Grey Havoc

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The contentious deal that Somaliland has struck with Ethiopia to lease a strip of land near the entrance to the Red Sea would help “secure freedom of navigation” for international shipping that has faced attacks around the vital waterway, according to the breakaway country’s president.

Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but has failed in its long-standing quest for global acceptance, signed the accord in January that swapped access territory on the Gulf of Aden in return for formal recognition from landlocked Ethiopia.

But Somalia has vehemently opposed the deal, with its president declaring that “not an inch” of its territory would be signed away by anyone.

Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi told the Financial Times that the Ethiopia accord would “allow Somaliland to support international efforts to secure freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea”, where vessels have come under repeated assaults in recent months from Houthi rebels backed by Iran.

Ethiopia’s blueprint for the land around Berbera included a port and fleet that would help fend off maritime threats, he suggested. “Ethiopia will build a naval military base and have commercial ships and in exchange Ethiopia will give us recognition — that’s the basics,” said Bihi Abdi.

[snip]

Ethiopia has sought access to the coast ever since the 1993 split with Eritrea left it landlocked. It views the Somaliland deal as a way to alleviate its dependence on Djibouti for sea access, although the US, EU, Arab League and Egypt — which has a dispute with Ethiopia over a huge dam on the Blue Nile — have warned that the plan could escalate conflict in a region already battered by terrorism and war.

A senior Ethiopian official involved in the Somaliland talks said he was “optimistic” that an final agreement would materialise, adding: “It’s just a matter of realpolitik and necessity.” Omar Mahmood, senior analyst for Eastern Africa with Crisis Group, said that while the deal had created significant “blowback”, Ethiopia did not want to “completely give it up”.
(ft.com, registration or subscription may be required)


 
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Furthermore, while maritime security concerns do exist across the region, incidents of piracy and recorded acts of terrorism may not fully justify the urgent need for Ethiopia to develop a naval force. As Somali people we fully understand that Ethiopia does not need navel base for its economic growth but to develop its power to influence the region and becomes regional hegemony. We, Somalis, we don’t see any benefit for us for Ethiopia to establish Navel base. In contrary, it is very dangerous to our national security and sovereignty. To that end, we will never allow a navel base in our seashores.

BY FARAQURUX
 

ADDIS ABABA, March 20 (Reuters) - Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Thursday that his government would not seek conflict with longtime foe Eritrea over access to the Red Sea, after regional officials and experts warned of a possible war between the Horn of Africa neighbours.

"Ethiopia does not have any intention of engaging in conflict with Eritrea for the purpose of gaining access to the sea," Abiy said, according to a post by his office on X.

Though access to the Red Sea was an existential matter for landlocked Ethiopia, his government wanted to address it peacefully via dialogue, Abiy added.

[snip]

I am a fair bit sceptical about that statement.
 

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