"Destabilising" Russian Space Threat

[Byeman]

I think the problem for Russia is that the U.S. is about to orbit a brand new space architecture that gives it a huge information overmatch, on top of its existing superior ISR and communication capabilities. The U.S. has launches for ~200 Tracking and Transport layer satellites in the next ~15 months on the books, and the NRO likely will add 100-200 of its Starshield based platforms in the same timeframe. The capability that brings, along with the resilience of such a large constellation, required an asymmetrical response.

Huh? Not even a 10th of that amount.

 

[Forest Green]

These are not predictions, I'm reading the manual: universities in May 1968, the oil crisis of 1973, peace talks in Paris after losing the Vietnam War... I hope that at least this time there will be no terrorism at the Olympic Games, because it is also in the manual.It's all in the history books and newspaper archives.

Well, we've gone off track here, the US isn't physically involved in Ukraine, so that makes it fundamentally different to the Vietnam War, unless you replace the US with Russia in the Vietnam analogy.

 

[edwest4]

Well, we've gone off track here, the US isn't physically involved in Ukraine, so that makes it fundamentally different to the Vietnam War, unless you replace the US with Russia in the Vietnam analogy.

The U.S. is helping to fund the war in Ukraine. Just like Vietnam, President Kennedy was willing to send money and equipment but no ground troops. Same thing with Ukraine.

 

[Forest Green]

The U.S. is helping to fund the war in Ukraine. Just like Vietnam, President Kennedy was willing to send money and equipment but no ground troops. Same thing with Ukraine.

Yeah, and the USSR and Chinese were helping fund/supply the NVA during the Vietnam War, so the analogy still works better the other way around.

 

[Justo Miranda]

Well, we've gone off track here, the US isn't physically involved in Ukraine, so that makes it fundamentally different to the Vietnam War, unless you replace the US with Russia in the Vietnam analogy.

I find the current situation fascinating, history never repeats itself in the same way, even if they try to redirect it. The weaknesses of the Western world are the same as they were in 1968: middle-class families making great sacrifices to pay for their children's college, divided Europe, and the United States with the same old racial problems. Russia's strategy is also the same: to amplify already existing problems in order to disguise its weakness. I wonder what will happen this time: Twenty years of terrorism and fifty years of socialism followed by the fall of the wall? A new Russia that is more integrated into Europe? A new isolationist America? At least one thing hasn't worked as it did in 1973: oil isn't going up in price.

 

[Justo Miranda]

To quote Niels Bohr:
'It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future'.

The Germans knew that Niels Bohr was going to be flown from Sweden to Scotland in a BOAC De Havilland Mosquito Mk. VI and sent two Fw 190 A-5/U2N fighters from the Aalborg-based Nachtjagdkommando 190 to intercept him. The scientist spent most of the trip almost unconscious due to lack of oxygen, unaware that the Mosquito's crew had orders to throw him into the sea if his plane was intercepted. When, years later, someone told him how close he had come to dying, he realized that the predictions of both sides had failed.

 

[Forest Green]

I find the current situation fascinating, history never repeats itself in the same way, even if they try to redirect it. The weaknesses of the Western world are the same as they were in 1968: middle-class families making great sacrifices to pay for their children's college, divided Europe, and the United States with the same old racial problems. Russia's strategy is also the same: to amplify already existing problems in order to disguise its weakness. I wonder what will happen this time: Twenty years of terrorism and fifty years of socialism followed by the fall of the wall? A new Russia that is more integrated into Europe? A new isolationist America? At least one thing hasn't worked as it did in 1973: oil isn't going up in price.

You talk about Western problems as if Russia has none. You think it has no racial problems or poverty? They do it's just that protests tend not to be allowed. Divided Europe? Not really, there's Orban being Orban and that's about it. The only real similarity with 1968 is that Russia is invading and annexing a European country again, last time it was Czechoslovakia, this time it's Ukraine. In 1968 it took less than 2 days, this time its over 2 years and counting.

 

[Josh_TN]

Huh? Not even a 10th of that amount.

Your mileage may differ.


my edit (ON ORBIT):

0 Transport 20 York Space Systems, Lockheed Martin
0 Tracking 8 SpaceX, L3Harris

my edit (TO ORBIT INSIDE THE NEXT YEAR-ish):

1 Transport 126 York Space Systems, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman
1 Tracking 35 L3Harris, Northrop Gumman, Raytheon
1 Demo 12 York Space Systems

my edit (ON CONTRACT FOR ORBIT BY THE END OF 2027)

2 Transport 72 Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin
2 Transport 100 York Space Systems, TBA
2 Transport 44 (approx.) TBA
2 Tracking 52 (approx.) TBA
2 Demo 20 (approx.) TBA

SDA Awards Deal to York for 62 More LEO Satellites

The Space Development Agency (SDA) awarded a $615 million contract to York Space Systems for 62 satellites for its PWSA constellation.

www.airandspaceforces.com

known Falcon 9 SDA launches explicitly associated with Tranche 1 vehicles:


September 2024[379] F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Tracking layer T1TL-B[380] Polar LEO SDA

October 2024[379] F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Tracking layer T1TL-C[380] Polar LEO SDA

November 2024[379] F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Tracking layer T1TL-D[380] Polar LEO SDA

December 2024[379] F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Tracking layer T1TL-E[380] Polar LEO SDA

Q4 2024[379] F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Transport layer T1TR-C[380] Polar LEO SDA

~2025 F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Transport layer T1TL-F[451][452] Polar LEO SDA
Launch is part of Phase 2 US Air Force contract awarded in 2022.
~2025 F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Transport layer T1TR-A[451][452] Polar LEO SDA
Launch is part of Phase 2 US Air Force contract awarded in 2022.
~2025 F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Transport layer T1TR-E[451][452] Polar LEO SDA
Launch is part of Phase 2 US Air Force contract awarded in 2022.
~2025 F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Transport layer T2TL-A[451][452] Polar LEO SDA
Launch is part of Phase 2 US Air Force contract awarded in 2022.
~2025 F9 B5 VSFB,
SLC-4E SDA Tranche 1 Transport layer T2TL-C[451][452] Polar LEO SDA


The above list excludes NROL launches and several LEO launches by the SDA that are not explicit about their payloads.

List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org