Shenyang FC-31 demonstrators / J-35 naval fighter / J-35A land-based version
- Thread starter Foxglove
- Start date
- Joined
- 1 April 2006
- Messages
- 11,032
- Reaction score
- 8,373
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Do you talk about that 'other heavy fighter'? Tnx.
Yes, of course I know that. But didn't SAC use all the ties on top of Party and MoD to get ability to build a contender anyway? I had such an impression.siegecrossbow said:
Do you talk about that 'other heavy fighter'? Tnx.
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
It all depends how much hours of life do current chinese planes have. If we assume 2020/2021 as a point in time when this new plane could enter service with plaaf - oldest j10s will then be some 18 years old. Times 230 hours per airframe per year (1.3 pilots per fighter airframe, like USAF?) gives little over 4000 hours. While it is possible j10 was designed to have such short life, it seems more likely j10 was designed, like every other plane of its time, to have longer life, possibly 6 to 8 thousand hours. So, realistically, i dont see this new plane replacing j10s when/if it enters service.
j8f/h are not really older than j10 on average but since they are of old design, it is plausible they would need replacement after 4000 hours. But for them we have j20s which should have little trouble replacing 150 j8s and then go on replacing first j11s.
by 2021 all the pre-E j7 models should be out of service. Even the early E models should be approaching 25-30 years, though they seem to be flying less, perhaps 170 hours per year per airframe (not per pilot, of course). Still, we are talking about 4000-5000 hours for a plane of old design so again, replacement will be in order. I believe that is what j10b will be for as it suits that role perfectly, schedule wise, ability wise, cost wist, etc.
this new plane may still squeeze itself within plaaf but then that means fewer j20 and fewer j10b. Basically low volume production of j20, perhaps 12-16 per year, 24-28 j10b per year. So the new plane can get in there with 16-20 airframes per year.
The new plane seems perfect for carrier fleet, on paper, but coming just 6-7 years after j15 became active, it really means whole j15 show was an expensive training course, not anything resembling a proper carrier fighter project. Frankly, having a small fleet of carriers, which china will have for some decades to come, doesnt really offer economic justification for having two separate small fleets of carrier planes. Its better to kill off j15 then, as soon as this new plane is ready, bite the bullet and forget about the money spent on j15.
It all depends how much hours of life do current chinese planes have. If we assume 2020/2021 as a point in time when this new plane could enter service with plaaf - oldest j10s will then be some 18 years old. Times 230 hours per airframe per year (1.3 pilots per fighter airframe, like USAF?) gives little over 4000 hours. While it is possible j10 was designed to have such short life, it seems more likely j10 was designed, like every other plane of its time, to have longer life, possibly 6 to 8 thousand hours. So, realistically, i dont see this new plane replacing j10s when/if it enters service.
j8f/h are not really older than j10 on average but since they are of old design, it is plausible they would need replacement after 4000 hours. But for them we have j20s which should have little trouble replacing 150 j8s and then go on replacing first j11s.
by 2021 all the pre-E j7 models should be out of service. Even the early E models should be approaching 25-30 years, though they seem to be flying less, perhaps 170 hours per year per airframe (not per pilot, of course). Still, we are talking about 4000-5000 hours for a plane of old design so again, replacement will be in order. I believe that is what j10b will be for as it suits that role perfectly, schedule wise, ability wise, cost wist, etc.
this new plane may still squeeze itself within plaaf but then that means fewer j20 and fewer j10b. Basically low volume production of j20, perhaps 12-16 per year, 24-28 j10b per year. So the new plane can get in there with 16-20 airframes per year.
