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If you are looking from the outside in, sure you may have some doubts. But those that have an inside look at the DoE know that there has been a lot of work far beyond computer simulations, that has been done to make sure the US nuclear arsenal is safe and reliable. That the general public might not know the true extend of the work is by design. We do NOT need to go back to nuclear testing and if we did so, it would help our rivals who don't have as developed a test program, far more than it would help us. And "decades without manufacture, serious development" is demonstrably false.