A European Reassurance Force for Ukraine: Options and Challenges (IISS paper)

I'll believe it when I see it. As to Russia, they simply won't stand down when so much is being achieved that the current situation can be compared to a snowballed League game. No ceasefire deal will be reach.

It's simple: either accommodate the dictator and his demands or stand up and move in to stop all conflicts. Start with pausing the gas imports and proliferate French reactors.
 
yeetmahboi said:
It's simple: either accommodate the dictator and his demands or stand up and move in to stop all conflicts. Start with pausing the gas imports and proliferate French reactors.
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Europeans are always so eager to fight till the last soldier... but "for some reason", only as long as the Ukrainean soldiers are the ones who dying.
 
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If you tell someone:
a) your country doesn't exist we are going to take it away from you.
b) we are going to take your women and children away and make them ours.
c) you will be subject to arbitrary service in our armed forces or a labour camp
d) while we wait for you to decide we will try and make you freeze in Winter and bomb your schools and hospitals.

They have two options:
a) fight you till you go away
b) let you do a) to d) above

Sorry but it is that simple.
 
uk 75 said:
If you tell someone:
a) your country doesn't exist we are going to take it away from you.
b) we are going to take your women and children away and make them ours.
c) you will be subject to arbitrary service in our armed forces or a labour camp
d) while we wait for you to decide we will try and make you freeze in Winter and bomb your schools and hospitals.

They have two options:
a) fight you till you go away
b) let you do a) to d) above

Sorry but it is that simple.
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Oh don't get me wrong. I fully support Ukraine's fight. They have every right to their own sovereignty. They can fight to the last men of Maidan if they want. The West instigated this war and from the onset rejected every chance of Ukraine's success. Why renounce their plan to strike internal Russia with long range weapons. And, Russia isn't America. Putin has no problem with optics and casualties. That's what I take issue with. I don't bootlick Trump but as more Ukrainian men and women die on their own soil while European leaders drink champaign and discuss their "plans" the further I believe his claim that this whole ordeal was a mistake and could have been prevented. To be fair I don't think he would've step in to aid Ukraine more than the last administrations have done. Probably he would've left Ukraine to their own devices and starved of aid.
 
These are the options.
  • A small-scale force with a deployed land component of a brigade of about 10,000 troops, supported by a limited air component and naval assets;
  • A medium-scale force based on a land component of a large division, with about 25,000 troops supported by larger air and maritime components; and
  • A large-scale force centred on a corps-sized land component of between 60,000 and 100,000 troops, supported by substantial air and maritime elements.
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:oops: :oops: :oops:
 
yeetmahboi said:
Maidan
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Where Ukrainians had the temerity to ask that the Ukrainian parliament's overwhelmingly approving the EU Association Agreement be honoured. The nerve.
yeetmahboi said:
I believe his claim that this whole ordeal was a mistake and could have been prevented.
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With hindsight, Russia invading Ukraine became inevitable when Yanukovich absconded to Russia in 2014, following a 328 to zero parliamentary vote to depose him, with the remaining119 not turning up to vote. From that moment, Ukraine was drifting ever further away from Russia, closer to the EU.
 
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Arjen said:
With hindsight, Russia invading Ukraine became inevitable when Yanukovich was ousted in 2014. From that moment, Ukraine was drifting ever further away from Russia, closer to the EU.
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Russia problems weren't with Ukraine drifting to EU; our problems were with Ukraine drifting to NATO. And the matters of increasing prejustice against Russian-speaking population of the east regions. Russia would be perfectly content with neutral federalized Ukraine joining the EU, actually; European Union wasn't viewed as "dangerous opponent" yet.
 
Pure nonsense. President Putin has stated that foreign troops will be regarded as foreign mercenaries and will not be given Geneva Convention protections. So if, and when, Russian tanks cross the border again, foreign "peacekeepers" will be killed. The British Prime Minister knows this. And as a Slavic person, I could care less if one part of the country was speaking Gaelic and the other parts weren't.

