Alternate History Discussion : The Soviets Get To The Moon Before The Americans & (What If : Operation Gallop Was A Success ?)

TheRejectionist

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In my thread What If : Operation Gallop Was A Success ? I "made" the Soviets reach up until Belgium, consecutively they take the overwhelming majority of scientists that would get into Operation Paperclip. What would need to happen for the Soviets to reach the Moon before 1969? Would the German minds be of help ?


I am making this thread since I am not knowledgeable on spacecraft or anything related to it, since my career choice has been cooking then teaching English and I understand more about folklore than I do with space vehicles.
 
Nothing good for US or NATO, that's for sure. Losing the earlier stages of space race already seriously harmed American technological credibility. Apparent (not always actual, to be exact, but public tended to stuck to simplified solutions) superiority of Soviet space technology raised the worrying question: if Soviets are so good in space rockets - which at this time was a pinnacle of technological development! - then in what else they are good also?

And this question was important. If Soviets are better than American in space technology, then they are most likely also better in military technology. And if Soviets are so much better better in military technology - then American ability to provide protection to its allies became increasingly doubtful. A significant part of US-NATO safety assurance was based on the superiority of Western military technology over the superior numbers of Soviet weaponry. If Soviets actually have not only more weaponry, but also better weaponry - then the NATO's safety assurance actually became a death trap, and France, who bolted out, was actually the smartest one here.

So the basic consequences of America's losing Moon Race:

* Serious fragmentation of NATO: more nations went the French way, either quitting organization, or limiting their participation

* Serious loss of USA international credibility: America would be forced to negotiate from much less privileged position and American safety assurances would be viewed much more skeptically.

* Serious damage to the American's population self-esteem and sence of superiority: most likely much more severe strife between generations (for young peoples, who dreamed about space exploration, the situation would looks like "American way of life failed us")

On the bright side, US would most likely not be willing to massively committ to Vietnam War in such situation, and American troops would be removed from Southern Vietnam much earlier.
 
Nothing good for US or NATO, that's for sure. Losing the earlier stages of space race already seriously harmed American technological credibility.
*Maybe.* Douglas, Aerojet, Martin and North American had credible designs for orbital rockets within a few years of the end of the war, no need for Germans. What the Germans - especially von Braun - were *really* good at was PR. They were able to convince people, public and politicians, that *they* had the secrets of spaceflight in their grasp, and they ended up in positions of authority, sweeping native American efforts aside.

Had the Soviets scooped up the von Braun team, the US *might* have been able to leverage the work they'd already doen to launch an Aerojet powered, NAA-designed and built High Altitude Test Vehicle into orbit in the early 1950's. A hydrogen powered SSTO in the early 50's would have kicked the tires of technological development harder and faster than rockets that were modest improvements on the V-2.
 
Maybe the late-60s Soviets could have convinced gullible elements of Western media and populaces that they had superior technology. Even if the Soviets had gotten to the Moon first, though, there was plenty of evidence to the contrary to be judged objectively. History of fission weapon development vs. espionage/theft, history of fusion weapon development vs. espionage/theft, numbers of patents, numbers of peer reviewed hard-sciences papers published, numbers of accredited-degreed engineers and physicists, numbers of top ranked engineering and science university departments, GDP comparison, etc. No objective comparison could have validly arrived at a conclusion that the Soviets could have other than a momentary and circumstantial lead over the West.
 
No objective comparison could have validly arrived at a conclusion that the Soviets could have other than a momentary and circumstantial lead over the West.

Problem is, that Western public is no more objective than anyone else. Its gullible and prone to rushing to conclusions. Also, problem is, that USSR have quite a good shroud of secrecy in 1950s-1960s, which made actual evaluation of its technological capabilities very problematic and complex. So basically its "Russians on the Moon! America failed again!" vs "A statistical analysis of the fragmentary data available allowed us to make this diagram that with 0.75 probability demonstrate that Soviet Union probably have less advantage..."
 
Had the Soviets scooped up the von Braun team, the US *might* have been able to leverage the work they'd already doen to launch an Aerojet powered, NAA-designed and built High Altitude Test Vehicle into orbit in the early 1950's.
Possible. But we are discussing the consequences of Soviet Union winning the Moon Race, which is more about solving the organization problems that plagued Soviet moon program, rather than engineers.
 
