Brexit

[gwiz]

We now know that Airbus isn't happy about the possibility of the UK leaving the EU, but can anyone confirm/deny the rumour I've heard that if we leave, Rolls-Royce are planning to relocate to Germany?

 

[sferrin]

What would be the benefit there?

 

[shedofdread]

Can sources be cited? I ask because of this....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33146011

Airbus chief executive Fabrice Bregier has said he has "no intention" of pulling manufacturing out of the UK if the country votes to leave the European Union (EU).

 

[gwiz]

Here's a source for Airbus being unhappy about Brexit:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/04/airbus-executives-brexit-warning-letter-uk-eu

...it makes good economic sense to stay inside the EU. Should the British electorate have a different view then clearly we wouldn’t cease our activities in the UK, which are highly important and very prominent. However, our business model is entirely based on our ability to move products, people and ideas around Europe without any restriction and we do not believe leaving will increase the competitiveness of our British-based operations. We all need to keep in the back of our minds that future investments depend very much on the economic environment in which the company operates.

Rolls-Royce was a rumour I heard from someone in the industry.

 

[Arjen]

That would depend on the nature of any future association treaty between the EU and the UK.

 

[alertken]

JFCF: you can't (though you have) say that because...we just don't know, and that goes for almost every utterance on this distracting, unnecessary Referendum.

Businesses do what (seems on the day to their Board) to be a good idea to the benefit of their Co. UK has no inalienable right to supply wings to Airbuses, and MBB, CASA, have tried at times to get in there. Tom Enders is trying very hard to cause Airbus SE to be run as a business, repelling politicians trying to tell him to put what, where. EU Competition Law - market distortion - opposes State Aid, so, in or out, GKN/BAES would win or lose on merit.

RR has hefty businesses in Germany, US and elsewhere. Like all other UK-based businesses trading worldwide, they will initiate Options Review in the event of Brexit, cursing the while that we all have much more pressing things to do. During 2017 the minds of Germany and France will be on their own Elections: nobody will place any priority on dealing with stroppy Brits. We will not know for years, maybe decades, what quotas, tariffs, constraints may, or may not apply to parts bolted together in Toulouse, Seville and Hamburg, sourced from Wales - which will presumably be matching the Scots in revisiting Independence, to stay on their EU Regional Cohesion gravy train.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it - as POTUS might say this week.

 

[kaiserd]

Actually we do know. Anyone involved in business in the last 20 years knows that the EU is essentially irrelevant in terms of defining the location of manufacturing facilities. Airbus being a perfect example, its supply chain has been growing outside the EU not contracting to within it's boundaries.

The empty threats from companies acting under orders from the Brussels regime are just that, empty. Whilst I don't doubt that the EU will attempt to exert ever greater levels of authoritarian control over the people and entities that it already subjugates companies are for now still globalising their presence not containing it to one tyrannical bloc.

Very balanced, reasonable view of the EU. Tyrannical authoritarian control? Seriously WTF.
You might disagree with the companies stating that Brexit will hurt them and hurt the overall economy of the UK and of the EU.
You might think that is a price worth paying.
But to state they don't believe it and are being coerced to say it is either very dishonest or very delusional.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

I can see this topic getting locked very quickly.

 

[Orionblamblam]

I can see this topic getting locked very quickly.

Can someone at least shoehorn Trump and Putin in there first?

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

A weak win for the 'in' campaign will just encourage the anti-Europe block to try again, and again. The only plus from my perspective is the the Tory party may finally crumble to pieces in the aftermath, whatever the result.

 

[Michel Van]

On Airbus
There biggest problem there Production facility are scattered over Europe, do political meddling.
what let to that Britain aerospace build the Wings & engines and France build fuselage and other, while factory in Germany, France or Spain assembly the Airplanes together.
This logistic let to errors and failure, the A400M is best example of that problem.

On Brexit
I understand that British want to leave EU
in Begin the EU was good idea, but thanks to insane bureaucratic of European Commission, it's become a absurd Nightmare
Instead of help integration EU members on europeans Tax or copyright laws. they come with Kafkaesque overregulation
and willful waste of Money with out account or control.
that list is to long, but here some Insanity:

To configurate one billion euro/year in european tobacco plantations, then destroy the produce tobacco, do Anti-tobacco regulation and low quality of this tobacco.
The edict for introduction of Cooling-fluid R1234yf for Climate protection, R1234yf is toxic and highly inflammable, refuse by German car industry and insurance.
Million of euros were wasted on "Standard on curvature of Europan Bananas" this no Joke.
And i can go on with this long list
But i end on TTIPS the free-trade agreement, the European Commission want so much,
The small print in Agreement offer multinational to sue at european court, member States to changer there laws in there favor.

That is not EU i want to live in !
so Britons, do it like Dutchman Vote No !

 

[muttbutt]

The elected leader of the UK has to go to the EU and the German Chancellor to beg to be allowed to make minor adjustments to UK welfare policy, most of which he doesn't get. The EU regularly ignores the outcomes of referendums and spends taxpayers money without obvious account. So yes, its an authoritarian tyranny.

