A not-Cyprus scenario

[Lascaris]

So let's try something a little different. You are not-Greece (well a Greece that defeated the Turkish nationalists in the 1920s if we want to get technical and 40 years later is firmly established on both coasts of the Aegean) in the early 1960s. You have to deal with a certain military problem namely being able to ship reinforcements to Cyprus, provide at least some air cover and of course stop not-Turkey from doing the same. On the ground in the island old RAF Nicosia is around, potentially you could forward base aircraft there, if you want to accept the associated risks.

Not-Greece is a member in good standing of the Western alliance, with a reasonably good economy, say around Netherlands/Australia GDP and population and high military spending. The opposition is more in the non aligned camp, with access to East Block equipment and some Western stuff.

Starting in the early 1960s how do you go about accomplishing the task? Some first thoughts of mine. Grabbing the last unbuilt Majestic, while tempting would be entirely useless, when the Su-7s start coming out of Konya, not to mention things like Tu-16s. So concentrate to Terrier/Tartar armed ships, the Italian cruisers of the era look tempting with their combination of AAW and ASW and submarines instead, forward base Hunters/Mysteres in Nicosia longer term these can be replaced by Mirage III or something similar. Then you need a long range fighter and or interdictor or both if differenttypes are chosen...

Thoughts?

 

[starviking]

So Greece, basically has Treaty of Sevres boundaries? Cyprus has just been granted independence, but intercommunal strife remains. Turkey is not in NATO?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Turkish_War_(1919–1922)#/media/File:Treaty_of_Sèvres_1920.svg

 

[Lascaris]

So Greece, basically has Treaty of Sevres boundaries? Cyprus has just been granted independence, but intercommunal strife remains. Turkey is not in NATO?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Turkish_War_(1919–1922)#/media/File:Treaty_of_Sèvres_1920.svg

Overall yes. Greece is in NATO (or a reasonable facsimile of it), Turkey is non-aligned. Cyprus is independent though neither side is taking it entirely seriously...

 

[uk 75]

This is a pure alt history scenario with no unbuilt secret project content..
Creating fictional countries in real world political crisis areas usually ends in a row over what countries might or might not have done
Real world Greece and Turkey have interesting postwar options involving purchase of foreign equipment and development of their own national programmes.

 

[Lascaris]

This is a pure alt history scenario with no unbuilt secret project content..
Creating fictional countries in real world political crisis areas usually ends in a row over what countries might or might not have done
Real world Greece and Turkey have interesting postwar options involving purchase of foreign equipment and development of their own national programmes.

Then stick to the pure military/technical problem. It's not as if we don't have multiple similar threads.

 

[uk 75]

Ok.
Mediterranean NATO member in the Aegean like Netherlands/Australia in economy and population.
Early 60s both nations have single ex UK carriers and guided missile ships in the offing (US or UK designs or national design with their weapons).
You have turned Turkey into Yugoslavia (unlikely for a country bordering Soviet Union but still)
So missile boats (OSAs and Komars) some old subs and a clapped out frigate or two.
Netherlands has F104s and Hunters with F5s pending. Pretty standard NATO.
Yugos have Sabres and Mugs.
Sorry but real Greece and Turkey in this timeline much more interesting.
Lots of choices for air and naval forces.
Do the US arm both sides or does France?
Greece could have left wing coup and leave NATO so getting nice Sov rewards like Egypt and Syria.
Fine for alt history but no Avro Arrows or P1154s or variants of County class.

 

[Lascaris]

Ok.
Mediterranean NATO member in the Aegean like Netherlands/Australia in economy and population.
Early 60s both nations have single ex UK carriers and guided missile ships in the offing (US or UK designs or national design with their weapons).

Of which the first is not making much sense if the face of a large enemy air force, the second certainly does.

You have turned Turkey into Yugoslavia (unlikely for a country bordering Soviet Union but still)
So missile boats (OSAs and Komars) some old subs and a clapped out frigate or two.

Egypt/Indonesia rather. Even a reduced Turkey is likely to have a larger economy than Egypt. And can likely bargain her geographic position for large scale Soviet aid, OTL Turkey was pretty close to the Soviets well into the late 1930s. Indonesia received a Sverdlov, several destroyers and Whiskey subs. Not certain the Soviets would be willing to pass Tu-16s or Tu-22s even to a friendly Turkey but anything else the Egyptians and the Indonesians got is likely fair game.