The new plane seems perfect for carrier fleet, on paper, but coming just 6-7 years after j15 became active, it really means whole j15 show was an expensive training course, not anything resembling a proper carrier fighter project. Frankly, having a small fleet of carriers, which china will have for some decades to come, doesnt really offer economic justification for having two separate small fleets of carrier planes. Its better to kill off j15 then, as soon as this new plane is ready, bite the bullet and forget about the money spent on j15.
siegecrossbow
I really should change my personal text
- Joined
- 12 March 2012
- Messages
- 511
- Reaction score
- 1,274
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
The SAC heavy fighter was reportedly larger than the J-20. First flight will utilize WS-10 engines. It will employ conventional aerodynamic configuration and feature larger weapons bays than those present on the J-20.
The aircraft was supposed to come out early January but no one in Shenyang saw anything. Don't know whether it would ever show up.
flateric said:
The SAC heavy fighter was reportedly larger than the J-20. First flight will utilize WS-10 engines. It will employ conventional aerodynamic configuration and feature larger weapons bays than those present on the J-20.
The aircraft was supposed to come out early January but no one in Shenyang saw anything. Don't know whether it would ever show up.
- Joined
- 1 April 2006
- Messages
- 11,032
- Reaction score
- 8,373
RSF
Cocidius
- Joined
- 13 February 2010
- Messages
- 36
- Reaction score
- 5
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
China Defense Blog is reporting that the mystery SAC aircraft is heading to the AVIC 623rd Institute Xi'an. They also have an interesting op ed on the hypothetical SAC medium class stealth fighter.
China Defense Blog is reporting that the mystery SAC aircraft is heading to the AVIC 623rd Institute Xi'an. They also have an interesting op ed on the hypothetical SAC medium class stealth fighter.
Attachments
- Joined
- 21 December 2006
- Messages
- 1,146
- Reaction score
- 737
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Blog article from Flight Global:
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/asian-skies//2012/06/chinese-j-21-emerges-well-some.html
It's a STOVL twin! Twice the fun of the F-35B. ;D
Blog article from Flight Global:
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/asian-skies//2012/06/chinese-j-21-emerges-well-some.html
It's a STOVL twin! Twice the fun of the F-35B. ;D
- Joined
- 17 October 2006
- Messages
- 2,354
- Reaction score
- 988
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
My bet is that it is an RCS model. But most likely a generic one to be used to test bits and pieces (canopies, antennas, edge treatments) like BAE's Replica.
Shown in hopes that the West will say "look, the Chinese are going all-in on 5th GenerationTM!" and barrel merrily forward with the F-35, which regardless of any merits it may possess was not designed for a WestPac scenario, because nobody but nobody was thinking about Second Island Chains when the KPPs was wrote.
The Chinese are entirely capable of reading the history of the MiG-25 and Tu-22M.
My bet is that it is an RCS model. But most likely a generic one to be used to test bits and pieces (canopies, antennas, edge treatments) like BAE's Replica.
Shown in hopes that the West will say "look, the Chinese are going all-in on 5th GenerationTM!" and barrel merrily forward with the F-35, which regardless of any merits it may possess was not designed for a WestPac scenario, because nobody but nobody was thinking about Second Island Chains when the KPPs was wrote.
The Chinese are entirely capable of reading the history of the MiG-25 and Tu-22M.
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
What a joke of a statement. We all know you don't like the F-35 but must you really start making up fanciful scenarios/statements to justify your hatred?
LowObservable said:
What a joke of a statement. We all know you don't like the F-35 but must you really start making up fanciful scenarios/statements to justify your hatred?
siegecrossbow
I really should change my personal text
- Joined
- 12 March 2012
- Messages
- 511
- Reaction score
- 1,274
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Highly doubt that it is simply an RCS model. Given the fact that the plane was last sighted at Yanliang it is probably used for stress testing.
LowObservable said:
Highly doubt that it is simply an RCS model. Given the fact that the plane was last sighted at Yanliang it is probably used for stress testing.
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Note the conspiracy theory by the F-35 hater.
That's what they've been reduced to as that program proceeds and country after country selects it over their ECD favorites.
While LRSB might be a better option for the US in a China scenario the Chinese could actually use an F-35 type in the Taiwan scenario or others.
That's actually what the thread is about, you know, the Chinese J-19.
