a "checkpoint Charlie" scenario?

Would communist sponsored revolutions in imperial countries become more common? A USSR sponsored Malayan Emergency would be disastrous for the British Empire, and it is likely that Britain would have to call for US support?
 
It is discovered Russian Intelligence has access to sensitive fields. The Red Atomic Bomb is being assembled. And the evidence is considered in a different way to conclude Nationalists will fail in China and a 10 million man army across the Soviet borders will not happen. Even worse, that 10 million man army can march on India. Given enough time for Russia repair damage of WW2. That time is not given with surprise Atomic attacks on multiple Russian cities.
 
okakac said:
It is discovered Russian Intelligence has access to sensitive fields. The Red Atomic Bomb is being assembled. And the evidence is considered in a different way to conclude Nationalists will fail in China and a 10 million man army across the Soviet borders will not happen. Even worse, that 10 million man army can march on India. Given enough time for Russia repair damage of WW2. That time is not given with surprise Atomic attacks on multiple Russian cities.
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An atomic surprise would be much less of a surprise if the A-Bombs were to be delivered via bombers, as the ICBM or just true ballistic missiles with atomic payloads hadn’t been invented yet.

So an atomic strike on the Soviet capital, followed by an all out ground offensive by the fledgling NATO, perhaps with *ahem* unorthodox reinforcement, as dictated by operation unthinkable, would be on the cards.
Or, alternatively, the A-bombs would be used only if the ground offensive bogged down as a means of ending the war quickly without a prolonged conflict. Plus this also means that the weird and wacky ideas tossed around in the west and east at the time have the opportunity to be produced
 
Soviets are unlikely to be capable of intercepting bombers. Even the MiG-15 is not in service yet. No NATO as well. I think initial US plans against USSR was for a war of two years with hundreds of nuclear weapons expended. Only America can start a new war, America will go nuclear from Day One. For this scenario to work, meaning a war of multiple years with new designs there has to be internal problems within the West, to stop American resources making an early decisive impact. This is derived from the unjustified attacks on the cities which will add "Church" to the list of public enemies. If the use of Nazis as equal members in an enterprise about invading Russia has been justified, it is quite possible all sorts Leftist dissent would have been crushed with extraordinary measures.

To prolong the clashes long enough to provide the venue for discussion of new aircraft types. F7U Cutlasski defeating Swifts over the Communist D-Day beaches in Kent in September 1950. A bit more justice delivered against a certain type of Germans would have been good,
 
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Essentially both sides are very poorly prepared for the conflict.

okakac said:
Soviets are unlikely to be capable of intercepting bombers.
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Well, there are Mig-9, so it would at least be capable of intercepting B-29 and B-50. Maybe not very reliably, but still.
 
okakac said:
to stop American resources making an early decisive impact.
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If I recall, there was post-war Nazi Terrorist policy called “werewolves”, or something to that effect, who killed troops and blew up buildings from what I recall, but they weren’t that good at doing it. If they were more efficient, then perhaps it might prove enough of a hindrance for the US to have to divert their attention towards these jumped up terrorists, and squash them
 
There are various boardgames on this subject but many are out of print.

You may want to start here

boardgamegeek.com

Stalin's World War III

Alt History. What if Stalin had attacked in Europe and/or Middle East in 1953?
boardgamegeek.com boardgamegeek.com
 
Dilandu said:
Essentially both sides are very poorly prepared for the conflict.


Well, there are Mig-9, so it would at least be capable of intercepting B-29 and B-50. Maybe not very reliably, but still.
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Don't forget the 717 Yak-15/Yak 11s and the La-150 - LA-160 series (that could have been placed into production), both of which were contemporary with the MiG-9 (610 built).
 
Gentleman’s Astronautics said:
good point. How would the B-29s be able to cope with being intercepted with jet fighter I wonder?
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Without jet fighter cover - which would be impossible to organize at any reasonable depth (1st and 2nd generation jet fighters weren't exactly long-legged) - probably not good. The losses in conventional bombing missions against well-defended cities would most likely be debilitating. On the other hand, much of USSR territory, including almost all Siberia between Ural and Far East, wasn't exactly well-defended.

To summarize:

* USAF would probably have significant superiority anywhere their jet fighters could reach from bases in Britain, Italy and Japan. Most of Central and Eastern Europe could be carpet-bombed with acceptable losses (including railroad nodes, which probably would be priority tarjets in attempt to slow down Soviet land forces advance)

* USAF would probably be able to launch nuclear attack mission (flown by few high-speed B-29 and B-50 bombers) against the well-defended cities of USSR and Eastern Europe (such as Leningrad, Kiev, Warsaw) and Far East (Vladivostok), but conventional bombing attacks outside American jet fighters range would be debilitating.

* Most of Siberia and Middle Asia regions could be attacked with little risk. The main problem for USAF would most likely be distances from friendly bases and navigation - as well as lack of understanding what exactly they are supposed to be attacking. American intelligence about USSR in late 1940s was extremely limited, and CIA was only making things worse.
 
Gentleman’s Astronautics said:
If I recall, there was post-war Nazi Terrorist policy called “werewolves”, or something to that effect, who killed troops and blew up buildings from what I recall, but they weren’t that good at doing it. If they were more efficient, then perhaps it might prove enough of a hindrance for the US to have to divert their attention towards these jumped up terrorists, and squash them
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There weren't. There were some clumsy attempts to prepare stay-behind guerilla cells on German territories during the last months of the war, called "Operation Werewolf", but their scope was limited. On the other hand, Nazi propaganda immensively overblown those efforts, trying to persuade the Allies that there is "hidden army" ready to strike their rears. As well as "Alpine Redoubt", nothing like that ever existed, and it was only a futile Nazi attempts to stall the advance of Allied forces.

P.S. Nazi leadership never actually even considered any kind of "remnant" plan. Hitler was adamant that World War 2 is Germany uiltimate test, and if Germans failed this test, then they demonstrate themselves as "inferior race" and what would happens with them afterward is irrelevant. Other Nazi leadership, even if they have different views, did not dare to argue with increasing insane Adolph about such core points of Nazi doctrine; so even if they made any plan for post-war situation, those were plans of personal survival (i.e. "hide with enough gold, then sneak to Argentina"), not for some kind of all-German uprising.
 
Dilandu said:
There weren't. There were some clumsy attempts to prepare stay-behind guerilla cells on German territories during the last months of the war, called "Operation Werewolf", but their scope was limited. On the other hand, Nazi propaganda immensively overblown those efforts, trying to persuade the Allies that there is "hidden army" ready to strike their rears. As well as "Alpine Redoubt", nothing like that ever existed, and it was only a futile Nazi attempts to stall the advance of Allied forces.

P.S. Nazi leadership never actually even considered any kind of "remnant" plan. Hitler was adamant that World War 2 is Germany uiltimate test, and if Germans failed this test, then they demonstrate themselves as "inferior race" and what would happens with them afterward is irrelevant. Other Nazi leadership, even if they have different views, did not dare to argue with increasing insane Adolph about such core points of Nazi doctrine; so even if they made any plan for post-war situation, those were plans of personal survival (i.e. "hide with enough gold, then sneak to Argentina"), not for some kind of all-German uprising.
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What would be the alternative then to prevent US equipment making a more decisive impact, allowing for a longer war?
 

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