Netherlands has F104s and Hunters with F5s pending. Pretty standard NATO.
Yugos have Sabres and Mugs.
Sorry but real Greece and Turkey in this timeline much more interesting.

Real Greece and Turkey in 1964 were still 100% dependent on free American military aid, which is how both countries got F-104G and F-5A, when both countries wanted to be armed exclusively with F-104G (or for that matter also F-4D in the Greek case). The F-4Es ordered by Greece was actually the first fighter bought with national funds after 1939. Same for the Type 209s. Shorta boring.

Lots of choices for air and naval forces.
Do the US arm both sides or does France?
Greece could have left wing coup

Greece to have a left wing coup would need an act of god, alien invasion or something in that order given the actual power of the left in government institutions.

and leave NATO so getting nice Sov rewards like Egypt and Syria.
Fine for alt history but no Avro Arrows or P1154s or variants of County class.

Not certain why someone would choose County over... Andrea Doria for example.

 

[uk 75]

Ok.as the dragons say I am out of this one.
I see no NATO country wanting to arm your Non Greece to fight a war over Cyprus.. Even the US will only supply what it supplied in real life. Certainly not Terrier or Tartars..UK similarly which leaves France which might get you Masurca in say 1968 on a French or Italian built destroyer.
There is no way that any country located where Turkey is will be non aligned. That leaves Warsaw Pact membership like Bulgaria.
Even Kruschev and certainly Kosygin and Breshnev won't want a shooting war over Cyprus.

 

[Archibald]

It blew my mind to no end that both countries OTL got F-102 Delta Darts... on top of, as you said, F-5A and F-104G and Phantoms. And F-100s for the Turks. Talk about a nice collection of Century fighters and beyond.

 

[Deleted member 2278]

I feel that this is one of those threads where whatever I say, it will be the wrong answer but here goes.

If Greece has a Marmara/Dardanelles coast and is bordered and effectively surrounded by a Warsaw Pact Bulgaria, a neutral-leaning-hostile Yugoslavia/Albania and an effectively hostile Turkey, then Greece is in NATO. Full stop. The US will want a Black Sea tap and Greece will need a backstop. If Turkey does have Su-7s and Tu-16s(!), then they are a de facto Soviet client state and will not be appearing in friendly colours on any western maps! If that isn't the case by authorial fiat, then you have changed too much and we can have no meaningful input. This is too important to sideline the superpowers!

So with that, Greece is rather isolated and it's seaborne lines of communication are vital. So interceptors, yes (a Hellenic F-106A is a pleasing thought) and Tartar-DDGs too but my thoughts turn to S-2 Trackers. Lots of them. If I were Turkey in this scenario, I would give serious thoughts to acquiring some Foxtrots/Romeos to prevent Greek resupply in the event of war, seeking then to attrite and roll-up. Turkey are also likely to be amenable to letting the Black Sea Fleet out for those long walks during the uneasy peace. That is likely to give CO Sixth Fleet restless nights so I expect Souda Bay to have several fast food restaurants ITTL!

 

[Archibald]

Turkish Tu-16s ? wow, they could threaten the entire western Europe, perhaps as far as Iceland. Also the entire North African coastline, and south up to Egypt and Chad. And the navies inside the Mediterranean sea: France, Italy, Spain.
Algeria MiG-25R already made themselves nuisances over southern France, spying Toulon harbor and Pierrelatte nuclear plants... same for Ghaddafi Tu-22s.

 

[Lascaris]

I feel that this is one of those threads where whatever I say, it will be the wrong answer but here goes.

If Greece has a Marmara/Dardanelles coast and is bordered and effectively surrounded by a Warsaw Pact Bulgaria, a neutral-leaning-hostile Yugoslavia/Albania and an effectively hostile Turkey, then Greece is in NATO. Full stop. The US will want a Black Sea tap and Greece will need a backstop. If Turkey does have Su-7s and Tu-16s(!), then they are a de facto Soviet client state and will not be appearing in friendly colours on any western maps!

They are not communist or for that matter in the Warsaw pact. But neither was Egypt.

If that isn't the case by authorial fiat, then you have changed too much and we can have no meaningful input. This is too important to sideline the superpowers!