LowObservable said:
Note the conspiracy theory by the F-35 hater.
That's what they've been reduced to as that program proceeds and country after country selects it over their ECD favorites.
While LRSB might be a better option for the US in a China scenario the Chinese could actually use an F-35 type in the Taiwan scenario or others.
That's actually what the thread is about, you know, the Chinese J-19.
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Messages
- 3,623
- Reaction score
- 3,688
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
No new post from You since I left for school on Monday ???
Anyway it reportedly arrived on Monday at Xi'an-Yanglian,... if correct would hint more a true prototype.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS9GSVGO7yo
Deino
No new post from You since I left for school on Monday ???
Anyway it reportedly arrived on Monday at Xi'an-Yanglian,... if correct would hint more a true prototype.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS9GSVGO7yo
Deino
Attachments
RSF
Cocidius
- Joined
- 13 February 2010
- Messages
- 36
- Reaction score
- 5
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
With that amount of security force protection that's certainly not a mockup or UAV! Nice to see you back Deino, I posted what I could in your absence (with help from Flateric) but there's just not a great deal of info yet other than roadside photos.
The Flight Global article I think is a bit premature in calling this is a STOVL fighter. It's to early to draw conclusions and as with the J-20 it will have it's own Chinese goals and metrics which won't necessarily match those of the existing US stealth fighter aircraft/programs.
Since SAC is developing the J-15 for future carrier development perhaps this will be a naval stealth fighter?
With that amount of security force protection that's certainly not a mockup or UAV! Nice to see you back Deino, I posted what I could in your absence (with help from Flateric) but there's just not a great deal of info yet other than roadside photos.
The Flight Global article I think is a bit premature in calling this is a STOVL fighter. It's to early to draw conclusions and as with the J-20 it will have it's own Chinese goals and metrics which won't necessarily match those of the existing US stealth fighter aircraft/programs.
Since SAC is developing the J-15 for future carrier development perhaps this will be a naval stealth fighter?
- Joined
- 17 October 2006
- Messages
- 2,354
- Reaction score
- 988
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
This is China, people. That is not "force protection", it is theater.
It was done deliberately, in order to send a signal to somebody.
The audience is therefore either domestic (look how strong the PLA will be in a few years!) or international, or both.
If it's intended for an international audience, the goal is surely not to telegraph where they're going. (So we can adjust our plans accordingly.) It's not the same situation as the J-20 (which was flying and would soon be detected by intel agencies, hence the stage-managed rollout). So the idea is to send a message that is advantageous to China.
Historically, some US actors have often reacted to emerging threats symmetrically or directly (like the F-15's Mach 2.5 capability and the use of the Backfire as justification for the B-1). The Chinese can read and know this.
So what is the message being sent by this deliberate act?
By the way, this isn't a "conspiracy theory". Are the Chinese conspiring with themselves?
This is China, people. That is not "force protection", it is theater.
It was done deliberately, in order to send a signal to somebody.
The audience is therefore either domestic (look how strong the PLA will be in a few years!) or international, or both.
If it's intended for an international audience, the goal is surely not to telegraph where they're going. (So we can adjust our plans accordingly.) It's not the same situation as the J-20 (which was flying and would soon be detected by intel agencies, hence the stage-managed rollout). So the idea is to send a message that is advantageous to China.
Historically, some US actors have often reacted to emerging threats symmetrically or directly (like the F-15's Mach 2.5 capability and the use of the Backfire as justification for the B-1). The Chinese can read and know this.
So what is the message being sent by this deliberate act?
By the way, this isn't a "conspiracy theory". Are the Chinese conspiring with themselves?
Kryptid
ACCESS: Secret
- Joined
- 12 March 2009
- Messages
- 281
- Reaction score
- 41
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
The idea of this aircraft being nothing more than a mock-up for deceptive reasons is an interesting one. I have to wonder why this type of thing isn't done on a more regular basis world-wide. Fooling your enemies into thinking that you have something that you don't has its merits. Or perhaps building several different designs in mock-up form alongside a genuine aircraft to further the confusion. I'm reminded of the black tiles laid down at Groom Lake in the shape of a non-existent aircraft so that Soviet satellites might be fooled into believing it was real.
