Wuhan Virus

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sferrin said:
3 hrs to design a vaccine and 6 months before they can start trials? What's wrong with this picture?
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A few hours for initial design of the vaccine protein sequence. A few weeks to create the messenger RNA that would actually deliver the protein sequence. Then a couple of months to conduct safety and efficacy trials in animals. The goal is Phase 1 human trials in three months, which would be the land speed record for such a process, half the time of the previous fastest vaccine development for something comparable (Zika). And the odds are that the virus outbreak will have burned out by then anyway.

Researchers Are Racing to Make a Coronavirus Vaccine. Will It Help? (Published 2020)

New technology and better coordination have sped up development. But a coronavirus vaccine is still months — and most likely years — away.
www.nytimes.com
 
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U.S. ramps up anti-coronavirus measures at border as impact spreads

The United States ramped up its response to the coronavirus epidemic on Friday, declaring a public health emergency and saying it would halt entry to foreign nationals who had been to China within the 14-day incubation period.
www.reuters.com

Italy cabinet to discuss declaring coronavirus emergency after first two cases confirmed

Italy's government is set to discuss declaring a state of national emergency after confirming the first two cases of the new coronavirus in the country since the outbreak in China, a cabinet statement said on Friday.
www.reuters.com
 
Right now Italian gov. suspended all the flights from and to China.
 

To mask or not to mask: confusion spreads over coronavirus protection

"Do not wear a mask if you are well" read a warning plastered across the front of Singapore's main newspaper on Friday, as authorities around the world sought to calm panic buying of masks seen as a guard against the fast-spreading coronavirus.
www.reuters.com

Singapore bans China travelers to keep out coronavirus

Singapore said on Friday it was banning entry to all Chinese visitors and foreigners with a recent history of travel to China in some of the most far-reaching moves worldwide to deter the fast-spreading coronavirus.
www.reuters.com
 
TomS said:
sferrin said:
3 hrs to design a vaccine and 6 months before they can start trials? What's wrong with this picture?
Click to expand...

A few hours for initial design of the vaccine protein sequence. A few weeks to create the messenger RNA that would actually deliver the protein sequence. Then a couple of months to conduct safety and efficacy trials in animals. The goal is Phase 1 human trials in three months, which would be the land speed record for such a process, half the time of the previous fastest vaccine development for something comparable (Zika). And the odds are that the virus outbreak will have burned out by then anyway.

Researchers Are Racing to Make a Coronavirus Vaccine. Will It Help? (Published 2020)

New technology and better coordination have sped up development. But a coronavirus vaccine is still months — and most likely years — away.
www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...
I wonder if we'll ever get to the point where we can reliably simulate it to the point we can skip the animal step.
 
Zootycoon said:
I’m no expert, but from the description here I don’t think this is Spanish Flu 2.0
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Interesting discussion of the stats in this blog by the author Nicola Griffith:
"As of right now (17:30 UTC-8, 26 January 2020) the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has an infectivity rate, or R0 (pronounced R-zero) of 2.6 and appears to be accelerating. (For comparison, the flu pandemic of 1918 had an R0 = 2, and ordinary seasonal flu = 1-2.)

The 2019-nCoV fatality rate (the number of people infected who subsequently die of the virus) = 4%. (1918 flu pandemic = 2%, seasonal flu = <0.1%.)"

