Europe keeping the Red Sea open?

[Dilandu]

It isn't that easy to sneak things into northern Yemen.
Key enabling parts - sure, but bulky weapon system deliveries - nah.

Erm. Sea traffic.

 

[Ainen]

Erm. Sea traffic.

Sea traffic coming to Hodeidah is being boarded and inspected for almost 10 years at this point.
It doesn't mean you can intercept every Dhow, or prevent absolutely every bulk carrier to be sanitized; this isn't Gaza. But ballistic missiles don't fit into Dhows.

It usually looks like this:

And this is a particularly lucky intercept.

Most things flying out of Yemen are produced within Yemen. There is no other way.

 

[Dilandu]

It usually looks like this:

You realize, that you have full-scale anti-ship missile here?

 

[Ainen]

You realize, that you have full-scale anti-ship missile here?

It's one of the luckiest intrcepts in a decade. And here for 1 disassembled missile(very light one, btw), there are 5 engines and >dozen sensor kits for something. You can't disassemble ballistic missile this way. Especially, god forbid, solid fuel one.

The only truly interesting thing caught in boardings multiple times in multiple numbers was the 358. Which is immediate impact-maker.

Otherwise, it's normally just personal firearms and team weapons, i.e. normal smuggling into civil war.

 

[SUPER=BUG]

OK. Where are the Houthis getting their weapons from? Who is paying for all of it? The U.S. is taking out weapons, storage and radar. And will continue bombing until all anti-ship activity stops.

The Houthis are able to build some of their own missiles, and some of them even perform quite well. In addition to Iran, we also believe that certain missile components were smuggled from Europe. As a side note, in my eyes their military command structure is more like ····· USSR? The construction of their army is destined to show that their combat effectiveness is not as simple as ordinary people think. The Soviets had a strong presence in the region, and perhaps it was during that time that the Houthis learned how to build missiles.

 

[Big_Zukini]

You would have to ask the Houthis.

Yemen’s Houthis ‘will not stop’ Red Sea attacks until Israel ends Gaza war

US launches maritime coalition to counter attacks the rebel group says are a response to Israeli ‘crimes’ in Gaza Strip.

www.aljazeera.com

Houthi claimed that they started those attacks to force Israel to stop military actions in Gaza. Most likely, though, that Iran just called the Houthi massive debts (Iran supported them with funs, weapons and intelligence against Saudi-led coalition in Yemen) and ordered Houthi to attack international shipping in an attempt to salvage the situation in Gaza (which definitedy turned out NOT how Iran wanted)

Houthis are part of the Iranian axis. IRGC has the expressed ambition to achieve hegemony in the region and beyond.
Blocking the Red Sea is exactly part of the deterrence balance Iran tries to create and directly mimics on a miniature scale Iran's threat to block gulf energy trade should it be attacked, as a sort of "nuclear option".
Like with all wars, a casus belli is preferable. The war in Gaza is that kind of casus belli, but it's not related to Israel's method or very act of prosecuting a war in Gaza. In fact the Houthis launched their attacks in October of 2023, while Israel only started operations in Gaza in November.
Culturally speaking, Houthi, IRGC, and general Iranian sentiment toward pretty much every Palestinian factions and Palestinians in general, is much more easily described as deeply negative than a positive one.

From a data standpoint, the only correlation between Houthi attacks and Israeli military action is an inverse one - with Houthi attacks gradually reducing as Israel and the rest of the Red Sea coalition intensify attacks.

Therefore the assertion that a sudden end of the Israel-Gaza war would also end Houthi hostility, is counter-factual.

 

[Arjen]

It is, ultimately, whatever motivates the foot soldiers to take up arms and fight. However tenuous the connection with the warlords' real motives.

It is the foot soldiers and bystanders who do the suffering. Not the warlords.

 

[Rule of cool]

The RN is sending a Carrier Strike Group into the Indo-Pacific this year, for the first time a QE class carrier will have the full 2 British sqns of F35Bs. This is impressive enough for Britain, but I doubt it could undertake sustained heavy strikes for very long.

 

[1635yankee]

Something else the Europeans likely can't do.

Who can other than Netanyahu?

 

[Rule of cool]

Who can other than Netanyahu?

The US has a lot more capacity in this area than Europe.