The idea of this aircraft being nothing more than a mock-up for deceptive reasons is an interesting one. I have to wonder why this type of thing isn't done on a more regular basis world-wide. Fooling your enemies into thinking that you have something that you don't has its merits. Or perhaps building several different designs in mock-up form alongside a genuine aircraft to further the confusion. I'm reminded of the black tiles laid down at Groom Lake in the shape of a non-existent aircraft so that Soviet satellites might be fooled into believing it was real.
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Messages
- 3,623
- Reaction score
- 3,688
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Truely an interesting theory, but I have to admit that there too many things, which actually fit quite nicely into reports of what was expected to happen sooner or later.
As such I'm quite optimistic that this is indeed SAC's new bird, which is going to be tested at Xi'an-Yanliang since all structural test experties are concentrated in Yanliang. Each and every major aircraft program since the early days was tested there.
Quite interesting, most "Big Shrimps" are common that the PLAAF will not indroduce this type - at least not yet (will concentrate on the J-10B instead) - but the PLAN will do to complement and later replace the J-15.
Deino
Truely an interesting theory, but I have to admit that there too many things, which actually fit quite nicely into reports of what was expected to happen sooner or later.
As such I'm quite optimistic that this is indeed SAC's new bird, which is going to be tested at Xi'an-Yanliang since all structural test experties are concentrated in Yanliang. Each and every major aircraft program since the early days was tested there.
Quite interesting, most "Big Shrimps" are common that the PLAAF will not indroduce this type - at least not yet (will concentrate on the J-10B instead) - but the PLAN will do to complement and later replace the J-15.
Deino
Attachments
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
No, what is the conspiracy theory is your laughable assertion that the Chinese are somehow using mockups to encourage/force the Western allies to wholeheartedly go with the F-35 which you have also asserted is somehow flawed and not capable of operating in a WestPac theatre of operations... :
LowObservable said:
No, what is the conspiracy theory is your laughable assertion that the Chinese are somehow using mockups to encourage/force the Western allies to wholeheartedly go with the F-35 which you have also asserted is somehow flawed and not capable of operating in a WestPac theatre of operations... :
- Joined
- 17 October 2006
- Messages
- 2,354
- Reaction score
- 988
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Seriously, GTX. That would be disinformation, not conspiracy.
However, I'll cop to being insufficiently specific in my original comment. The JSF KPPs, defined mostly in 1995 and refined by 2000, did reflect WestPac needs as they were then understood.
They did not reflect the WestPac theater as we understand it now, which is rather different. That is fact, not opinion.
This applies to every other current combat aircraft, so I am rather puzzled as to why people want to drag Eurocanards into the discussion.
Seriously, GTX. That would be disinformation, not conspiracy.
However, I'll cop to being insufficiently specific in my original comment. The JSF KPPs, defined mostly in 1995 and refined by 2000, did reflect WestPac needs as they were then understood.
They did not reflect the WestPac theater as we understand it now, which is rather different. That is fact, not opinion.
This applies to every other current combat aircraft, so I am rather puzzled as to why people want to drag Eurocanards into the discussion.
- Joined
- 6 November 2010
- Messages
- 4,612
- Reaction score
- 4,063
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
The implicit suggestion is that your comment was meant to further the interests of Eurocanard-manufacturers, thereby reducing your credibility. Maybe the suggestion is meant to do away with the need to discuss the explanation you offered?LowObservable said:
Not laughable then, in Kryptid's opinion. I agree.Kryptid said:
- Joined
- 17 October 2006
- Messages
- 2,354
- Reaction score
- 988
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Arjen - Lots of examples exist. Consider all the ATF artwork issued before the roll-outs of the YF-22 and YF-23: Aside from two distorted art concepts issued in late 1989/early 1990, all were deliberately deceptive.