2019-nCoV: the new coronavirus

I’ve been idly following along as the CDC reports on the Wuhan coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. Then my interest sharpened…
nicolagriffith.com
 

Factbox: Countries evacuating nationals from China virus areas

A growing number of countries around the world are evacuating or planning to evacuate diplomatic staff and citizens from parts of China hit by the new coronavirus.
www.reuters.com

Factbox: Companies feel impact of coronavirus outbreak in China

Companies around the world have warned that a coronavirus outbreak in China could disrupt supply chains or hurt bottom lines as factories and shops shut and airlines suspend flights.
www.reuters.com

China says U.S. move to raise travel warning is inappropriate

The United States' decision to raise its warning level for travel to China is not in line with the facts and is inappropriate, a spokeswoman at the Chinese foreign ministry, Hua Chunying, said on Friday on the ministry's website.
www.reuters.com


'Burning bodies in secret': China accused as coronavirus infections soar

Disturbing report says China cremating bodies in secret hinting death toll "way too low"
www.nzherald.co.nz
 
WTH US? Do better. (Of course they have to weigh it against bringing back to the US but I'd think there'd be a way to deal with that.)
 
Hood said:
The UK Department of Health today with the latest figures gives a fatality rate of 2%. Buts its far too early to estimate how severe it is in these early stages.

https://theconversation.com/is-the-...andemic-a-biologist-explains-the-clues-130766
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My take on the Lancet/BBC data was based on the average age of the 99 hospitalised, being 61 and was combined with having pre existing conditions.The equivalent for the 1918 Spanish Flu was recorded as merely 28 and it took people irrespective of their prior health.

All the reports say there’s not a statistical sample yet to calculate a figure, and I guess that equally applies to the above.
 

More airlines suspend flights to and from China amid coronavirus fears

A growing number of airlines have suspended flights in and out of China Friday as seat cancellations rise.
www.cnbc.com

Major U.S. airlines cancel China flights as government steps up warnings

All three major U.S. airlines announced the cancellation of flights to mainland China on Friday as the U.S. government unveiled additional steps to curb the spread of the coronavirus, which originated in China.
www.reuters.com

U.S. declares coronavirus health emergency, bars foreign nationals who visited China

WASHINGTON Reuters) - The Trump administration, while insisting the risk to Americans from coronavirus is low, nevertheless declared a public health emergency on Friday and announced the extraordinary step of barring entry to the United States of foreign nationals who have...
www.reuters.com

Virus outbreak, data stoke growth worry to drive stocks lower

Wall Street's major averages tumbled more than 1.5% on Friday, sealing its worst week in six months, as the spreading coronavirus outbreak, coupled with sluggish U.S. economic data and a mixed batch of corporate earnings, fueled concerns about global growth.
www.reuters.com
 

Central American countries limit entry from China to fight coronavirus

Central American governments have imposed travel restrictions to try to keep out the coronavirus, including barring travelers who have recently visited China, officials said on Friday.
www.reuters.com

Panama Canal says ships must report contact with coronavirus countries

Vessels arriving at the Panama Canal must inform Panamanian authorities if they have traveled to ports located in countries that have reported confirmed cases of coronavirus infection, the Panama Canal Authority said in a statement.
www.reuters.com
 
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Outrage, blame traded after Gaza hospital strike | Reuters Video

The White House says U.S. President Joe Biden will pose "tough questions" to Israeli leaders as he begins his now-upended Middle East tour in Israel on Wednesday (October 18), after hundreds of people died in a Gaza hospital blast the day before, with Palestinian and Israeli officials accusing...
www.reuters.com
 

Coronavirus: Worldwide cases overtake 2003 Sars outbreak

The number of worldwide cases of the new coronavirus surpasses that of a similar outbreak in 2003.
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: Doctors fight back against misinformation online

Scientists, researchers and doctors take to social media to help keep people informed.
www.bbc.com
"Please don't think that if you read someone's tweet and it has been retweeted a lot, it's an accurate source of information. It is not. Look for reputable organisations to get your information from," he said, citing the WHO as one example.
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Unfortunately the WHO has damaged it's own credibility to at least some degree during this crisis so far.
 
Grey Havoc said:
Unfortunately the WHO has damaged it's own credibility to at least some degree during this crisis so far.
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Looks to me like the WHO can't win a trick. Remember the reaction when they declared the Swine Flu outbreak a pandemic? It wasn't. They got their fingers burnt and have been cautious ever since. This is just an example of that. They are still learning their way IMO.
 