 

[sienar]

Houthis are part of the Iranian axis. IRGC has the expressed ambition to achieve hegemony in the region and beyond.
Blocking the Red Sea is exactly part of the deterrence balance Iran tries to create and directly mimics on a miniature scale Iran's threat to block gulf energy trade should it be attacked, as a sort of "nuclear option".
Like with all wars, a casus belli is preferable. The war in Gaza is that kind of casus belli, but it's not related to Israel's method or very act of prosecuting a war in Gaza. In fact the Houthis launched their attacks in October of 2023, while Israel only started operations in Gaza in November.
Culturally speaking, Houthi, IRGC, and general Iranian sentiment toward pretty much every Palestinian factions and Palestinians in general, is much more easily described as deeply negative than a positive one.

From a data standpoint, the only correlation between Houthi attacks and Israeli military action is an inverse one - with Houthi attacks gradually reducing as Israel and the rest of the Red Sea coalition intensify attacks.

Therefore the assertion that a sudden end of the Israel-Gaza war would also end Houthi hostility, is counter-factual.

Weird correlation between the ceasefire in Gaza and Houthi attacks;

https://www.npr.org/2025/01/29/nx-s1-5270518/with-gaza-ceasefire-yemens-houthi-rebels-halt-attacks-on-ships-in-the-red-sea

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-resume-attacks-israeli-ships-after-gaza-aid-deadline-ended-2025-03-12/

 

[Big_Zukini]

Weird correlation between the ceasefire in Gaza and Houthi attacks;

https://www.npr.org/2025/01/29/nx-s1-5270518/with-gaza-ceasefire-yemens-houthi-rebels-halt-attacks-on-ships-in-the-red-sea

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-resume-attacks-israeli-ships-after-gaza-aid-deadline-ended-2025-03-12/

The correlation isn't weird. The Iranian axis in some ways went all in on October 7th but hesitated a lot along the way. Bringing in Hezbollah and the Houthis proved a fatal mistake for Iran.
When in a losing position, getting out is not always feasible. The ceasefire was a safe way out.
Things didn't really resume when the ceasefire expired exactly 2 months later. Houthi attacks are not nearly at the level they once were. Almost symbolic.

 

[Justo Miranda]

This type of humiliation did not occur in colonial times, but now we are more understanding.

I wonder when they stopped respecting us.... Gallipoli?.... Suez?... Múnich 72?

 

[Scott Kenny]

It's not only about ships, but also about missile stockpile depletion. Extrapolating from European cruise missile supplies, and taking into account the SAM attrition rate in Red Sea, several month of intense operations would probably reduce European navies air defense to autocannons only.

Very true.

Though I'd hope that Europe could spin up production faster than the US can...

Indeed. That’s why a better idea would be to form an indigenous anti-Houthi alliance, give them all the support they need, and crush the Houthis permanently.

Broad-brushstrokes there, I know. Getting such alliances to play nice with each other, and forgiving the occasional madman intent on just revenge is difficult.

I mean, I'm sure it'd be possible to play Liar of Arabia again and find some tribe with beef with the Houthis.

But once you arm that tribe up enough to deal with the Houthis, how do you keep them from doing the same stuff?

Or you know, get Israel to end their Gaza war.

As if that's what caused the Houthis to start shooting at ships.

 

[Martes]

But once you arm that tribe up enough to deal with the Houthis, how do you keep them from doing the same stuff?

You'd have to rule it until the end of times, and the question will be how you would keep yourself from doing the same stuff

That's the essence of maritime choke points.

 

[starviking]

I mean, I'm sure it'd be possible to play Liar of Arabia again and find some tribe with beef with the Houthis.

But once you arm that tribe up enough to deal with the Houthis, how do you keep them from doing the same stuff?

Well, more than a century after Lawrence of Arabia, Saudi Arabia is still a nominal Western ally, and is not firing missiles at places and things deemed to be Western/global interests.

 

[Ainen]

This type of humiliation did not occur in colonial times, but now we are more understanding.

Pointless picture.
RN is 2 breaky capital ships at best 1-2 AA destroyers at any given moment, similar number of nuke, plus a handful of frigates.
That's Kriegsmarine-1940 force level. Just about enough to invade Norway.

I mean, I'm sure it'd be possible to play Liar of Arabia again and find some tribe with beef with the Houthis.

That never even stopped.

Southern Yemeni government (with UAE/Saudi forces and Sudani mercenaries) did it for a decade, and before that (in different geopolitical setup) for another 50.