Where does a relatively small, single-engine LO fighter fit into China's medium-term plans, in any event? They don't need expeditionary support for a combined-arms war, and their next step in mainstream TacAir seems to be the J-10B.
Arjen - Lots of examples exist. Consider all the ATF artwork issued before the roll-outs of the YF-22 and YF-23: Aside from two distorted art concepts issued in late 1989/early 1990, all were deliberately deceptive.
Where does a relatively small, single-engine LO fighter fit into China's medium-term plans, in any event? They don't need expeditionary support for a combined-arms war, and their next step in mainstream TacAir seems to be the J-10B.
RSF
Cocidius
- Joined
- 13 February 2010
- Messages
- 36
- Reaction score
- 5
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
I have to agree, the J-10B is likely the near term future aircraft for the Chinese. I also completely agree with the assertion that parading a new stealth fighter type around the streets with a large security presence is clearly staged, much like the "first flights" of the J-20.
However I'm unsure that this is a mockup. This type of PR buildup is clearly in keeping with what we saw with the J-20 Program. I think we'll see a real aircraft in the future revealed with much fanfare.
The big question as already discussed is who is the is intended audience for this new stealth fighter parade?
BTW - good call in changing this thread to J-21. Hopefully you won't have to change it again to F60!
I have to agree, the J-10B is likely the near term future aircraft for the Chinese. I also completely agree with the assertion that parading a new stealth fighter type around the streets with a large security presence is clearly staged, much like the "first flights" of the J-20.
However I'm unsure that this is a mockup. This type of PR buildup is clearly in keeping with what we saw with the J-20 Program. I think we'll see a real aircraft in the future revealed with much fanfare.
The big question as already discussed is who is the is intended audience for this new stealth fighter parade?
BTW - good call in changing this thread to J-21. Hopefully you won't have to change it again to F60!
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
[quote author=LowObservable link=topic=13939.msg155388#msg155388 date=1341227438
They did not reflect the WestPac theater as we understand it now, which is rather different.
Ok then, please enlighten us as to exactly what aspects of this WestPac theatre scenario are so different and needing of consideration when it comes to the F-35 or any other platform then???
[quote author=LowObservable link=topic=13939.msg155388#msg155388 date=1341227438
They did not reflect the WestPac theater as we understand it now, which is rather different.
Ok then, please enlighten us as to exactly what aspects of this WestPac theatre scenario are so different and needing of consideration when it comes to the F-35 or any other platform then???
- Joined
- 3 June 2011
- Messages
- 17,871
- Reaction score
- 10,919
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
And if we quit and started over, not only would we have flushed tens of billions down the toilet for nothing, the situation would change yet again between this hypothetical new aircraft's RFP and production. The days of being able to turn on a dime left us in the 60's.
LowObservable said:
And if we quit and started over, not only would we have flushed tens of billions down the toilet for nothing, the situation would change yet again between this hypothetical new aircraft's RFP and production. The days of being able to turn on a dime left us in the 60's.
- Joined
- 17 October 2006
- Messages
- 2,354
- Reaction score
- 988
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
GTX - I don't think a lot of attention was being paid in 1995 to China's potential emergence as a high-tech military power.
I don't think that anyone would have predicted in 1995 (for instance) that China would have a mature-looking stealth prototype, multiple AEWs, an active carrier program and ASBM before JSF entered service (which was supposed to be now). Or that China would seem to be actively pushing a strategy of disputing US freedom of action within the second island chain. This was mainly because even the Chinese were not thinking about it then.
The attribute that becomes much more important in that environment is range.
GTX - I don't think a lot of attention was being paid in 1995 to China's potential emergence as a high-tech military power.