So with that, Greece is rather isolated and it's seaborne lines of communication are vital. So interceptors, yes (a Hellenic F-106A is a pleasing thought) and Tartar-DDGs too but my thoughts turn to S-2 Trackers. Lots of them.

Any way you look at it the Greeks will need to keep the sealanes open. So a large ASW capacity is an obvious one.

If I were Turkey in this scenario, I would give serious thoughts to acquiring some Foxtrots/Romeos to prevent Greek resupply in the event of war, seeking then to attrite and roll-up. Turkey are also likely to be amenable to letting the Black Sea Fleet out for those long walks during the uneasy peace. That is likely to give CO Sixth Fleet restless nights so I expect Souda Bay to have several fast food restaurants ITTL!

No Montreux is a not unreasonable assumption here IMO which means the Dardanelles are demilitarized. Which brings the fun and games with the Soviet Black Sea fleet into the Aegean...

 

[Lascaris]

Turkish Tu-16s ? wow, they could threaten the entire western Europe, perhaps as far as Iceland. Also the entire North African coastline, and south up to Egypt and Chad. And the navies inside the Mediterranean sea: France, Italy, Spain.
Algeria MiG-25R already made themselves nuisances over southern France, spying Toulon harbor and Pierrelatte nuclear plants... same for Ghaddafi Tu-22s.

If Tu-16 was exported to Egypt, Iraq and Indonesia and Tu-22 to Iraq and Libya, it makes a certain degree of sense the Soviets would not be entirely shy about selling to what would be one of their most important clients?

 

[Archibald]

Turkish Blinders ?

 

[Yellow Palace]

No Montreux is a not unreasonable assumption here IMO which means the Dardanelles are demilitarized. Which brings the fun and games with the Soviet Black Sea fleet into the Aegean...

It also means that one of Greece's key NATO tasks will be to keep the Black Sea fleet in the Black Sea, which is now a Soviet lake in NATO eyes.

That will significantly govern their defence decisions. Expect a significant investment in offensive mine warfare, fast attack craft, and maritime strike aircraft. If (as I believe is the intent) they hold Eastern Thrace, there'll be coastal defences along the northern coast of the straits. And probably the southern (Turkish) coast as well.

With Turkey as a Soviet client state in the Egypt/Syria model, NATO will be very keen to hold on to Cyprus as a strategic location in the Eastern Mediterranean. No US nuclear weapons at Incirlik means that the Vulcans at Akrotiri become very important. The Soviet Mediterranean Squadron may well base itself at Mersin or Antalya instead of Latakia, making the region that bit hotter - especially if Tu-16s or Tu-22s show up at Incirlik.

I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Cyprus joins NATO in this timeline. If so, a Turkish invasion of Cyprus would be off the cards short of WW3, and everyone would know it. Even if Cyprus doesn't join NATO, the alliance would have a strong interest in keeping a Soviet client state out.

The wider Cold War context is also significant: the USAF may not deploy Jupiter missiles to what will presumably be Smyrna Air Base in this timeline, as it'll be very far forward. If they're deployed in Greece, another location might be chosen - perhaps Araxos Air Base.

And, without Turkey in the Western camp, Iran becomes much more significant. NATO reconnaissance flights along the Black Sea coast are very limited, though Greece may have a small Black Sea coastline that can be used to thread flights through. Flights along the Central Asian and Caucasian borders will have to be based somewhere in the Middle East.

 

[Archibald]

Sure, Turkey was a hotbed of U-2 RB57F and others - to listen Baikonur, Semipalatinsk and Shary Shagan telemetry chatter. With Turkey an ennemy, Iran IBEX becomes all the more important to the spooks.

 

[Lascaris]

No Montreux is a not unreasonable assumption here IMO which means the Dardanelles are demilitarized. Which brings the fun and games with the Soviet Black Sea fleet into the Aegean...

It also means that one of Greece's key NATO tasks will be to keep the Black Sea fleet in the Black Sea, which is now a Soviet lake in NATO eyes.

That will significantly govern their defence decisions. Expect a significant investment in offensive mine warfare, fast attack craft, and maritime strike aircraft. If (as I believe is the intent) they hold Eastern Thrace, there'll be coastal defences along the northern coast of the straits. And probably the southern (Turkish) coast as well.