Where? ???

 

[Arjen]

so Britons, do it like Dutchman Vote No !

I am Dutch. The Dutch referendum on April 6th was about the association treaty between the Ukraine and the EU, 90% of which was about facilitating trade between Ukraine and the EU. The rest of the treaty dealt with political reforms and international cooperation, aimed primarily at reducing corruption in Ukraine and improving its judicial system.

I voted in favour of it. My country is a small country, highly dependent on international trade and needs to cooperate with others countries to further its interests, a minnow between very big fish.

Many of the anti-treaty campaigners freely admitted they were not interested in this treaty, but simply wanted to give the EU a bloody nose.

They have succeeded. I will freely admit some voters genuinely voted against the treaty, but some of the reasons they offered I found unpalatable:
- the notion that we shouldn't aggravate Russia any more than it already is by allowing Ukraine to develop close ties with the EU
- the notion that Ukraine is within the Russian region of influence, and should remain there, never mind what the Ukrainians want
- the notion that there was no majority in Ukraine in favour of the treaty

The first two I strongly disagree with, the third one is plainly false.

I believe a brexit will leave both the UK and EU weaker. Europe is facing problems which are best solved in cooperation, to weaken international cooperation just at this moment seems dangerous to me.

The UK has the right to leave the UK, should do so if that is the way the voters decide.

*Don't* expect EU-UK relations to be business-as-usual after that. The UK will need an association treaty with the UK and vice versa - consider the relation Switzerland has with the EU: to trade with the EU, it has to accept most of the European trade rules, without having any say in them. That is what awaits the UK, should it leave the EU.

 

[Arjen]

During 2017 the minds of Germany and France will be on their own Elections: nobody will place any priority on dealing with stroppy Brits. We will not know for years, maybe decades, what quotas, tariffs, constraints may, or may not apply to parts bolted together in Toulouse, Seville and Hamburg, sourced from Wales - which will presumably be matching the Scots in revisiting Independence, to stay on their EU Regional Cohesion gravy train.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it - as POTUS might say this week.

Quite so.

 

[JFC Fuller]

The European constitution is the prime example of the EU's contempt for voters, it was roundly rejected by multiple countries, the EU simply turned it into the Lisbon treaty and enacted it anyway.

 

[Arjen]

An act of gross stupidity by the member states that had a referendum.
I still believe that, on balance, we're better off inside the EU than outside. The EU should have more democratic checks and balances than it now has, but that can only be with the member states transfering some of their powers to the EU.

 

[Orionblamblam]

The European constitution is the prime example of the EU's contempt for voters, it was roundly rejected by multiple countries, the EU simply turned it into the Lisbon treaty and enacted it anyway.

See, here's the thing I don't get. The United States Constitution plus 27 amendments is about 7,600 words long. Whether you love it or hate it, think it should be changed or left inviolate, the fact is that a 7,600-word constitution (or about 25 pages at 300 words/page) serves the US well. It's evidence that you don't *need* more than that, and you could get by with substantially less (two of the amendments just simply cancel each other out, others incorporate changes that could be worded back into the Constitution, etc.). But the Treaty of Lisbon seems to be more than *ten* times longer (270 pages).

???

If nothing else, that's just inefficient, sloppy engineering.

 

[fredymac]

The definition of a political entity composed of distinct national identities with different languages and cultures is an empire. In the past, this meant a dominant group within the empire imposed their will and collected tribute. A fully implemented “United States of Europe” will be an interesting test on the fundamental nature of human beings both individually and collectively. That is, assuming the current fissures already formed and growing don’t abort the “ever closer union” before it achieves fruition.

 

[Brickmuppet]

Can someone at least shoehorn Trump and Putin in there first?

Well, OK.

Putin is clandestinely pushing the Brexit to weaken the EU aerospace sector which, having to renegotiate contracts as a result of the resulting secession will be unable to conduct the research and development necessary to stay competitive in the face of the Russian aerospace industry's upcoming surprise. You see, Putin has secured all the secret working patents and prototypes of Burnelli's designs which, as we all know, were suppressed by those corrupt industrialists opposed low speed, low altitude flight. Between this and his soon to be revealed investment in Coleopteres, Putin will corner the aerospace industry and thereby bypass the sanctions. Trump, who, of course, is being financed by Putin to simultaneously take out the U.S. Aerospace industry, is interested in the Brexit mainly to facilitate his acquiring the Isle of Wight via eminent domain, in order to secure its extensive chalk deposits, which will be crucial to his presidential campaign's chalk smuggling operations on college campuses. A potential spanner in this elaborate scheme is the recent Chinese salvage (under the pretense of island building)of the Japanese submarine I-29 from which they were able to recover nazi saucers armed with weaponized theremins and powered by hafnium isomers which they hope will allow them to leapfrog the aforementioned Russian advancements.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

If nothing else, that's just inefficient, sloppy engineering.