I don't think that anyone would have predicted in 1995 (for instance) that China would have a mature-looking stealth prototype, multiple AEWs, an active carrier program and ASBM before JSF entered service (which was supposed to be now). Or that China would seem to be actively pushing a strategy of disputing US freedom of action within the second island chain. This was mainly because even the Chinese were not thinking about it then.
The attribute that becomes much more important in that environment is range.
siegecrossbow
I really should change my personal text
- Joined
- 12 March 2012
- Messages
- 511
- Reaction score
- 1,274
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Rafale, Eurofighter, Gripen.
jsport said:.. need exciting video before USG budget sequestration..
Please define Eurocanard.
Rafale, Eurofighter, Gripen.
- Joined
- 3 June 2011
- Messages
- 17,871
- Reaction score
- 10,919
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
And this makes me wonder if there were more to ending F-22 production than generally considered. In this case maybe the F-22 is a stopgap on the road to a longer ranged fighter.
LowObservable said:
And this makes me wonder if there were more to ending F-22 production than generally considered. In this case maybe the F-22 is a stopgap on the road to a longer ranged fighter.
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Surely all of that is even more justification for the F-35???
How exactly is range such a big issue? For one, the F-35 is quite good on range. More importantly, have you heard of this new invention called aerial refueling???
LowObservable said:
Surely all of that is even more justification for the F-35???
How exactly is range such a big issue? For one, the F-35 is quite good on range. More importantly, have you heard of this new invention called aerial refueling???
bmdefiant
ACCESS: Restricted
- Joined
- 15 November 2007
- Messages
- 16
- Reaction score
- 3
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
The way i am reading the range factor is that increased range decreases the need for aerial refuelling re the Pacific Theatre, possibly with this force multiplier being one of the first targets a potential adversary would wish to neutralise in a conflict with the US.
Add to this the small (as opposed to Europe) number and spread out location of US facilities might make range an important consideration..
The way i am reading the range factor is that increased range decreases the need for aerial refuelling re the Pacific Theatre, possibly with this force multiplier being one of the first targets a potential adversary would wish to neutralise in a conflict with the US.
Add to this the small (as opposed to Europe) number and spread out location of US facilities might make range an important consideration..
- Joined
- 17 October 2006
- Messages
- 2,354
- Reaction score
- 988
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
bmedefiant - Good points. One thing that China's developments appear to be intended to do is to push the tanker line away from the coast and thereby render more of their territory immune to tactical air.
GTX - I'm not arguing that the F-35 has short range for a fighter (A and C have respectable if not spectacular range). It's a question of fighter range in general, and whether the next 20 years of airpower investment should be dominated by a fighter with conventional payload and range performance.
bmedefiant - Good points. One thing that China's developments appear to be intended to do is to push the tanker line away from the coast and thereby render more of their territory immune to tactical air.
GTX - I'm not arguing that the F-35 has short range for a fighter (A and C have respectable if not spectacular range). It's a question of fighter range in general, and whether the next 20 years of airpower investment should be dominated by a fighter with conventional payload and range performance.
- Joined
- 25 June 2009
- Messages
- 14,109
- Reaction score
- 4,244
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
I am strongly tempted to ask of PaulMM that posts about "F-35 vs. just about anything" be removed from the forum — or at the very least split into a separate section (which might be entitled "Senseless arguing and pointless discussions" or something like that...).
Seriously, all this nonsense taking place in several topics is getting overboard now.
Apart from constructive elements that truly shed light on the aircraft's development, I really do not care to read about why some members like or don't like the F-35, why they think it is or isn't a good aircraft, why this or that country ought to purchase or not purchase it. Especially in topics that are NOT about the F-35!!!
I am strongly tempted to ask of PaulMM that posts about "F-35 vs. just about anything" be removed from the forum — or at the very least split into a separate section (which might be entitled "Senseless arguing and pointless discussions" or something like that...).
Seriously, all this nonsense taking place in several topics is getting overboard now.