Had the Soviets scooped up the von Braun team, the US *might* have been able to leverage the work they'd already doen to launch an Aerojet powered, NAA-designed and built High Altitude Test Vehicle into orbit in the early 1950's.
Possible. But we are discussing the consequences of Soviet Union winning the Moon Race, which is more about solving the organization problems that plagued Soviet moon program, rather than engineers.
Let's say the Soviets got the von Braun team, and he was as successful with the Soviets as he had been with the Americans... instead of being monkeys on the Soviet team, the Germans end up *running* the Russian program, sidelining Korolev and Chelomey and such. On the other side, the US doesn't get the Germans, so Douglas and NAA (doubtless with a major PR campaign run by newly-minted Commodire Heinlein) end up in a race to build the US Air Force and Navy their World Circling Spaceship and High Altiutude Test Vehicle, and the US launches a Buck Rogers Decoder Ring into orbit in, say, 1952. Will that not spur the Soviets to get moving? Perhaps it would scare the pants off Stalin the way Sputnik spooked Eisenhower, and the Soviets charge ahead... and land on the moon in 1963, using something like the original (von Braunian) Apollo-Nova Direct approach while the US is futzing around building space stations and large, more sustatinable but higher up-front-cost lunar infrastructure in LEO.
 
Let's say the Soviets got the von Braun team, and he was as successful with the Soviets as he had been with the Americans
Nah, Soviet policy was to use German cadres only until our own would catch up. Even if we get Von Braun, he would be employed only till R-7 program at most, then sent home.

More realistic scenario for Soviet lunar victory is that public opinion of Von Braun as "ex-Nazi criminal" would prevent his employment by NASA. Without his vision, NASA would most likely took much more time figuring out what exactly moon rocket should be. If Korolev also would be able to consolidate Soviet lunar program under his bureau, then it may be possible.

The problem of this scenario is, that US victory in lunar race was actually two-sided: it was based both on NASA gerculean efforts, and Soviet lack of coherence about lunar program. So it required two points of divergence, for both sides.
 
Perhaps it would scare the pants off Stalin the way Sputnik spooked Eisenhower, and the Soviets charge ahead... and land on the moon in 1963, using something like the original (von Braunian) Apollo-Nova Direct approach
Hardly possible, I'm afraid. The direct Earth-Moon-Earth flight would create too many engineering challenges to overcome by early 1960s. More likely is some kind of multiple launch scheme, but it required either automatic docking ability (which was very challenging problem), or USSR deciding to switch to the manual control as main means of piloting spacecrafts (while USSR preferred automatic).
 
I asked twitter.com/sinemi_ about my idea/scenario of a timelie , he replied with this : Hitler dying in 1943 means Von Braun's projects getting shadowed by the crisis, which means no advancement in V2/A4 program. You can fix this issue by pushing the date towards Late 1944 or 1945.

Probably should be relevant that Stalin dies in 1948 (instead of 1953, I personally don't see it as an unrealistic since the URSS leader never was a paramount of healthy habits to begin with AND especially after Barbarossa) and the Soviet hardline and "reformist/progressive" factions choose Mikoyan as a "middle ground" / compromise leader.

Nothing good for US or NATO, that's for sure. Losing the earlier stages of space race already seriously harmed American technological credibility. Apparent (not always actual, to be exact, but public tended to stuck to simplified solutions) superiority of Soviet space technology raised the worrying question: if Soviets are so good in space rockets - which at this time was a pinnacle of technological development! - then in what else they are good also?

And this question was important. If Soviets are better than American in space technology, then they are most likely also better in military technology. And if Soviets are so much better better in military technology - then American ability to provide protection to its allies became increasingly doubtful. A significant part of US-NATO safety assurance was based on the superiority of Western military technology over the superior numbers of Soviet weaponry. If Soviets actually have not only more weaponry, but also better weaponry - then the NATO's safety assurance actually became a death trap, and France, who bolted out, was actually the smartest one here.

So the basic consequences of America's losing Moon Race:

* Serious fragmentation of NATO: more nations went the French way, either quitting organization, or limiting their participation

* Serious loss of USA international credibility: America would be forced to negotiate from much less privileged position and American safety assurances would be viewed much more skeptically.