Any Sevres demilitarization clauses surviving ww2 would be... interesting when having to deal with the Soviet threat. In all likehood Lemnos as fortress to choke the exit of the Dardanelles. And probably the US would be putting quite a bit more importance on the HN in NATO planning, it needs to be strong enough to close the Aegean at a minimum and further fight in the Eastern Mediterranean. Not much different than Italy in that regard...

With Turkey as a Soviet client state in the Egypt/Syria model, NATO will be very keen to hold on to Cyprus as a strategic location in the Eastern Mediterranean. No US nuclear weapons at Incirlik means that the Vulcans at Akrotiri become very important.

the US in the early 1960s was pretty amenable to plans of uniting Cyprus with Greece. Even more so here I think. Which of course provides approximate cause for a Greek-Turkish crisis before Cyprus becomes NATO territory and thus out of bounds. Which in turn means the Greeks would be looking at military options to back this... which is effectively our original question.

The Soviet Mediterranean Squadron may well base itself at Mersin or Antalya instead of Latakia, making the region that bit hotter - especially if Tu-16s or Tu-22s show up at Incirlik.

Mersin I think. Antalya would be rather more exposed to strike aircraft out of Crete...

 

[uk 75]

Ok since this thread has survived and has some participants let us see what we can do with the Hellenic Federal Republic (or United Hellenic Kingdom if you prefer).
As a shipbuilding maritime nation it should be capable of a fleet similar to Italy's by 1966.
Two helicopter cruisers with Terrier (Doria style)
Four DDG with Tartar (Impavido style or Adams cl copy)
8 ASW/GP frigates (Leander style or Knox cl copy).

Air Force would be using F104s like the Italian and Dutch though Mirage IIIs might be bought if Lockheed bribes fail.
Given position and early orders for F4 variants most likely. Could be an MRCA/ Tornado partner.
Nike H and Hawks in generous quantities.

Turkey would have a severe Kurdish problem with US backing Free Kurds in Iraq (British protected since 1958 coup failed) and Iran Shah using it to placate Iranian Kurds.

An unfriendly Turkey would not be able to send guest workers to NATO West Germany and massive Western investment would go to Greece instead.
if in Soviet camp not much tourism either.

Black Sea fleet.however still inferior to 6th Fleet. Kruschev didnt like carriers so subs and missile ships instead.

But as I wrote above no unbuilt secret stuff or variants generated. Just a shakeup of existing military equipment

 

[Lascaris]

Ok since this thread has survived and has some participants let us see what we can do with the Hellenic Federal Republic (or United Hellenic Kingdom if you prefer).
As a shipbuilding maritime nation it should be capable of a fleet similar to Italy's by 1966.
Two helicopter cruisers with Terrier (Doria style)
Four DDG with Tartar (Impavido style or Adams cl copy)
8 ASW/GP frigates (Leander style or Knox cl copy).

Seems logical, add from 1968 onwards a generous number of missile boats, the Aegean was a very convenient area for their operation. And the Greeks by 1960 will be likely looking at new submarines, to replace ww2 era British made boats and supplement US Balaos. Your options at the time pretty much amount to Daphne, Oberon or Balao class boats.

Air Force would be using F104s like the Italian and Dutch though Mirage IIIs might be bought if Lockheed bribes fail.
Given position and early orders for F4 variants most likely. Could be an MRCA/ Tornado partner.
Nike H and Hawks in generous quantities.

F-111 is probably too costly although the Greeks would certainly want a long range strike platform. Supposedly Israel did order 15 Mirage IV per the French secret projects book which could be an alternative. Otherwise stick to Phantom and supplement it with Corsairs and air refuel to have a minimum capacity. MRCA... depends on the relationship with Britain after the 1950s. If it got totaled by Cyprus in the 1950s the Greeks are much more likely to play junior partner to France, in real life Dassault was offering a 20% industrial share on Mirage F1, than go for MRCA.

 

[uk 75]

Without Turkey in NATO the Cyprus question becomes very different for the UK. There would be no incentive for Whitehall to worry about the interests of the Turkish community and efforts would be focussed on doing a deal to keep based on Cyprus.
If your Non Greece is a stable pro NATO member with no military junta or very left wing anti US governments then it would be a key UK regional ally.