Isn't that the definition of bureaucracy?

I work with a few expat Brits here in Australia. A pretty diverse lot in terms of their cultural backgrounds. From Eastend Ghanaians to very posh Uni of Edinburgh alum Scottish Lairds. But every single one of them is united in their utter contempt of the EU and their strong desire for a Brixit.

 

[mz]

It would be an interesting experiment. Would Britain have import tariffs for EU products then, and EU then the same? With something like 70% of British export being to EU... I guess Britain could negotiate one on one arrangements with the countries as well, if they don't like someone in particular. I've also gotten the impression of the country that London's financial sector has a lot of influence on decisions being made there.

Some Brits also seem to think their country is very special, which, I'm sure, nobody else ever does. Trying to extract personal concessions "or else I'm leaving" gives a good impression to others, I'm sure as well.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Putin is clandestinely pushing the Brexit to weaken the EU aerospace sector which, having to renegotiate contracts as a result of the resulting secession will be unable to conduct the research and development necessary to stay competitive in the face of the Russian aerospace industry's upcoming surprise. You see, Putin has secured all the secret working patents and prototypes of Burnelli's designs which, as we all know, were suppressed by those corrupt industrialists opposed low speed, low altitude flight. Between this and his soon to be revealed investment in Coleopteres, Putin will corner the aerospace industry and thereby bypass the sanctions. Trump, who, of course, is being financed by Putin to simultaneously take out the U.S. Aerospace industry, is interested in the Brexit mainly to facilitate his acquiring the Isle of Wight via eminent domain, in order to secure its extensive chalk deposits, which will be crucial to his presidential campaign's chalk smuggling operations on college campuses. A potential spanner in this elaborate scheme is the recent Chinese salvage (under the pretense of island building)of the Japanese submarine I-29 from which they were able to recover nazi saucers armed with weaponized theremins and powered by hafnium isomers which they hope will allow them to leapfrog the aforementioned Russian advancements.

Yeah, yeah, everybody knows that.

 

[Gridlock]

If nothing else, that's just inefficient, sloppy engineering.

Isn't that the definition of bureaucracy?

I work with a few expat Brits here in Australia. A pretty diverse lot in terms of their cultural backgrounds. From Eastend Ghanaians to very posh Uni of Edinburgh alum Scottish Lairds. But every single one of them is united in their utter contempt of the EU and their strong desire for a Brixit.

One might suggest selection bias here, seeing how they all fled the country themselves?

Personally I don't see much difference between being 'ruled' from Brussels, or from London, or from Buckingham Palace. Except the EU pretty much ended european fascism, codified human rights law and other little things like that, so on balance why not.

 

[sferrin]

Except the EU pretty much ended european fascism, codified human rights law and other little things like that, so on balance why not.

And what about "refugee" disaster going full tilt?

 

[Orionblamblam]

Except the EU pretty much ended european fascism, codified human rights law and other little things like that, so on balance why not.

Weren't those things realities *before* the Treaty of Lisbon? How many fascist states signed on and became free market paradises?

 

[Arjen]

Portugal, Spain and Greece were dictatorships in the early seventies and before. Long before, in the case of Portugal and Spain. When they became democracies, negotiations to join the then EEC started in earnest.

 

[Hood]

I don't generally respond to political topics on forums like these but as a Brit I feel I must say something on this topic.
To my mind this is a totally unnecessary and ill-conceived referendum that need never of happened but for the generally unruly Eurosceptic element which is large and always has been and always will be. Both sides have chucked around various buzzwords and hazy promises of streets paved with gold but neither side offers any credible plans or convincing arguments based on rational facts. The Brexit mob see it as a panacea cure-all for all of Britain's ills. The Remain camp point to the doom of the unknown. The truth is its hard to put your finger on anything positive the EU offers to convincingly clinch the remain vote. It does good work and we get investment back, I work in the Higher Education sector, universities rely on European research funding, the building I work in was funded by EU development funding and area I live in (the North West of England) has probably among the highest EU investment. Yet its clear the government haven't asked for funds and other help its entitled to, either because they prefer a Scrooge-like outlook or because its easier to blame the EU for its own failures.

As to aerospace or marine or military technology related aspects, Britain's co-operation with Europe pre-dates its entry into the EEC. Seeing as BAE Systems now has a strong presence in the US I can't see it effecting them too much. Rolls-Royce and Airbus will stay. The truth is the big corporations and international trade are transcending even structures like the EU, they are not bothered where they reside if they can get a good tax break. I feel the Eurosceptic Tories have cottoned onto this quicker than most. I don't think the Brexit folks really realise how much of Britain's industries are foreign-owned now (certainly most of our utilities and infrastructure is), the recent Tata steel issue highlighted it but nobody pointed out Tata also own Jaguar Land Rover for example and the same things could happen again if it decided to build them overseas.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

One might suggest selection bias here, seeing how they all fled the country themselves?

Immigrants "flee" expats live outside their country temporarily for work reasons.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Political topics. Not really a good idea.