* Serious damage to the American's population self-esteem and sence of superiority: most likely much more severe strife between generations (for young peoples, who dreamed about space exploration, the situation would looks like "American way of life failed us")

On the bright side, US would most likely not be willing to massively committ to Vietnam War in such situation, and American troops would be removed from Southern Vietnam much earlier.
On Vietnam, in my timeline there is no such thing, the Operation Masterdom is even more successful and the Viet Minh are crushed in their (ideological) cradle.
Nothing good for US or NATO, that's for sure. Losing the earlier stages of space race already seriously harmed American technological credibility.
*Maybe.* Douglas, Aerojet, Martin and North American had credible designs for orbital rockets within a few years of the end of the war, no need for Germans. What the Germans - especially von Braun - were *really* good at was PR. They were able to convince people, public and politicians, that *they* had the secrets of spaceflight in their grasp, and they ended up in positions of authority, sweeping native American efforts aside.

Had the Soviets scooped up the von Braun team, the US *might* have been able to leverage the work they'd already doen to launch an Aerojet powered, NAA-designed and built High Altitude Test Vehicle into orbit in the early 1950's. A hydrogen powered SSTO in the early 50's would have kicked the tires of technological development harder and faster than rockets that were modest improvements on the V-2.
@Orionblamblam the part about the Douglas, Aerojet, Martin and NA seems interesting! It could be also the reason for why (besides getting all the German brains) the Soviets get earlier. I imagined that with German experts the Soviets would launch earlier (in my work, December 1956).

Had the Soviets scooped up the von Braun team, the US *might* have been able to leverage the work they'd already doen to launch an Aerojet powered, NAA-designed and built High Altitude Test Vehicle into orbit in the early 1950's.
Possible. But we are discussing the consequences of Soviet Union winning the Moon Race, which is more about solving the organization problems that plagued Soviet moon program, rather than engineers.
Let's say the Soviets got the von Braun team, and he was as successful with the Soviets as he had been with the Americans
Nah, Soviet policy was to use German cadres only until our own would catch up. Even if we get Von Braun, he would be employed only till R-7 program at most, then sent home.

More realistic scenario for Soviet lunar victory is that public opinion of Von Braun as "ex-Nazi criminal" would prevent his employment by NASA. Without his vision, NASA would most likely took much more time figuring out what exactly moon rocket should be. If Korolev also would be able to consolidate Soviet lunar program under his bureau, then it may be possible.

The problem of this scenario is, that US victory in lunar race was actually two-sided: it was based both on NASA gerculean efforts, and Soviet lack of coherence about lunar program. So it required two points of divergence, for both sides.
I really see HARD the Germans (the defeated party in WW2) sidelining any Soviet scientist. I am thinking that they would be consultants, advisers, instructors and the like.
 
I doubt that they would be allowed any level of public recognition. Furthermore, the Von Braun group made an active effort to not get caught by the Soviets on this timeline, seeking out the Americans; would things be any different in this alternate scenario?
Also, with Europe basically being 'taken off the map' by such as crushing Soviet victory, would there even be the same urgency towards a manned lunar mission as we witnessed; or even manned spaceflight whatsoever?
 
I asked twitter.com/sinemi_ about my idea/scenario of a timelie , he replied with this : Hitler dying in 1943 means Von Braun's projects getting shadowed by the crisis, which means no advancement in V2/A4 program. You can fix this issue by pushing the date towards Late 1944 or 1945.
Good point. If I recall correctly the A-4 only made its first flight in the first half of that year. The Soviets would have to find the answers to all the problems on their own anyway.
 