 

[martinbayer]

Or you know, get Israel to end their Gaza war.

That would be nice indeed.

 

[martinbayer]

This is the whole point; Europeans are at the mercy of the foreign policy of the US and Israel. They can't even deal with the blowback of the actions of others because they lack the power to do so.

Correction - they don't lack the power, they just lack the will/stomach/guts/balls.

 

[martinbayer]

How are Israel and Gaza related to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea?

I'm tempted to say that these days Israel is pretty much related to almost everything...

 

[Rule of cool]

Correction - they don't lack the power, they just lack the will/stomach/guts/balls.

All the will etc in the world doesn't mean anything if you lack the bombs to drop, the planes to drop them, carriers (& bases) to fly them from and the people in uniform to make it all happen. You're right about the Europeans not having the balls, but that's so long established that they now lack the muscle even they they grew a pair.

 

[martinbayer]

All the will etc in the world doesn't mean anything if you lack the bombs to drop, the planes to drop them, carriers (& bases) to fly them from and the people in uniform to make it all happen. You're right about the Europeans not having the balls, but that's so long established that they now lack the muscle even they they grew a pair.

If Europe *REALLY* were serious about a united emergency strategy, between all the in one way or another allied nations on the continent I am *ABSOLUTELY* convinced they could stand up and mobilize enough hardware and manpower for an effective and decisive campaign.

 

[Ainen]

If Europe *REALLY* were serious about a united emergency strategy, between all the in one way or another allied nations on the continent I am *ABSOLUTELY* convinced they could stand up and mobilize enough hardware and manpower for an effective and decisive campaign.

Sea and Land invasion, in Red sea, by themselves, with Iran and Saudis being against that(no, Saudi stance from 2018 and from 2025 is not the same)?

Nah, does not look doable. Either US or no one.

 

[Rule of cool]

If Europe *REALLY* were serious about a united emergency strategy, between all the in one way or another allied nations on the continent I am *ABSOLUTELY* convinced they could stand up and mobilize enough hardware and manpower for an effective and decisive campaign.

Not in the short term they couldn't.

Combat aircraft are painfully slow to produce and warships are worse. The Eurofighter Typhoon was produced at about 20 per year and Dassault has announced it would like to ramp up to 36 Rafales per year. In the short term the best that Britain for example could do would be to give the few dozen Typhoons it has in storage an update, but even that would likely take ,longer than a year.

 

[Big_Zukini]

I'm tempted to say that these days Israel is pretty much related to almost everything...

That's a gross misunderstanding of MENA politics.

Israeli foreign policy is inherently very reactionary. It is not involved in anything unless actively involved by someone else.
The same "keep to themselves" approach is true for several other MENA nations like Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, much of the western side of the gulf.

Countries and entities that do have a very active foreign policy?
Qatar, Iran and its many regional proxies including Houthis, Hezbollah, and to an extent Hamas.

Being a non-resource-based economy, and a democracy that doesn't need two-tier armies like Arab nations prefer, Israel is not deterred from reacting militarily if attacked.
Unlike, say, Saudi Arabia for example, which would rather cave in a little further than have Iran shut down its oil exports, and which doesn't have a competent all-domain armed force.

Understanding that Iran is very actively spreading its "Islamic Revolution" and that Houthis are one part of its proxy network, is a crucial step in combating the Houthis, as we can derive from that, that if the Houthis are not purged from western Yemen via a combined ground operation, they should at least be cut off from their arms supplier Iran.

I am personally skeptical about the reported preparations for a ground operation led by the recognized Yemeni government.
While true that Iran faced significant setbacks with Hezbollah and Assad being thanos snapped out of existence, the Houthis only had more time to prepare and entrench with significant foreign assistance, and past Yemeni attempts were not without combat and particularly aerial support.
I don't know much about the Saudi and Emirati Air Forces but I don't perceive them as low quality.

 

[Big_Zukini]

Re: What can Europe do.

In the first page, I said:

What do great powers capable of projecting power also usually do when they take security seriously? They use soft power. Lots of different countries around - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Somaliland, even Israel (longest route but still shorter than taking off from Akrotiri). All can be convinced, some more easily than others, to permit basing of aerial and naval power.