Kadija_Man said:
Looks to me like the WHO can't win a trick. Remember the reaction when they declared the Swine Flu outbreak a pandemic? It wasn't. They got their fingers burnt and have been cautious ever since. This is just an example of that. They are still learning their way IMO.
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Better to be safe than sorry I guess. Things like this can get out of hand extremely fast.
 
An older title sequence that I'm surprised has not popped up sooner, but will no doubt crop up in many of the conspiracy theories about this virus...

 
At least a couple of conspiracy theories that have been going around have been centered on Wuhan's BSL-4 lab, the only public civilian one in the PRC.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com

Mystery lab next to coronavirus epicentre

Just 30km from where the coronavirus originated, there is a mystery lab.
www.nzherald.co.nz

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com

And at least some people will take this latest development as 'where there is smoke, there is fire', no doubt:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...anently-suspended-from-twitter-for-harassment

A Pro-Trump Blog Doxed A Chinese Scientist It Falsely Accused Of Creating The Coronavirus As A Bioweapon

Zero Hedge's Twitter account was permanently suspended Friday, following the publication of the scientist's name.
www.buzzfeednews.com
 
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TomcatViP said:
Something a little bit lighter to relieve some of the pressure:

In the United States, Google Trends calculated that 57% of the people that searched one of those terms searched for “beer virus,” and the remaining 43% searched for “corona beer virus.”
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The coronavirus has nothing to do with Corona beer. But, some people seem to think so.

The search terms 'corona beer' and 'corona beer virus' have surged on Google in the recent week as the outbreak continues to spread and claim lives.
www.usatoday.com
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Don’t forget the slice of lime....
 

China facing global isolation as virus toll rises

China faced mounting isolation in the face of increasing international travel curbs and flight suspensions on Saturday, as the death toll from a spreading coronavirus outbreak rose to 259.
www.reuters.com

Trump's expanded travel ban targets Nigeria, five other countries

U.S. President Donald Trump issued an expanded version of his travel ban on Friday that targets prospective immigrants from Nigeria and five other countries, a move that could affect thousands of people and reignite debate on whether the policy is discriminatory.
www.reuters.com
 
Zootycoon said:
My take on the Lancet/BBC data was based on the average age of the 99 hospitalised, being 61 and was combined with having pre existing conditions.The equivalent for the 1918 Spanish Flu was recorded as merely 28 and it took people irrespective of their prior health.

All the reports say there’s not a statistical sample yet to calculate a figure, and I guess that equally applies to the above.
Click to expand...

While I agree with your conclusion that we likely need more data - and with a newly species-hopped virus we may be chasing a moving target as it mutates in its new host - age as a factor is complicated by modern research indicating Spanish Flu killed a lot of its victims via a cytokine storm - basically the immune system going berserk - which is why it killed so many young, fit people. Typical flus kill the young and the old, so we likely don't know which way this one will end up going.
 

1.2tn yuan to be pumped into Chinese markets to fight coronavirus slump

China’s central bank also announces support for hospitals at frontline of battle against outbreak
www.theguardian.com

(The Washington Post via msn.com)

Fears of new virus trigger anti-China sentiment worldwide

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — A scary new virus from China has spread around the world. So has rising anti-Chinese sentiment, calls for a full travel ban on Chinese visitors and indignities for Chinese and other Asians.
apnews.com
 

Chinese authorities threaten to kill pet cats and dogs over coronavirus fears

Officials have told locals to "deal with" their animals after an expert warned pets could spread the deadly virus to humans - despite the World Health Organisation (WHO) saying that's not true
www.dailystar.co.uk

China says Wuhan coronavirus victims who die should be quickly cremated without funerals as death toll rises

As the Wuhan virus continues to claim lives, Chinese authorities issued regulations banning funerals for victims and requiring immediate cremation.
www.businessinsider.com
 
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