I doubt that they would be allowed any level of public recognition. Furthermore, the Von Braun group made an active effort to not get caught by the Soviets on this timeline, seeking out the Americans; would things be any different in this alternate scenario?
Also, with Europe basically being 'taken off the map' by such as crushing Soviet victory, would there even be the same urgency towards a manned lunar mission as we witnessed; or even manned spaceflight whatsoever?
I asked twitter.com/sinemi_ about my idea/scenario of a timelie , he replied with this : Hitler dying in 1943 means Von Braun's projects getting shadowed by the crisis, which means no advancement in V2/A4 program. You can fix this issue by pushing the date towards Late 1944 or 1945.
Good point. If I recall correctly the A-4 only made its first flight in the first half of that year. The Soviets would have to find the answers to all the problems on their own anyway.
@phantonphan I am thinking of a scenario similar to what @Dilandu thought in his own timeline here Italian Fotobomba (AH, 1945) meaning a better peace deal for Italy (without Mussolini though) and if Hitler tries to pull an Operation Achse it fails.
 
They had their own Germans but didn't really use them.

They were of little use, to be frank. Soviet engineers quite soon overtook Germans in all areas....
Even if we get Von Braun, he would be employed only till R-7 program at most, then sent home.
I always looked at R-7 being a much greater leap over V-2 than V-2 was over Goddard's largest rocket.

I am so very thankful the nukes were heavy in the USSR.

Now if I could just go back in time and break the neck of whoever invented the microchip---and rocket gigantism would continue.
Oh how that puny Delta II enraged me---such a crutch.

The microchip should have been invented on a Moonbase.

Now I wonder if Von Braun might have smoothed things over with Korolov and Glsushko...that might have been his greatest contribution.
 
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They had their own Germans but didn't really use them.

They were of little use, to be frank. Soviet engineers quite soon overtook Germans in all areas....
Even if we get Von Braun, he would be employed only till R-7 program at most, then sent home.
I always looked at R-7 being a much greater leap over V-2 than V-2 was over Goddard's largest rocket.

I am so very thankful the nukes were heavy in the USSR.

Now if I could just go back in time and break the neck of whoever invented the microchip---and rocket gigantism would continue.
Oh how that puny Delta II enraged me---such a crutch.

The microchip should have been invented on a Moonbase.

Now I wonder if Von Braun might have smoothed things over with Korolov and Glsushko...that might have been his greatest contribution.
@publiusr I am having an hard time following you. Unfortunatly for myself I am an Humanities student and not a smart like others on the forum... Even researching what you say with Google, Brave, DuckDuckgo I am still confused except maybe about Korolov and Glsushko.
 
I am having an hard time following you.

He wants large rockets for the sake of large rockets, and imagines that if history had been different so that nukes and computers never became "small" or "light, then rockets would have had to remain large to launch them. This would of course have had the effect of driving the cost of space launch far higher than in our timeline, so the end result would have perhaps been larger rockets, but far fewer of them. Somewhat like if Earth had been slightly more massive, making it more difficult to attain orbit.
 
I am having an hard time following you.

He wants large rockets for the sake of large rockets, and imagines that if history had been different so that nukes and computers never became "small" or "light, then rockets would have had to remain large to launch them. This would of course have had the effect of driving the cost of space launch far higher than in our timeline, so the end result would have perhaps been larger rockets, but far fewer of them. Somewhat like if Earth had been slightly more massive, making it more difficult to attain orbit.
So... a scenario like the Fallout franchise in dumb man's terms?
 
They had their own Germans but didn't really use them.

They were of little use, to be frank. Soviet engineers quite soon overtook Germans in all areas....
Even if we get Von Braun, he would be employed only till R-7 program at most, then sent home.
I always looked at R-7 being a much greater leap over V-2 than V-2 was over Goddard's largest rocket.

I am so very thankful the nukes were heavy in the USSR.

Now if I could just go back in time and break the neck of whoever invented the microchip---and rocket gigantism would continue.
Oh how that puny Delta II enraged me---such a crutch.

The microchip should have been invented on a Moonbase.
No microchip, no Minutemans and more money goes to the Air Force and military and not NASA. No micro chips, no Apollo guidance computer and no lunar landing. No Apollo program, no moon base.

The only benefit of no microchip would be no PC's and internet and hence no inane posts from publiusr spamming sites with love of big rockets.
Big rockets don't enable exploration or exploitation of space. Cheap rockets do.

Delta II was the best thing that happened to space science in the 1990's and 2000s. Allowed more missions and more bodies to be visited. It was far from a crutch; it was a strong base to build a robust space science "industry". More missions, more organizations running missions, more organizations developing instruments, more people working in the field.
 