This is the first step.
I know that there's this weird perception that to deal with Iran or any of its proxies, a ground operation is necessary.
Not only is that un-founded, but there is very recent evidence for why the opposite is the case.
Examples:

• Hezbollah
• Syria

We must understand that in order to derive that we don't need to min-max in almost any conflict, really, including with the Houthis. It is possible to conduct mostly the low effort actions, i.e. the 20%, and reap 80% of the benefit, thus letting the Houthis gradually fade away. Supporting factors:

1. IRGC regime is in survival mode right now.
2. Houthis are heavily dependent on Iran.
3. Houthis are surrounded by hostile parties.
4. No land bridge to ally.
5. Rudimentary infrastructure.
6. Rudimentary defenses.
7. General scarcity of materiel.

Practical steps in Yemen:

1. Target Houthi-related MIC assets in Iran - components for missiles and drones.
2. Prevent repairs to Hodeidah port.
3. Blockade Hodeidah and Ras Isa ports.
4. Prevent activity of Sanaa airport.
5. Target any equipment related to fuel transport and construction.
6. Target leadership, C2, weapon deployments, and high value targets in general.

These will effectively choke out the Houthis economically and militarily. Fuel scarcity, the only remaining readily available commodity, will cause popularity drop and allow the Yemeni government to rally Houthi controlled population.
Material scarcity will force the Houthis to conserve munitions, immediately reducing the threat to Red Sea shipping, and will also prevent them from restoring and constructing fortifications like underground missile facilities.
Given enough material scarcity, the Houthis could start losing control even without a kinetic fight with the Yemeni government.

Practical steps in Red Sea:

1. Dedicate a few locally based ships and aircraft to escort missions.
2. Simply wait until the Houthis fade into irrelevance.

As for feasibility:
As mentioned earlier, Houthi air defenses are rudimentary. Certainly nothing that could challenge even a quantitatively neglected European force.
JDAMs, short range ALBMs and basic cruise missiles are all viable and cheap options that are also readily available either in stock or for acquisition.

 

[Ainen]

Understanding that Iran is very actively spreading its "Islamic Revolution" and that Houthis are one part of its proxy network, is a crucial step in combating the Houthis, as we can derive from that, that if the Houthis are not purged from western Yemen via a combined ground operation, they should at least be cut off from their arms supplier Iran.

This is the sort of easy and wrong understanding (Houthi as just an Iranian lapdog, DPRK is Chinese lapdog, Ukraine is American lapdog), which will at some point kill some of us here.

Almost all countries, recognized or not, are not lapdogs. No mules of gold can equal position of absolute authority, however small. Countries can be very dependent, but almost every significant attempt to strain the leash will weaken it.
The only exception is countries with leadership literally appointed from outside, with their true sovereignty coming from foreign power.
I.e. at most some french not-a-colonies - and that's one big reason they fail from a wrong glance if french bayonets are a moment too late.

IRGC(Iran really) can get houthis to act for perceived common good. Or they themselves can do it, perhaps with Iranian support.
Order them around - and what will happen for a no? Will Iran bite?

 

[Big_Zukini]

This is the sort of easy and wrong understanding (Houthi as just an Iranian lapdog, DPRK is Chinese lapdog, Ukraine is American lapdog), which will at some point kill some of us here.

Almost all countries, recognized or not, are not lapdogs. No mules of gold can equal position of absolute authority, however small. Countries can be very dependent, but almost every significant attempt to strain the leash will weaken it.
The only exception is countries with leadership literally appointed from outside, with their true sovereignty coming from foreign power.
I.e. at most some french not-a-colonies - and that's one big reason they fail from a wrong glance if french bayonets are a moment too late.

IRGC(Iran really) can get houthis to act for perceived common good. Or they themselves can do it, perhaps with Iranian support.
Order them around - and what will happen for a no? Will Iran bite?

In practice, Iran controls pretty much everything related to the Houthis. The oil trade is their political lifeline. The weapons are their physical lifeline.
They managed to secure control over some of Yemen through this external support but overall they're really not in a position to be picking fights.
Attacking Red Sea shipping is picking a fight with the biggest opponent you can imagine, and a lot of other ones.
The campaign starting in October 2023 is no coincidence. That was when Iran's proxies struck.

I found no basis for the idea that the Houthis acted independently in this war.

 

[Ainen]

In practice, Iran controls pretty much everything related to the Houthis. The oil trade is their political lifeline. The weapons are their physical lifeline.

