Britain without Mrs Thatcher: a place for harmony or discord?

[uk 75]

Mrs Thatcher's election as Leader of the Conservative Party was a close run affair in 1975. It was quite possible that the Tory party grandees would have succeeded in blocking her election and opting for a "traditional" type such as Willie Whitelaw.

Although the Callaghan Government had run itself into the sand by 1979 it is also possible that an old fashioned style of Conservative leadership would have left Jim Callaghan enough room to to get back into power. Whitelaw or similar would not have been able to woo the Essex Man vote and this would have been sufficient to stop a swing to the Tories, while the Liberals might have done better.

Under the guidance of the International Monetary Fund and with an experienced Denis Healey at the Treasury the financial cuts imposed on the Government would not have been dissimilar to those under Geoffrey Howe. However, the relationship with the Trades Union movement would have moved in a different direction.. more to follow

 

[Archibald]

We would have missed Jacques Chirac biggest blunder ever.

February 1988, Brussels. Harsh negociations over the agriculture budget. Chirac was somewhat pissed off Thatcher and says
"qu'est ce qu'elle veut de plus cette mégère, mes couilles sur un plateau ?"
which may translate as
"what does this old shrew wants now, my balls on a plate ?"
Unfortunately the micro was ON and everybody enjoyed the delicate sentence. Which in turn triggered a major media firestorm.

My humble opinion on Thatcher is as follow. One may hate her, but my limited understanding of late-70's British politics led me to understand that Michael foot and the trade unions were as much on the left as Thatcher ended on the right.
Bottom line: poor Great Britain was bound for some difficult times, one way or another.

How did British politics ended so polarized ?

The Bennites were demanding revenge for what they considered to be the betrayals of the Callaghan government. They called for replacement of MPs who had acquiesced to Callaghan's policies by left-wingers who would support unilateral nuclear disarmament, withdrawal from the Common Market, and widespread nationalisation.

Even Mitterrand 1981 program was not that radical. AFAIK Mitterrand never suggested disbanding the nuclear triad nor getting out of Europe.

 

[uk 75]

In part 1 above I set out a possible alternative 1979 without Mrs Thatcher.

The Callaghan administration contained some very experienced ministers and a cabinet might have looked like this at the top

PM James Callaghan
Chancellor of the Exchequer Denis Healey
Home Secretary Shirley Williams
Foreign Secretary David Owen
Defence Secretary Roy Mason
Trade and Industry Tony Benn

While the IMF and Denis Healey would have imposed cuts on Government the two main issues facing the Government would have been the Trades Unions and Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs would have been similar to what happened under the Conservatives but without the heat. Callaghan had already agreed with President Carter in principle to go for Trident, though David Owen and the RAF might have tried to push the Ground Launched Cruise Missile (GLCM). The Falklands dispute might never have happened as both Callaghan and Owen had experience of Argentine posturing and would have reacted sooner than Lord Carrington ( who was focussing on the Middle East at the time). Although Owen was not popular with the Foreign Office his close relationship with the PM would have prevented the splits that happened with Mrs Thatcher.

The biggest problem facing the Labour Party however would have been its Left Wing and the Unions. However, Callaghan and his Ministers would not have been a soft touch. Apart from Tony Benn Ministers were sound on the need to control extremists like Arthur Scargill and encourage a new generation of more moderate Union Leaders. The leadership battle would have been between pragmatic politicians like David Owen, Shirley Williams and Denis Healey. Without a Thatcher figure to galvanise the Left Michael Foot and co would have been excluded from power and moderate Trade Unionists would have prevailed.

More to come

 

[uk 75]

Part 3 of my alternate 19 70s 80s without Mrs T

If Government unifies, Opposition brings discord. The Conservatives found Opposition intolerable. The redoubtable Enoch Powell, who had moved to Northern Ireland after Ted Heath sacked him from the Shadow Cabinet over Immigration had found a new cause in the 1970s-Opposition to Europe. Many Tories agreed with him. Without Mrs Thatcher's charismatic figure (she resigned from Parliament after her defeat in 1975 an returned to Industry) Enoch Powell became the totem for the Conservative right. By contrast the Heath moderates found little blue water between themselves and the Callaghan government.