Apart from constructive elements that truly shed light on the aircraft's development, I really do not care to read about why some members like or don't like the F-35, why they think it is or isn't a good aircraft, why this or that country ought to purchase or not purchase it. Especially in topics that are NOT about the F-35!!!
- Joined
- 3 June 2011
- Messages
- 17,871
- Reaction score
- 10,919
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
'bout ten years late for that arguement. Cancelling the F-35 and starting over would border on insanity as nobody knows what the geopolitical situation would be 20 years from now when the "new" design would be entering service. I notice you don't promote cancelling all Eurocanards and starting over despite the fact that pretty much everybody else has decided stealth is a requirement going forward.
LowObservable said:
'bout ten years late for that arguement. Cancelling the F-35 and starting over would border on insanity as nobody knows what the geopolitical situation would be 20 years from now when the "new" design would be entering service. I notice you don't promote cancelling all Eurocanards and starting over despite the fact that pretty much everybody else has decided stealth is a requirement going forward.
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Take it up with the mods. One of the posters here has a crusade against the F-35 and can't let it go, even on this forum which is supposed to be about enthusiasm for obscure secret projects.
Stargazer2006 said:
Take it up with the mods. One of the posters here has a crusade against the F-35 and can't let it go, even on this forum which is supposed to be about enthusiasm for obscure secret projects.
- Joined
- 17 October 2006
- Messages
- 2,354
- Reaction score
- 988
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
I'll cheerfully drop the F-35 out of this argument, and return to the original core of my comment.
The "J-21" revelation is clearly deliberate and theatrical, whatever is under the tarp.
This means that someone in a position of authority is trying to send a message.
The message is presumably intended to influence perceptions and/or behavior, because that's what propaganda is.
So what message is it? That's a relevant discussion here, because it comes back to our interest - which is what is under the tarp. Could be a framework of 2 x 4s for all we know.
Oh by the way earlm - this section of the site is not about obscure secret projects, unless you consider Delta 4 Heavy, T-50 or Su-35 to be such.
I'll cheerfully drop the F-35 out of this argument, and return to the original core of my comment.
The "J-21" revelation is clearly deliberate and theatrical, whatever is under the tarp.
This means that someone in a position of authority is trying to send a message.
The message is presumably intended to influence perceptions and/or behavior, because that's what propaganda is.
So what message is it? That's a relevant discussion here, because it comes back to our interest - which is what is under the tarp. Could be a framework of 2 x 4s for all we know.
Oh by the way earlm - this section of the site is not about obscure secret projects, unless you consider Delta 4 Heavy, T-50 or Su-35 to be such.
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Messages
- 3,623
- Reaction score
- 3,688
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
Agreed, so let the F-35 out of this tread (at least politically) and go back to the main question above !!
I agree with that there's a message under this tarpaulin, but IMO - at least from my small understanding of the CHinese way of doing such things ! - these are in no way propaganda in the way discussed here.
First of all if the information from the so far reliable posters are o.k. then this "thing" is not a PLAAF project but an AVIC/SAC founded type mainly for export. we might call it the FC-2 or what ever in a few years and IF anything related from the PLA will purchase that type then it is the PLANAF as a supplement and probably successor to the J-15 carrierborne fighter. But that's surely only a few years away.
As such I would tend to say its a clear sign from SAC especially to all critics within the political establishment, the CHinese Aviation Industry complex and most of all its arc-rival CAC.
Let us remember: following the early developments - which were all !!! - quite severly delayed due to several reasons (political, technical, ...) the final indigenous design from SAC was the J-8II. The Flanker-lincence too was not an easy task and led to yet again a severe dependence to the former Soviet / Russian style of handlying systems. CAC in contrast was always more innovative and won the requirement for the J-10 (SAC remodeled J-13 failed again), lost out to the J-20 (SAC's proposal reportedly was heavier, larger, less stealthy and promised not the same performance). They lost nearly everything and as sch not only the public opinion but also the military and political leaders were loosing their faith in the former Chinese fighter developer.