With all due respect, main oil supplier to Houthi areas is UAE, and Iran (by tankers) isn't even in the top 3.

Ability of Iran to deliver weapons there is also small, as was explained before. It's just basic geography.

Saudi coalition tried close blockade from land and sea, it didn't stop/seriously affect weapons production.

And if anyone is dependent in this couple specifically in oil part, it's Iran. Houthi threat indirectly prevents squeezing sanctions on its oil trade.
Not the other way around.

They managed to secure control over some of Yemen through this external support but overall they're really not in a position to be picking fights.

External support? Especially against a half-Merc force with government sitting abroad?

They're under siege for over a decade, during active phase (2015-19) - from all directions.
The whole point of that blockade was premise of cutting "outside support". Result was, this help was small enough to pass through anyway, and inconsequential enough to not matter.

With all due respect, if Europeans plan to solve red sea on this, ammo is not nearly the main problem (CENTCOM does have ammo right now, though people guiding it in signal came to the situation as if out of blue).
Most thought it's Iran at some point. I did. It just an idea that doesn't hold.
Training, reconnaissance, coordination, high end weapons(mostly parts), weapon design support. More is just hard to get through.

Attacking Red Sea shipping is picking a fight with the biggest opponent you can imagine, and a lot of other ones.
The campaign starting in October 2023 is no coincidence. That was when Iran's proxies struck.

Yes, they long since found out why Americans don't have free healthcare.

October 2023 bloodbath was greated by whole mid eastern street, not just Iranian axis.
Granted, most Arab nations (governments) avoided it as best as they could, but basic premise stands. But it's still basic truth that general Arabic population isn't exactly full of Israel lovers, and thr poorer, the more religious country - the more zealous the hate is.

The thing is that houthi movement, in north Yemen, is a popular religious movement, surviving mostly on local support of tribes and rather hopeless population. Population long since cut from basic necessities (check the size of Hodeidah oil terminal bombed by US; it's pitifully small, compared to population it supplies).

Attacking Israel (and America) is in Houthi basic motto, and, unlike Iran, their leadership didn't really have much opportunity (and decades of popular demand) to just get things comfortable.
It brings them direct legitimacy and popularity. Especially as opposed to southern government, which never can do anything by itself.

 

[martinbayer]

That's a gross misunderstanding of MENA politics.

Except that Israel is an outsize factor/influencer/dominator in US world politics at large.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Well, more than a century after Lawrence of Arabia, Saudi Arabia is still a nominal Western ally, and is not firing missiles at places and things deemed to be Western/global interests.

Very nominally.

Guess where the theology and ideoligy of Al Qaeda was developed?

Understanding that Iran is very actively spreading its "Islamic Revolution" and that Houthis are one part of its proxy network, is a crucial step in combating the Houthis, as we can derive from that, that if the Houthis are not purged from western Yemen via a combined ground operation, they should at least be cut off from their arms supplier Iran.

And Saudi Arabia is the theological/ideological base for AQ, ISIL/DAESH, and HAMAS.

 

[Ainen]

Very nominally.

Guess where the theology and ideoligy of Al Qaeda was developed?

It was not developed under close state supervision with specific goal to bomb the WTC, though.

Saudis are perhaps not the most able, but they are not unwilling. And rich!

 

[Big_Zukini]

With all due respect, main oil supplier to Houthi areas is UAE, and Iran (by tankers) isn't even in the top 3.

Given that shadow fleets routinely disguise as belonging to other nations, how exactly did you gather this information?
As far as I'm aware:

• There is no open source information other than tracking these ships in real time (difficult because they deactivate AIS frequently).
• There is only one regional oil producing entity with significant oil sanctions.
• Houthis are under sanctions and non-sanctioned producers would be properly deterred from getting near them.

This leaves very little doubt about the main supplier. But again if you have concrete data that addresses spoofing tactics then I'd gladly take a look and admit my mistake.

Ability of Iran to deliver weapons there is also small, as was explained before. It's just basic geography.

Saudi coalition tried close blockade from land and sea, it didn't stop/seriously affect weapons production.

"Blockade" can mean many things. For a fact, under this blockade, ships were still docking in Hodeidah and Ras Isa, and planes were still landing in Sanaa.
That means weapons were shipped and flown into Yemen.
Iran intelligently shifted final assembly to its destination and therefore its logistics from large complete products to small components.