The EU doesn't want the Ukraine.

* Europe's current mission is to prevent what it calls far-right politicians from being part of the political process.
 
edwest4 said:
...

* Europe's current mission is to prevent what it calls far-right politicians from being part of the political process.
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Mainly because most of these far-right politicians are close or were even financed by Moscow. Moreover, as long as they follow the rule of law, it is impossible to deny them being part of the political process...
Those who infringe the law and are caught get what they deserve, no felon can be elected. Period.
And it's not Europe's only mission anyway.
 
Well, let's see, there are no winners in this war, neither Europe nor Russia. In any case, after 1991, NATO continued its eastward expansion, and the former comrades became the enemies of today. Guess who won, it's Russia? Ukraine? Or European countries? It's a sad thing.
 
Nope. Putin is byproduct of Cold War KGB and he is deeply paranoid about NATO and its expansion. But NATO has always been a DEFENSIVE organization. No way they pick a war with a 5000 nuke Russia. The warlord since 2008 and Georgia has been Putin. Same story with Ukraine since 2014.
 
Archibald said:
Nope. Putin is byproduct of Cold War KGB and he is deeply paranoid about NATO and its expansion. But NATO has always been a DEFENSIVE organization. No way they pick a war with a 5000 nuke Russia. The warlord since 2008 and Georgia has been Putin. Same story with Ukraine since 2014.
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IIRC the Russian Federation was assured in 90s that NATO would not expand east. Poland and Austria are admitted in 1999 and '95 respectively, and so on. There's great reason for Putin to have been paranoid, because they were out to get them. I'm sure I'm in the minority, and so be it, but I can very much understand their decision-making (no matter how foolish) from their POV.
 
Nope. Putin is byproduct of Cold War KGB and he is deeply paranoid about NATO and its expansion. But NATO has always been a DEFENSIVE organization. No way they pick a war with a 5000 nuke Russia. The warlord since 2008 and Georgia has been Putin. Same story with Ukraine since 2014.
 
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Archibald said:
Nope. Putin is byproduct of Cold War KGB and he is deeply paranoid about NATO and its expansion. But NATO has always been a DEFENSIVE organization. No way they pick a war with a 5000 nuke Russia. The warlord since 2008 and Georgia has been Putin. Same story with Ukraine since 2014.
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Oh please. Right after Soviet troops left Poland in the 1990s, what did the United States do? They sent over tanks. They extended the Western Wall east.

I spent the 1980s reading military journals. Page after page about what the West would do if the Soviets decided to move west. Suddenly, there were no peasants. Suddenly, nuclear exchanges were occurring everywhere. That was the plan.
 
I don't buy that NATO expansion excuse. NATO is not what would have brought economic growth to Ukraine like the EU brought it to former Warsaw Pacts countries, see how Poland is doing now for example. That is what bothers Putin, an ex-soviet country were the population would have benefited economically from EU, while russia's own population would have started thinking "why these Ukrainians are doing better than us, while we still have the same guy in power...". They would have started questioning his power, just like the Ukrainians started questioning Poroshenko... and they got Maidan.
Of course, there is lot of nationalistic ideas too, but mostly it's a lot used to divert attention from the fact that for Putin this is foremost about regime security, ie him and his "system" staying in power.
 
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I puke on the word power. Why did Stalin get all those European countries at the end of the war? Why? Instead of being liberated from Nazi rule and returning to independence, Stalin had a new group of people to act as his soldiers and accept his military equipment.

Moscow is not the center of the world. I puke on the word power.
 
Archibald said:
But NATO has always been a DEFENSIVE organization
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Now look how NATO bombed Yugoslavia (despite having no US sanctions to do so), and how NATO members attacked Iraq in 2003, Syria and Lybia in 2011 - and you would likely understood, why Russians in general were extremely skeptical about "defensive" role of NATO.
 