This - and here I agree with You - clearly deliberate and theatrical revelation was a sign in the sense of "hey we are still alive, we also can develop moderne figthers, which may be even more profitable than the J-10 on the export market !!"
Everything else is simply too early to tell....
Deino
LowObservable said:
Agreed, so let the F-35 out of this tread (at least politically) and go back to the main question above !!
I agree with that there's a message under this tarpaulin, but IMO - at least from my small understanding of the CHinese way of doing such things !
- these are in no way propaganda in the way discussed here.First of all if the information from the so far reliable posters are o.k. then this "thing" is not a PLAAF project but an AVIC/SAC founded type mainly for export. we might call it the FC-2 or what ever in a few years and IF anything related from the PLA will purchase that type then it is the PLANAF as a supplement and probably successor to the J-15 carrierborne fighter. But that's surely only a few years away.
As such I would tend to say its a clear sign from SAC especially to all critics within the political establishment, the CHinese Aviation Industry complex and most of all its arc-rival CAC.
Let us remember: following the early developments - which were all !!! - quite severly delayed due to several reasons (political, technical, ...) the final indigenous design from SAC was the J-8II. The Flanker-lincence too was not an easy task and led to yet again a severe dependence to the former Soviet / Russian style of handlying systems. CAC in contrast was always more innovative and won the requirement for the J-10 (SAC remodeled J-13 failed again), lost out to the J-20 (SAC's proposal reportedly was heavier, larger, less stealthy and promised not the same performance). They lost nearly everything and as sch not only the public opinion but also the military and political leaders were loosing their faith in the former Chinese fighter developer.
This - and here I agree with You - clearly deliberate and theatrical revelation was a sign in the sense of "hey we are still alive, we also can develop moderne figthers, which may be even more profitable than the J-10 on the export market !!"
Everything else is simply too early to tell....
Deino
RSF
Cocidius
- Joined
- 13 February 2010
- Messages
- 36
- Reaction score
- 5
Re: Shenyang J-21 / J-31 revealed!
I'm afraid that I'm underwhelmed by the idea that SAC is somehow blazing it's own way with a new stealth fighter to show the Chinese military establishment its still viable!
While I agree with your assessment of the SAC/CAC rivalery to date I think that you've missed the boat on a critical factor - COST.
Developing stealth fighters is an incredibly expensive business and there is absolutely no way the SAC could be launching into a new program without serious funding from government and military sources in China.
The fact that the very active Chinese internet censors have allowed photos of the stealth fighter traveling road show to escape to the outside world clearly indicates that at some level there is government involvement and approval.
If you were SAC and you had been aced by your arch rival CAC on developing a large two engined air superiority fighter (the J-20), and that same rival was producing the most popular and successful fighter in Chinese military aerospace history (the J-10) what would you do to re-invent your value?
The likely answer is develop a medium size stealth fighter that will fill a niche in the future, possibly as a counter to the arrival of the F-35.
I'm afraid that I'm underwhelmed by the idea that SAC is somehow blazing it's own way with a new stealth fighter to show the Chinese military establishment its still viable!
While I agree with your assessment of the SAC/CAC rivalery to date I think that you've missed the boat on a critical factor - COST.
Developing stealth fighters is an incredibly expensive business and there is absolutely no way the SAC could be launching into a new program without serious funding from government and military sources in China.
The fact that the very active Chinese internet censors have allowed photos of the stealth fighter traveling road show to escape to the outside world clearly indicates that at some level there is government involvement and approval.
If you were SAC and you had been aced by your arch rival CAC on developing a large two engined air superiority fighter (the J-20), and that same rival was producing the most popular and successful fighter in Chinese military aerospace history (the J-10) what would you do to re-invent your value?
The likely answer is develop a medium size stealth fighter that will fill a niche in the future, possibly as a counter to the arrival of the F-35.
Similar threads
-
-
-
-
-
Shenyang Jianjiji-11 / J-11 Lightweight Fighter
- Started by Deino
- Replies: 11