FAA’s NextGen (ADS-B) a dead end?

[Grey Havoc]

http://news.yahoo.com/why-faa-4-1b-nextgen-201500078.html

“With NextGen capabilities fully operational, we will be able to provide many more options for rapidly reconfiguring our facilities,” FAA administrator Michael Huerta told a conference in Chicago.

Federal auditors, however, aren’t so sure. They say the project, which is hundreds of millions of dollars over budget and is years behind schedule, isn’t worth the trouble. “Ultimately, FAA determined that the total costs for the current ADS-B [NextGen] program, including funding that has been spent, now outweigh the projected benefits of the program by as much as $588 million,” according to the latest Inspector General report.

NextGen – or ADS-B, as it’s often called – will eventually shift the U.S. ground-based air traffic control system to a satellite-based system. The project in theory is supposed to cut costs by using GPS technology to save time, fuel and money, as well as curb traffic delays. Auditors, though, say any cost savings are unclear.

The FAA estimates it will cost about $4.5 billion through 2035 – about $400 million more than original estimates. And, like other government estimates, the IG warns the price tag could climb even higher.

Many airlines aren’t equipping their planes with the required new technology, which tells pilots where they are in relation to other aircrafts, thus making it safer to fly closer together. Airlines are hesitant to invest given the uncertainty about the program; the spate of scathing federal audits aren’t helping.

Moreover, watchdogs have been warning of potential problems for years. In 2009 the FAA’s IG told Congress that the project’s costs, schedule and benefits were all “uncertain.” The IG described delays in approving new procedures and technology as well as pushback from the airlines, which have been hesitant to invest in the equipment. Then, in 2011, the Government Accountability Office released a report raising similar concerns about the project’s increasing costs and delays.

 

[sublight_]

What? You know almost everything in the sky has ADS-B on it already? How do you think flight aware works? The next gen FAA system may be a piece of crap, but ADS-B transponders are here to stay.

 

[gtg947h]

What? You know almost everything in the sky has ADS-B on it already? How do you think flight aware works? The next gen FAA system may be a piece of crap, but ADS-B transponders are here to stay.

Umm, not even close, especially the bolded part. In fact, the FAA is already going into "generate panic and threaten" mode telling light aircraft operators "you aren't equipping fast enough, and you'd better do it so you're ready for 2020... or else." They claim they just don't understand why everyone hasn't bought it already... but it's actually pretty darn simple why.

Full 2020-deadline-compliant ADS-B Out installations require a TSO'ed GPS source and an appropriate transponder. This allows the aircraft to transmit its position directly. Relatively few aircraft are equipped with this because it's pretty expensive to do so. It's more expensive in absolute terms for larger aircraft, but the cost is small relative to the cost of the aircraft. For light piston aircraft, it's much worse. Until very recently, equipping a certified piston single with a 2020-compliant ADS-B installation could run the owner $10,000--on an airplane that might only be worth $30-40k. The equipment costs have come down recently, but (excluding homebuilts) an STC or other approval, plus the labor of a certified shop, is required for installation. A TSO'ed GPS unit alone is a couple grand. And I'd be willing to bet that less than 10% of the GA piston fleet is ADS-B equipped.

Now, one can purchase an ADS-B In receiver for far less, hook it up to a tablet device, and get weather (and maybe traffic, I'm not sure). That information isn't being broadcast by all the other aircraft (though it can come from ADS-B equipped aircraft); it's being broadcast by ground stations that repeat both ADS-B Out traffic, and traffic picked up by traditional transponder radar. That's what you're seeing on flightaware.


More reading:
http://www.avweb.com/blogs/insider/ADS-B-Does-It-Sharpen-the-Have-and-Have-Not-of-Aviation-222611-1.html

 

[sublight_]

Most of the commercial transportation, which makes up the majority of daily air traffic has ADS-B. I'm sorry you cant afford to put one on your Cessna....

 

[Aeroengineer1]

That is a poor response to the issue at hand. The sad part of this is that the electronics needed to do this only cost a few hundred dollars. In fact, for ~$20 and some software, you can receive thee signals. This just goes to show you the antiquated state of regulations, tort laws, and groups that may be profiteering from this.

Despite this, to disparage general aviation is extremely short sighted. It is through general aviation aircraft that professional pilots are able to get sufficient time to be able to get their airline jobs. It also allows for mail to get to more rural communities much faster. There are many other benefits that have come from propeller powered aircraft. The continued assault on them through regulation has priced it out of possible for many individuals that might otherwise have benefited from it.

 

[sublight_]

That is a poor response to the issue at hand.

You are assuming that I am saying it as a condescending comment. I am not. I lived in the age of "a Cessna for everyone". There was, during the 60's and 70's a veritable legion of general aviation airports absolutely blanketing this country. I have sadly, watched their numbers get decimated year after year. I patiently waited for the technological breakthrough or regulatory relief that would bring general aviation back with a vengeance but it never came.

My hope is that after autonomous vehicles completely dominate the highways that someone will get the bright idea to do that with general aviation in a major way.

 

[Dragon029]

It'll be interested to see what the FAA does with trying to fit autonomous aircraft into NextGen; ie at what weight / capability class will transponders be required, etc.

 

[F-14D]

That is a poor response to the issue at hand.

You are assuming that I am saying it as a condescending comment. I am not. I lived in the age of "a Cessna for everyone". There was, during the 60's and 70's a veritable legion of general aviation airports absolutely blanketing this country. I have sadly, watched their numbers get decimated year after year. I patiently waited for the technological breakthrough or regulatory relief that would bring general aviation back with a vengeance but it never came.

Unfortunately, a geat deal of back door politics and money changin hands, along with ever-present lawsuits in which the US leads the world ("We're # 1! We're # 1"!) is killingairports. The stories of Meigs Field in Chicago and El Toro MCAS in Orange County California, are instructive.

Ambulance chasing lawyers also served to drastically cut back General Aviation. The prospect of being sued over something that happens in a plane you built 45 years ago forced almost all single engine GA aircraft out of production. To given an example, liability insurance got so bad for manufacturers that Beech acknowledged they essentially had to add the cost of an entire Bonanza to every King Air in order to spread the premium costs around. It wasn't until legislation finally passed (which was held up for years by Members in the pockets of the trial lawyers) that some single engine and a few light twins came back.

Technologically, there were improvements, but not enough to overcome the enormous costs of certification. The numbers just didn't add up given the rate planes are produced vs. the costs of regulatory compliance on a new design. LSA was the last hope, but with average costs well exceeding $100,000 it was clear that there weren't going to be any new aircraft that could bring the cost of ownership down to what the average person would be willing to spend. That was one of the reasons Cessna abandoned the Skycatcher. We might have gotten more people flying via LSA except for some reason the max weight allowed was set at a value 300 lbs. too low so that all those !50/152s, Tomahawks and Skippers out there couldn't qualify for recertification in the LSA category. Who knows; maybe that was done to protect the fledgling LSA industry. While the new LSAs use more advanced tech, you could still buy one of those three aircraft, pretty much match their performance if not their style, and even if it required a complete refurbishment still spend less than half the cost of a new LSA.

That's another reason we've lost so many airports. It's one thing when you've got 30 planes based at your field, it's another when there's only five.

 

[F-14D]

two commentaries

http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/commercial/NextGen-Implementation-Prompts-Congressional-Review_83197.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2957526&hq_l=10&hq_v=dd506208b8#.VDKu21dqExt

http://www.avweb.com/blogs/insider/Why-The-Secrecy-Around-ADS-B-222853-1.html