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They had their own Germans but didn't really use them.

They were of little use, to be frank. Soviet engineers quite soon overtook Germans in all areas....
Even if we get Von Braun, he would be employed only till R-7 program at most, then sent home.
I always looked at R-7 being a much greater leap over V-2 than V-2 was over Goddard's largest rocket.

I am so very thankful the nukes were heavy in the USSR.

Now if I could just go back in time and break the neck of whoever invented the microchip---and rocket gigantism would continue.
Oh how that puny Delta II enraged me---such a crutch.

The microchip should have been invented on a Moonbase.

Now I wonder if Von Braun might have smoothed things over with Korolov and Glsushko...that might have been his greatest contribution.
Actually, the Saturn V did more to harm your vision.
LOR and Saturn V is what stunted manned space exploration. With EOR and small Saturns, we would be further along.

Heavy Soviet nukes helped the US. The USSR had to waste resources building large ICBMs with their large missile sites when smaller ones could do the job.
 
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They had their own Germans but didn't really use them.

They were of little use, to be frank. Soviet engineers quite soon overtook Germans in all areas....
Even if we get Von Braun, he would be employed only till R-7 program at most, then sent home.
I always looked at R-7 being a much greater leap over V-2 than V-2 was over Goddard's largest rocket.

I am so very thankful the nukes were heavy in the USSR.

Now if I could just go back in time and break the neck of whoever invented the microchip---and rocket gigantism would continue.
Oh how that puny Delta II enraged me---such a crutch.

The microchip should have been invented on a Moonbase.

Now I wonder if Von Braun might have smoothed things over with Korolov and Glsushko...that might have been his greatest contribution.
Actually, the Saturn V did more to harm your vision t

Actually, LOR and Saturn V is what stunted space exploration. With EOR and small Saturns, we would be further along.

Blame Houbolt (a little) and most importantly - JFK d*ck showing contest with the Soviets "Mine is bigger, it can pee as far as the Moon !"

Houbolt LOR was the right way to proceed in the context of JFK "before this decade is out". But the latter was a deeply flawed approach.

Maybe that kind of long range plan would have been a little more sustainable over the long term.

I would draw the line at the Saturn C-2. J-2 maybe, but no F-1. Payload 25 -30 mt, enough for a Zond like Apollo Block I flyby from the space station. Landing would take a handful of C-2 with EOR, sometime in the 1970's. It would take "only" four Saturn C-2 to match payload of one C-5 (because 4*30 = 120).
I did the math once, two Centaurs could drag a Block II CSM into low lunar orbit.
Most importantly, going to the Moon via EOR and what von Braun in 1962 called the "tanking mode" would help going to Mars later: Mars and asteroid and Venus and triple planetary flybys first, then onwards to Mars: SML-1, Phobos, Deimos.

1*Saturn C-2 = lunar flyby Apollo
3*Saturn C-2 = lunar orbit Apollo
4*Saturn C-2 = lunar landing through EOR
 
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Segmented solids on the Saturn 1B might have equaled those perhaps.
No, the Saturn IB did not exist at the time of the EOR and LOR debate. The Saturn IB was conceived at the same time as the Saturn V in 1962. Plus Saturn IB with SRMs would be more expensive.
 
Soviet engineers should have trid a two point strategy to reach moon than a single shot direct to moon given the fact that NK33 engines were not ready on time.Simply go to space first and hang there and then go to moon .
 
Had Korolev died in Kolyma, an all hypergolic rocket program with Glushko and Chelomei would have streamlined things. Yangel's R-56 replacing N-1 and Energia both? Had Glushko been THE man, instead being the second string quarterback-things may have been different. No Mishin, no competition. Valentin Petrovich would have lifetime control.
 
Had Korolev died in Kolyma, an all hypergolic rocket program with Glushko and Chelomei would have streamlined things. Yangel's R-56 replacing N-1 and Energia both? Had Glushko been THE man, instead being the second string quarterback-things may have been different. No Mishin, no competition. Valentin Petrovich would have lifetime control.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/kolymas-shadow-an-alternate-space-race.314576/reader/ there is an individual who DID speculated on it. @publiusr was Korolev that vital to the space race (from Sputnik to his death) ?
 