For example despite an aerial and naval campaign to prevent weapons smuggling to Lebanon, Iran could still easily fly in weapons on passenger planes knowing these won't be shot down.

And if anyone is dependent in this couple specifically in oil part, it's Iran. Houthi threat indirectly prevents squeezing sanctions on its oil trade.

Ok and? One benefits more absolutely. One benefits more relatively. That's literally a feature in every alliance ever. What's your point?

Result was, this help was small enough to pass through anyway, and inconsequential enough to not matter.

So inconsequential that Houthis are still regularly firing Iranian ballistic missiles and drones over a year and a half in?
I woke up just 5 hours ago from a Houthi MRBM.

Granted, most Arab nations (governments) avoided it as best as they could, but basic premise stands. But it's still basic truth that general Arabic population isn't exactly full of Israel lovers, and thr poorer, the more religious country - the more zealous the hate is.

Arab nations don't act out of such emotions. If you think any of them have any sympathy to Hamas, you're very much mistaken.
The Houthis did not act of sympathy or hatred to anyone when they joined the war. That was an Iranian order.

Attacking Israel (and America) is in Houthi basic motto, and, unlike Iran, their leadership didn't really have much opportunity (and decades of popular demand) to just get things comfortable.
It brings them direct legitimacy and popularity. Especially as opposed to southern government, which never can do anything by itself.

Terrorism as a way to gain popularity among civilians is a method that did not stand the test of time in the middle east.

Except that Israel is an outsize factor/influencer/dominator in US world politics at large.

Oh my dog we're in the "(((their))) lobby" again?

1. How is that related?

2. Israel does not have outsized influence.
There are many aspects to influence and cooperation. Industrially, Israel has little to no influence on the US, certainly not like Europe does. Not nearly.
Security-wise, however, that's a different story.
Europe by and large neglected its security, failed to secure its own territory not to mention any global commitment. It meanwhile boosted their own enemies economies while ignoring American warnings.
Israel meanwhile far outspends (on defense) every NATO nation, actively fights its enemies, and asks of the US not how to get out of a fight but how to finish one.
Given that, the US knows Israel won't flip flop on security and will persistently act in that interest.
Therefore it makes much more sense to treat Israel as exceptionally credible in matters of defense.

3. And yet, perception of Israeli influence is exaggerated. US-Israel just as frequently butt heads as they cooperate. And by "butting heads" I mean on the first sign of American pressure, Israel typically folds.

 

[starviking]

Very nominally.

Guess where the theology and ideoligy of Al Qaeda was developed?

Yes, but we are concerned with more direct military threats.

 

[Foo Fighter]

A major part of this is whether they can ALL accept ONE chain of command and ONE mission, rather than the usual SNAFU with each nation wombling around on bad acid drops.

Pear variety myself........

 

[uk 75]

If European nations re-route their ships as many are already doing, do we need to waste money and ammo on a country in which we have zero interest?

 

[Scott Kenny]

If European nations re-route their ships as many are already doing, do we need to waste money and ammo on a country in which we have zero interest?

At the cost of how much more time to delivery and how much more fuel burned?

 

[Big_Zukini]

If European nations re-route their ships as many are already doing, do we need to waste money and ammo on a country in which we have zero interest?

Are you talking about the first reroute or the one that'll come right after everyone picks up on the west being pushovers?

 

[Scott Kenny]

Are you talking about the first reroute or the one that'll come right after everyone picks up on the west being pushovers?

What "other reroute"? Ships are already just saying F it and going around Africa.

Going east through Malacca/SCS/Pacific/Panama Canal is probably not an option timewise.

 

[Big_Zukini]

What "other reroute"? Ships are already just saying F it and going around Africa.

Going east through Malacca/SCS/Pacific/Panama Canal is probably not an option timewise.

And how stable and peaceful you think Africa is? Not long til some tribes there get their hands on some drones or helicopters and start doing more serious piracy, forcing ships to steer away from land and ports along the way?

Or maybe we can look a little closer to home. We got Iran-sympathizer Algeria, terrorist hotspot Libya. I'm sure they're properly deterred but for the right price...
You know, Russia is a solid candidate for sponsoring the Houthis. I heard there was talk about them supplying AShMs.
Not out of the realm of possibility of this happening in Africa where Russia is making serious gains.