Archibald said:
Bottom line: Russia under Putin, like USSR before it, is such a shitty place Putin can't stomach NATO or the European Union coming too close... because his own people choice would be all too obvious.
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So why aren't they rebelling right now?

www.bbc.com

Putin begins biggest Russian military call-up in years

Russia calls up 160,000 men aged 18-30 as it moves to expand the size of its military.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Don't be fooled. Putin is smart. He knows the British will send "peacekeepers" and build shacks for them. He's getting ready NOW.
 
galgot said:
while russia's own population would have started thinking "why these Ukrainians are doing better than us,
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Nah, that's wasn't a real consideration. To put it simply, it would took years to restructure Ukrainean economy even with EU aid - and as Greece example proves, EU help could easily be mismanaged and wasted. The example of most other post-Soviet republics generally isn't of great prosperity either; not to the level of Russians becoming envious of them.
 
Dilandu said:
Bottom line; with all respect, but when the last time you visited Russia? Before 2014, the country was in economic boom; and even after 2014, the growth was significant till pandemic started in 2020.
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All this is interesting. Please, were do you live in Russia ? In a big city, Moscow or St-Peterburg , or in a smaller town , in the country ?
Have you visited west Europe yourself, or Poland, or even Romania recently ?
 
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Dilandu said:
Russia would be perfectly content with neutral federalized Ukraine joining the EU...
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I wonder how cool Russia will be with China deciding that chunks of Siberia belong to China. I wonder if that's what China is really waiting for; sure, they want Taiwan, but if they go to war for it they'll only get an ideological victory, cuz the manufacturing/tech sectors will be destroyed in the invasion or by subsequent sabotage. But Siberias natural resources won't be so fragile, and with Russias military "might" having been expended out west and it's manhood burned to a crisp in trenches, Russia will be militarily limited in what it can do in response to Xi just wandering in and taking stuff.
 
galgot said:
Please, were do you live in Russia ?
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In Moscow. And while I agree that the rest of the country is not as prosperous, it's also far from what Western propaganda invents as "horrors of Russian life".

galgot said:
Have you visited west Europe yourself, or Poland, or even Romania recently ?
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Yes. As well as I have friends and relatives in Europe and USA.
 
Dilandu said:
In Moscow. And while I agree that the rest of the country is not as prosperous, it's also far from what Western propaganda invents as "horrors of Russian life".
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Sure. It's not an underdeveloped country. But still, with all respect I do have for Russian people (but not for Putin), I would not exchange my quality of life here (France) for living in Russia, even in Moscow. And ask a Polish guy, sure you'd have the same answer. And that's mainly Putin's fault, not Ukraine's, NATO, EU, or the martians.

It's not only about the wealth of the country, mind you.
 
galgot said:
I would not exchange my quality of life here (France) for living Russia, even in Moscow. And ask a Polish guy, sure you'd have the same answer.
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And I freely agree that we are behind European quality of life and population prosperity - still for significant margin. It's a fact, after all. My point was specifically that most of post-Soviet republics (I remind you, Poland was NOT a Soviet republic, it was socialist country, but independent, not a part of USSR in any way!) did not actually fare much better than Russia. Some (like Baltic states) are more prosperous; most less, some quite significantly less. My point is, that the concept of "Russian peoples becoming envious if Ukraine joined the EU" is based more on stereotypes, than facts.
 
Darn, you guys managed to drag me into political discussion on the themes sencitive for me:confused: . Rest assured, as half-Russian and half-Ukrainean I'm not happy about it & I probably should knew better( Anyway, I'm done with this discussion.
 