He did have a way about himself. Many may have found Glushko a bit off-putting. But once the ball is rolling-having one person in charge of a nation's space effort for a lifetime? That is best, perhaps. Leaders come and go...above you-but you keep the vision. Zak and Siddiqi are the Naftali and Caro of space history.
 
He did have a way about himself. Many may have found Glushko a bit off-putting. But once the ball is rolling-having one person in charge of a nation's space effort for a lifetime? That is best, perhaps. Leaders come and go...above you-but you keep the vision.
Noted. Will start doing something asap I am set with real life stuff.
Zak and Siddiqi are the Naftali and Caro of space history.
I am lost...again...
 
Anatoly Zak and Asif Siddiqi...the late Phillip Clark...Bart Hendrixx? Russia-space writers. Good guys here as well. Vick and Oberg, etc.
 
So... a scenario like the Fallout franchise in dumb man's terms?

I'm unfamiliar with Fallout other than there's something about vaults and nukes.
PS forgot to reply to this @Orionblamblam due to the transistor being invented in the late 21st century, most things are bigger in Fallout's retrofuturistic alternate future world.
Had the Soviets scooped up the von Braun team, the US *might* have been able to leverage the work they'd already doen to launch an Aerojet powered, NAA-designed and built High Altitude Test Vehicle into orbit in the early 1950's.
Possible. But we are discussing the consequences of Soviet Union winning the Moon Race, which is more about solving the organization problems that plagued Soviet moon program, rather than engineers.
Let's say the Soviets got the von Braun team, and he was as successful with the Soviets as he had been with the Americans... instead of being monkeys on the Soviet team, the Germans end up *running* the Russian program, sidelining Korolev and Chelomey and such. On the other side, the US doesn't get the Germans, so Douglas and NAA (doubtless with a major PR campaign run by newly-minted Commodire Heinlein) end up in a race to build the US Air Force and Navy their World Circling Spaceship and High Altiutude Test Vehicle, and the US launches a Buck Rogers Decoder Ring into orbit in, say, 1952. Will that not spur the Soviets to get moving? Perhaps it would scare the pants off Stalin the way Sputnik spooked Eisenhower, and the Soviets charge ahead... and land on the moon in 1963, using something like the original (von Braunian) Apollo-Nova Direct approach while the US is futzing around building space stations and large, more sustatinable but higher up-front-cost lunar infrastructure in LEO.
On a sidenote... could the Soviets GET THAT EARLY on the Moon? 1963? Isn't the best case scenario say, 1967-1969?

In the meantime. I made a logo for an earlier Interkosmos...which I called Komkosmos...

Senza nome (2).png
I lacked as much originality as the Portuguese explorers that named cities in Brazil (I will just just say that we have a city literally called "place with tall trees" after you translated to it).
 
Had Korolev died in Kolyma, an all hypergolic rocket program with Glushko and Chelomei would have streamlined things. Yangel's R-56 replacing N-1 and Energia both? Had Glushko been THE man, instead being the second string quarterback-things may have been different. No Mishin, no competition. Valentin Petrovich would have lifetime control.
Nope. It would not be streamlined and it would be further behind. Korolev was greatly involved in the Vostok spacecraft. Chelomei hadn't started thinking about them at the time.
 
Had Korolev died in Kolyma, an all hypergolic rocket program with Glushko and Chelomei would have streamlined things. Yangel's R-56 replacing N-1 and Energia both? Had Glushko been THE man, instead being the second string quarterback-things may have been different. No Mishin, no competition. Valentin Petrovich would have lifetime control.
Nope. It would not be streamlined and it would be further behind. Korolev was greatly involved in the Vostok spacecraft. Chelomei hadn't started thinking about them at the time.
Who do you think would have make streamlined things? What's your take on take on it ? I (think) am writing very fluidly so I could swap Glushko for Korolev.
 
I am but a layman myself. I might contact Anatoly Zak here:
 
Apologies if I missed or didn't reply to any response I got in this thread, but besides being on vacation, I just got sued by father in Brazil. So if I didn't reply to any response to my post, that's the reason. I am doing fine except the bastard's behavior against me. My mother's chemo seems to be working so far at least. And I only have 2 university exams left.
 
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