Its possible without alien space bats, but takes a revitalized timeline as opposed to a single point of divergence, something most people are not willing to realize through research. I would say most people expect one event or one super weapon, one assassination or one decision to change things dramatically, when the reality is that wars are all cause and effect on a grand scale--very rarely can one single thing change the outcome of something so interconnected. To make a realistic timeline, extensive cause and effect needs to be taken into account and factored into what takes place--except we cannot reasonably assume the response or outcome of these changes across the board at all times--and so, comes the guessing game. All we can do is guess based on x, y and z. I started a timeline like this, whereby I started in 1830, in order to realistically and historically alter the playing field of 1913/14. It took reevaluating dozens of treaties, secret treaties, minor wars, international scandals, assassinations, minor political figures, historical coincidences, minor expeditions, land disputes, historical catastrophes, specific autobiographies, etc., and tying them together in different ways, with different outcomes to create the cause and effect necessary to change things within a reasonable time scale. Having to guess within reason how a people, or a ruler, think about a given thing, is the hardest aspect to pick up on.I don't see how you could do this without going full Alien Space Bats.
I would say most people expect one event or one super weapon, one assassination or one decision to change things dramatically, when the reality is that wars are all cause and effect on a grand scale--very rarely can one single thing change the outcome of something so interconnected.
You are missing the point here. My point is there is a lot more going on in the bigger picture. Sure, a huge number of trucks alone is a big deal... except what would have to change to necessitate that divergence? You cannot just say so-and-so decrees this, or so-and-so buys this, and bam, because if it were that simple, why did that not take place to begin with? Where does the fuel for those trucks come from? The increased raw materials to build them? The factory infrastructure? Then you have to factor in how that would change the dynamics of the war with the addition of that many trucks. Would that mean more tanks are being built? More planes? More weapons? More ships? What difference would that make? If that were the case would any of the battles prior had happened at all, or happened the way they did? In addition, would you need something for those trucks to transport? Weapons? Men? Then factor in what about the enemies' response would be, would they increase production, would they outbuy raw materials available on the world market, would they buy from foreign manufacturers... and on and on ad nauseum.I once read (I think in one of Len Deighton's non-fiction books) that in 1940 and 1941 Britain produced ~100,000 and ~110,000 trucks and Germany produced ~80,000 and ~88,000.
There's your single, war-winning, super-weapon right there!
If Britain built ~100,000 trucks for ~50 divisions then Germany needed to build ~500,000 trucks for ~250 divisions. Even on simple total war potential numbers Germany should have built 40% more trucks than Britain.
You are missing the point here. My point is there is a lot more going on in the bigger picture. Sure, a huge number of trucks alone is a big deal... except what would have to change to necessitate that divergence? You cannot just say so-and-so decrees this, or so-and-so buys this, and bam, because if it were that simple, why did that not take place to begin with? Where does the fuel for those trucks come from? The increased raw materials to build them? The factory infrastructure? Then you have to factor in how that would change the dynamics of the war with the addition of that many trucks. Would that mean more tanks are being built? More planes? More weapons? More ships? What difference would that make? If that were the case would any of the battles prior had happened at all, or happened the way they did? In addition, would you need something for those trucks to transport? Weapons? Men? Then factor in what about the enemies' response would be, would they increase production, would they outbuy raw materials available on the world market, would they buy from foreign manufacturers... and on and on ad nauseum.
That is a simple breakdown of what I am getting at. Historical fiction does not have to always be Turtledove and Dick in how they approach such changes i.e. the divine intervention you mention. What I am talking about is actually studying the timeline of events, in this specific case for OP, the interwar period, possibly even further to WW1, or even prior, and really digging. As I said earlier in relation to my own work, reevaluating dozens of treaties, secret treaties, minor wars, international scandals, assassinations, minor political figures, historical coincidences, minor expeditions, land disputes, historical catastrophes, specific autobiographies, etc. The changes do not necessarily need to be broad nor do they have to effect millions of people--they can but do not have to--at the same time multiple things in sequential order, or at random, can effect other things, or each other, to create the cause and effect necessary to achieve said results. Butterfly effect, snowball effect, etc. Its not simple, else we do stray into alien space bats because convenient solutions are preferred to intricate ones. All I am saying is that people expect a+b=c in developing a cause and effect scenario more they do rationalizing the Euler–Maclaurin formula, if that makes sense. I choose the latter.altering millions of decisions by millions of people to 'do better' requires the intervention of the supernatural.
That is a simple breakdown of what I am getting at. Historical fiction does not have to always be Turtledove and Dick in how they approach such changes i.e. the divine intervention you mention. What I am talking about is actually studying the timeline of events, in this specific case for OP, the interwar period, possibly even further to WW1, or even prior, and really digging. As I said earlier in relation to my own work, reevaluating dozens of treaties, secret treaties, minor wars, international scandals, assassinations, minor political figures, historical coincidences, minor expeditions, land disputes, historical catastrophes, specific autobiographies, etc. The changes do not necessarily need to be broad nor do they have to effect millions of people--they can but do not have to--at the same time multiple things in sequential order, or at random, can effect other things, or each other, to create the cause and effect necessary to achieve said results. Butterfly effect, snowball effect, etc. Its not simple, else we do stray into alien space bats because convenient solutions are preferred to intricate ones. All I am saying is that people expect a+b=c in developing a cause and effect scenario more they do rationalizing the Euler–Maclaurin formula, if that makes sense. I choose the latter.