Shirley Williams emerged from the leadership elections of 1982 as a the candidate least offensive to the left and right wings of the Labour Party. Her conciliatory tone and strong record of loyalty to the Labour Party allowed to beat David Owen (too sharp) Denis Healey (too old) and Tony Benn (too extreme).
The Williams administration knew that North Sea Oil and Gas would start to allow the Government to begin the kind of investment that had not been possible in the cash strapped 70s. Its manifesto for the 1983 General Election offered British voters a future in Europe drawing on the success of neighbours like Scandinavia and the Netherlands as well as Germany. Shirley Williams proved to be a much stronger leader than her "messy hair" image suggested. In fact she could rival James Callaghan's firside chats to the nation for avuncular charm. The Tories by contrast appeared increasingly mad, with Enoch Powell challenging Michael Heseltine for the party leadership after a 4th General Election defeat in a row. In what Shirley Williams called the "shortest suicide note in history" the Tories chose Powell.

 

[Stargazer]

I think it's certainly not the best place to tackle political subjects, especially without any direct connection with aviation...

My sole comment is this: politicians like Thatcher exacerbate the left vs. right divide, turning our society into a bipolar one. Instead of being offered a whole range of greys in between, we are led to believe by our leaders that there can only be two options to choose from: us or they, good or bad, conservative or labour, Republican or Democrat, and so forth.

We certainly don't want a plethora of tiny parties with ridiculous programs and stands, such as happened after the opening of the East European block... But having a two-headed society can only lead to strong discontent and a reinforcement of rhetorical politics instead of responsible politics. Just my two cents...

 

[Antonio]

Margareth Thatcher isn't a relevant topic for this forum and a serious candidate to be locked in the next hours...

 

[uk 75]

Stargazer

I appreciate your concern about the sensitivity of the political aspects of this topic but I think exploration of alternate history based on what we know from our own history is a reasonable topic for Bar. I have tried to paint a picture of an alternative UK in the 70s and 80s not to praise or criticise Mrs Thatcher but to allow us to explore alternatives in a calm and sesnsible manner.

I pick out some examples from my alternate world.

David Owen's criticism of Trident and views in favour of Cruise are well known. Equally we now know from Peter Hennessy's book on the British Nuclear Deterrent that Callaghan and Carter were likely to agree on Trident.

Both Owen and Callaghan described their handling of an earlier Falklands crisis in the 70s and I think it reasonable for this discussion to assume they would have done the same in 1982. I am not criticising the real world actions of Mrs Thatcher simply offering an alternative reality.

Enoch Powell is a highly charged political figure. He is the subject of a fascinating alternate history story (if England had won the World Cup in 1970) and I know from personal experience that many who supported Mrs Thatcher in 1975 were hoping that Powell would return to the Conservatives once Heath had been ousted.

A Shirley Williams administration is only one of a number of possible outcomes for a Callaghan post 1979 government but it offers the most interesting alternative to the Thatcher approach. Williams was a pro European multilateral disarmament Atlanticist (as were David Owen and many others).

I hope that you see what I am trying to do.

 

[bobbymike]

I like politics as much as the next person and have made political statements at SP DIRECTLY related to an aerospace project, sometimes like 'Dumb Democrats weaken the US' ;D but I digress.

That said this topic I find completely irrelevant EVEN for the bar. Engaging in speculation like this may make a good debate topic for political junkies but for SP not at all.

 

[Justo Miranda]

Clonation,please! :'(

 

[Grey Havoc]

Were there any British projects of the late '70s that could have been used as the basis of a GLCM program?

 

[robunos]

Well, no Thatcher Government means no Westland Affair...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westland_affair

cheers,
Robin.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

I'll refrain from singing "Ding dong the witch is dead" at this point.

I can't see the purpose of this topic unless we link it to how a non-Thatcher government would have influenced military/aerospace development. The topic as stands is too far off topic and into areas of political speculation for its own purpose.