Dilandu said:
And I freely agree that we are behind European quality of life and population prosperity - still for significant margin. It's a fact, after all. My point was specifically that most of post-Soviet republics (I remind you, Poland was NOT a Soviet republic, it was socialist country, but independent, not a part of USSR in any way!) did not actually fare much better than Russia. Some (like Baltic states) are more prosperous; most less, some quite significantly less. My point is, that the concept of "Russian peoples becoming envious if Ukraine joined the EU" is based more on stereotypes, than facts.
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I see. Maybe I miss expressed what I wanted to say earlier. It's not that they would specifically become "envious", but more that they would start questioning. Seeing a former Soviet state CHANGING system, and yet doing reasonably well would make them QUESTIONING the ones in power, "why can't we change this guy to try to improve this or that in the country ?"... stuff like that. Just like the Ukrainians saw how former Warsaw Pact countries were doing, and started questioning their leaders, "why is it always the same crooks at the top, when we want to improve this or that ... ?"
THIS is what Putin doesn't want.
 
Dilandu said:
Darn, you guys managed to drag me into political discussion on the themes sencitive for me:confused: . Rest assured, as half-Russian and half-Ukrainean I'm not happy about it & I probably should knew better( Anyway, I'm done with this discussion.
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Ah sorry :( hope I didn't upset you. Difficult times indeed.
 
As someone who worked for the UK government from 1979 to 2004 I do not recognise the idea that original NATO members were eager to include new members.
The tragic break up of the former Yugoslavia along ethnic lines preoccupied Eurooean members. It took US intervention to get to the uneasy peace we have today.
Then as now Russia sided with Serbia but under Yeltsin could do little to help Milosevic when NATO was forced to act.
I do agree that the USA had its own arrangements with Russia over the heads of Europeans. Then as now Gorbachev and then Yeltsin saw Washington alone as speaking for the West. Condi Rice could tell us more.

It is also true that Washington was keener than European capitals on bringing new members into NATO. NATO knew perfectly well that they would not add to its defensive role and that the military were concerned how they could be defended. This is sadly ironic given current US attitudes

The Yeltsin years left deep scars on Russia. There are awful parallels with the Weimar years in Germany. Like Hitler Putin was elected by cooperating with the democratic process but once in power he consolidated his control of government and media. His success has encouraged others to do the same.

The greatest failure of Russia since the demise of the Soviet Union has been to widen the gap between the elites in Moscow and St Petersburg and the far flung reaches of the Federation.

China has been taking full advantage of this to create events on the ground in the Far East by peaceful penetration. It plays its usual long game.
Russia has more in common with its European neighbours than China but its secret dream (hardly a secret) is to be like America
 
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Rest assured, as half-Russian and half-Ukrainean I'm not happy about it & I probably should knew better
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Drats. @Dilandu : apologies, and above all, thanks from you staying outside poisoned political discussions. A long time ago I more or less guessed you were russian, but now you tell us you are also part ukrainian - wow.
Talk about, as we say in French "avoir le cul entre deux chaises" literally "to have one's ass split between two chairs." All in the expression, must be... painful.
Back discussing RAAN if Sukarno stayed in power !
 
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Orionblamblam said:
I wonder how cool Russia will be with China deciding that chunks of Siberia belong to China. I wonder if that's what China is really waiting for; sure, they want Taiwan, but if they go to war for it they'll only get an ideological victory, cuz the manufacturing/tech sectors will be destroyed in the invasion or by subsequent sabotage. But Siberias natural resources won't be so fragile, and with Russias military "might" having been expended out west and it's manhood burned to a crisp in trenches, Russia will be militarily limited in what it can do in response to Xi just wandering in and taking stuff.
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Very much not cool with it.

And I see that happening, probably shortly after Putin passes and the Russian leadership is up for grabs.
 
Archibald said:
Drats. @Dilandu : apologies, and above all, thanks from you staying outside poisoned political discussions.
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Nothing to apologize for; it's my fault, that I wasn't able to avoid such discussion. Usually I try not to participate in them, but, alas, my curiosity sometimes gets over my self-control.
 
Archibald said:
A long time ago I more or less guessed you were russian, but now you tell us you are also part ukrainian - wow.
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Half-half to be exact. My mother is from Moscow (Russia), my father is from Berdichev (Ukraine). Albeit some of my mother ancestors are from Odessa, and it seems to be a bit of Greek ancestry here too (but it's not exactly confirmed)
 

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