I agree wholeheartedly. Understanding something that interconnected is mind boggling; it is the sort of area of expertise that takes years of explicit study and many, many references sources--though even that does not guarantee total coverage. I still do not fully have a grasp on the history of European colonization of Africa as a example. Redrawing the map and thusly everything that happened to make it so, is a lot to unfold. There is so much crisscrossing history to digest--but then compared to WW1, the former is only a lesser aspect of a much wider geopolitical sphere at play. The rabbit hole only deepens.The vast, interconnected nature of things is why I believe people gravitate to panaceas.
Very fair assessment.Personally, I prefer to identify points in history where the deterministic aspect converge to where things hinge on the decisions of the smallest group of people, this is even better when there is a lot of deterministic weight behind these decisions so a single decision can have an outsized impact. Post Suez Britain has a number of these inflection points, most notably the 1957 Defence White Paper, but there are others in that era.
I partially agree. There are some things that cannot change without a great deal of build up, yes. Perhaps for example the bombing of Pearl Harbor. That had been set in motion for a few decades at the least, if you do not count events prior to WW1. It was inevitable that Japan would wage war against the US. However, that is not say something like Operation Barbarossa being launched on time (without the impromptu invasion of Yugoslavia) is a divergence of equal breadth. Truly though, in regards to industry capability of the Axis powers, I will agree with you there--aside from German synthetic fuel production... I digress, I have long thought about the topic of rebalancing Germany's capacity to make panzers before 1939, as well as Japan's capacity to train pilots on a larger scale, and while I came up with a satisfying answer for both, it was not without its intricate buildup. I think I went back to the early 20s to get my desired results.WW2 does not have these convenient points with regard to industry capacity etc, which is compounded by a zig or zag on the battlefield making little difference as well, the US will always get the A-bomb. In contrast WW1 has numerous situations where a zig or zag might have outsized impacts.
May I have some clarification. Do you mean defeat the Allies by September 1940 or all the changes have to be by September 1940?Make them able to totally defeat Britain, it's empire and the Soviet Union (also China for the Japanese) while keeping the US at bay
Not that again, the What if NAZI win the War...
True.Under 1940s situation, the NAZI were unable to win WW2, what happened.
One of biggest issue is lack of Manpower in Wehrmacht, they attack USSR with 3 million men.
Stalin trow everyone to frontline were 2 Russian face one German in 1941
At 1945 for each German soldier came 4 Russian soldier to kill him.
True, again.Second issue is Political meddling into War
Hitler Micromanaging the War effort,
Göring was high on Drugs.
Minister of War was the Speer an Architect working for Hitler megalomania buildings !
Himmler was fanatic delusional, but murderous efficient.
I'd disagree here.Manufacturing
The Third Reich was not effective, inflexible, focus more on quality instead of quantity.
Hitler was stun how much the USA and USSR could produce and trow into Battle.
like the 10000 Panzer vs 35000 T-34 Tank build from Tractor parts or the 49324 M4 Shermans Tanks.
T-34 use Diesel or fuel oil to drive, M4 Sherman used low grade Gasoline
while Wehrmacht, Luftwaffe and SS were fighting for last high-octane gasoline reserve in 1944.
Waste of resources
As Soviets came closer to Third Reich and British and USA bomb them into Stone age ( Hitler must declare War to US of A )
Started the Nazi a frantic development for Wunderwaffen in hope to turn the tide.
Allot of that Stuff was Vaporware, others just waste of time like V3-Canon or French V2 bunkers.
build nearly completed then bomb into oblivion.
Thanks to SS, the V2 Rocket production killed more people as it use on battle field,
End 1944 the German industry run out of resources for production.
five months later the remains of Third Reich capitulated to Allies.
I agree to an extent. There were some very interesting concepts, prototypes and pre-production weapons / vehicles for WW1; they saw little to no use, because the war did not go beyond 1918. At the same time WW2 has its interesting points of divergence, and its points of convergence, that can be utilized if one were to look hard enough... whether or not you want to is up to you. I have a hard enough time getting past the lead up to WW1 and the war itself due to the sheer library of information I am digesting. I have not yet invested myself fully into the interwar and WW2 beyond my cursory archival stuff. I guess my point is that the interesting stuff is usually hidden, lost or so obscure that it takes years to find--if you know where to look that is.WW2 is a mixed bag for me, the toys are awesome but strategically it's uninteresting as the Germans had no chance of winning.
In contrast WW1 is endlessly fascinating because the Germans had a good chance of winning. However the toys aren't as interesting, apart from the battleships.
o_0The big difference between WW1 and WW2 is that WW1 could have been won on the battlefield whereas WW2 couldn't.
I posted this comment in the wrong place
Post in thread 'Sealion 19?' https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/sealion-19.44494/post-771318
Better phrasing hahaIt's probably more accurate to say in WW1 victory could be set up on the battlefield, whereas this is perhaps impossible in WW2.
Make them able to totally defeat Britain, it's empire and the Soviet Union (also China for the Japanese) while keeping the US at bay
The main difference is that in WWI young people got themselves killed enthusiastically and in WWII no one wanted to go to the front.The big difference between WW1 and WW2 is that WW1 could have been won on the battlefield whereas WW2 couldn't.
OMG NAZI Space Lasers!Make them able to totally defeat Britain, it's empire and the Soviet Union (also China for the Japanese) while keeping the US at bay
Doenitz didn't want to start a war before 1945, not before allowing a force of 300 U-boot to be built.Germany did not have the maritime capacity to cover everything, it would only have been able to obtain good results with the Type 21 U boat if the war had started in 1941.